Posts

Will Trump sign the Iran MOU by this week?

Image
  ·        Although the Iran war may be over, the SOH double blockade may remain in place until Trump removes ‘nuclear dust’ from Iran. ·        After the World Cup, Trump may try to remove ‘nuclear dust’ from Iran before the US midterm election to declare US ‘victory.’ ·        In the Monday US session, Wall Street futures, gold, and oil wobbled as Iran and Israel agreed on a truce—after trading missiles earlier in the day. The 2026 Iran War, a multifaceted conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, along with its regional proxies, has entered a critical phase approximately 100 days after its outbreak in early March '25. What began as a series of coordinated US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026—aimed at degrading Iran's nuclear capabilities, missile infrastructure, and military assets—has evolved into a protracted confrontation marked by direct attacks, proxy skirmishes, and f...
Read more

Transitory hotter inflation and a stable, but not solid, US labor market: Will the Fed hike?

Image
  ·    Fine prints of the May US job report indicate a stable labor market, but not solid, as a 4.3% unemployment rate comes on the back of a -0.8% decline in LFP. ·        Despite a hotter May NFP job addition, the overall YTM average was around +114K, much lower than the +200K average standard for the US economy. ·        Real wage growth is now turning negative, while the overall economic situation may be indicating a stagflation/stagnation-like scenario. On June 5, 2026, market focus was on the US NFP/BLS job report for May '26 and the overall employment situation in the world’s biggest economy amid Trump’s chaotic policies on immigration and a trade/tariff war with Iran. The BLS Establishment Survey The latest BLS establishment survey flash data (seasonally adjusted) shows that the U.S. economy (private + public/government sector) added +172K non-farm payroll (NFP) jobs in May '26 after adding +179K sequenti...
Read more