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US stocks soared on hopes & hype of an imminent Iran peace deal

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  ●       Although the war of attrition of Iran may be over, the SOH double blockade is not, and lingering elevated energy (oil & gas) may drag Wall Street & Main Street down. ●       Apart from Iran war ceasefire optimism, earnings & AI/big tech optimism are also helping Wall Street. ●       At around $1642 EPS for CY25 (GAAP) and 50000 levels, the current PE is 30 for DJ-30 , at the historical bubble zone. Wall Street futures surged over 10% in April on hopes & hype of an imminent peace deal between Iran and the US. The US-Iran peace talks remain stalled in a tense "no war, no peace" standoff, now roughly 60+ days into the conflict. The core dispute is Iran's nuclear program: the US (under President Trump) demands a comprehensive deal that permanently prevents Iran from developing nuclear weapons, while Iran wants to de-escalate other issues first and postpone nuclear discussions. K...
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New Fed Chair (nominee) Warsh – Different approach in monetary policy?

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  ●       Warsh is sounding more hawkish than earlier expectations —positive for USD and US bond yields and negative for USTs, gold, and even equities. ●       Warsh is advocating for more QTs, no more QEs (leaner Fed B/S) , and linking productivity growth against inflation vs growth dilemma—the Phillips Curve is no longer applicable. ●       Warsh may consider the trimmed mean CPI inflation as the Fed’s inflation targeting tool rather than core PCE inflation. It’s now almost certain that the US DOJ will drop the ‘Fed building renovation scam/corruption criminal’ case as alleged by Trump & Co., and thus there may be no real hurdle for the Trump-selected Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair after Powell’s exit in May. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is the world's most influential central bank. The Fed is virtually the ‘global central bank.' The Fed's monetary policies—actual action...
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