The US heads into the November 3, 2026 midterm elections against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical tension, aggressive trade policy, and a president whose net approval ratings have remained deeply underwater for much of his second term. President Trump faces the classic midterm headwind that has afflicted nearly every modern president: the party controlling the White House almost always loses seats in Congress. Current polling aggregates, forecasting models, and prediction markets all point toward a high probability that Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives and face a competitive fight for the Senate. A Democratic House, or a fully divided Congress, would constrain Trump’s ability to advance major domestic legislation and turn the final two years of his term into a period of legislative (policy) paralysis. At the same time, the president retains substantial unilateral authority over tariffs, sanctions, and military posture—particularly regarding the ong...