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Wall Street wobbled despite the easing of Iran war tensions

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Oil stumbled as Trump blinked on his Iran ‘destruction’ rhetoric after oil zoomed over $100 and as the US is reportedly facing shortages of interceptor missiles. Techs dragged on renewed concern of the AI circular finance bubble and growing Chinese competition. Looking ahead, depending on US & Israeli political compulsions and ammunition levels, Trump may pause the full-scale Iran war till the Nov. 26 midterm elections.  But Trump may open for a surgical strike to ‘destroy’ Iran’s perceived HEUs in a deep mountain bunker to emerge 'victorious.'  Trump almost abandoned the idea of the SOH 'taking over’ from Iran. Wall Street and gold are also under pressure as the Fed may surprise this week by hiking rates without any prior indications and emphasize that the days of forward guidance are over. As of late July, Brent crude oil zoomed over $100 after a 13-day escalation of the US-Iran tit-for-tat war, and Trump blinked, opting for an unofficial pause over the weekend. The U...
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Oil heading for $100 amid escalated Iran war tensions; will Trump blink now?

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  ·        Oil is now under multiple blockades in the SOH and Red Sea amid escalating US-Iran war tensions across the Middle East. ·        Ahead of the US midterm election in Nov '26 and Israel's general election in Oct '26, both Trump and Netanyahu are under domestic political compulsions not to allow Iran to emerge stronger. ·        Elevated oil around $100 may affect Trump’s already weak political election prospects further, unless there is another ‘assassination attempt’ on him! Trump’s Iran war ‘fun’ has caused a serious phase of his political prospects in the forthcoming Nov. '26 US midterm election, which the ruling incumbent Republican party is set to lose badly. The Iran war may have entered the most devastating tit-for-tat combat amid the 10th consecutive night of heavy US airstrikes and Iran’s response in the form of asymmetrical warfare. Iran’s barrage of hypersonic missile...
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Will the Fed hike amid volatile US inflation and the escalating Iran war?

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  ·        Oil may rally further towards $100 amid escalating US-Iran war tensions and Trump’s plan to take over the SOH from Iran. ·        The US core inflation (CPI + PCE average) may hover around 3.0% in H2CY26 if Trump continues his Iran war 'excursion.' ·        Trump is now trying to take over the SOH completely from Iran’s control, something which Iran is not ready to oblige. On July 14, apart from Trump’s escalated Iran war 'fun,' the market also focused on U.S. inflation data for June. The US CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, such as food, transportation, and shelter. Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy categories to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. On July 14, the BLS data (NSA) show the annual (y/y) US core CPI inflation rose to 2.6% in June ag...
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Wall Street surged on renewed AI and Iran deal optimism; what’s next?

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  ●   Despite Trump’s ‘locked & loaded’ rhetoric, back-channel talks between the US and Iran continue. ●       Iran and Oman discuss an announcement to guarantee full and free movement for navigation in the central passage of the Strait of Hormuz. ●   But Iran's ceasefire may remain fragile due to the domestic political compulsions of each stakeholder. ●   Trump may now try to ‘take over the Strait of Hormuz to declare ‘victory’ over Iran ahead of the Nov. '26 midterm US election. After a volatile trading day, Wall Street futures closed Friday, July 10, in the green amid renewed optimism over AI and the Iran deal, despite Trump’s erratic threats. As usual, under Trump 2.0, the market moves on Trump’s morning moods, truths, and random media bytes—from tariff & trade war to Iran war. Early US Friday, Wall Street futures and gold slid, while oil and USD surged after Trump declared Iran's ceasefire is over, although negotiations may conti...
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Stocks, oil, and gold wobbled on Trump’s Iran deal ‘off & on’ parody

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  Overall comments & body language of Trump indicate his Iran war & ceasefire ‘fun’ may continue till at least the Nov. '26 US midterm election. Ahead of the Oct '26 general election in Israel, PM Netanyahu and other hardliners may not allow Iran to have a favorable deal with the US, which may portray a ‘stronger Iran.' Trump may now be seeking to ‘take over’ the SOH from Iran’s control, something that Iran may not agree to at all. In mid-June 2026, the US and Iran have taken a notable step toward de-escalation with the signing of a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (Islamabad MOU) that extends an earlier April ceasefire formally by another 60 days. This interim accord aims to reopen ‘fully’ the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) to commercial shipping, provide temporary sanctions relief to Iran, and establish a framework for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and broader regional issues. The fragile ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran seems to be crumbling after Iran...
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