Although there is policy space for a 25 bps rate hike—considering transitory hotter inflation and a fragile-stable, but not solid, labor market and Trump’s pressure—the Fed may be on a hawkish hold. Looking ahead, FOMC participants may continue hawkish jawboning without any rate action, as bond yields have already increased by ~50 bps since mid-May, when Warsh took over as Fed Chair. Warsh may include the trimmed mean inflation measure by regional Feds besides existing core PCE and CPI while proposing 4-6 FOMC meetings from 2027 instead of 8 in a calendar year. On Wednesday, July 29, 2026, apart from the daily dose of Trump’s monotonous reality show on his Iran war 'fun,' the focus of the market was on the 2 nd FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Warsh, a known inflation hawk. Although the market was largely expecting a hawkish hold (including the FFR probability), there was some last-minute chatter, primarily floated by hedge fund Citadel Securities, about a potential Fed rate h...