·        But considering transitory hotter inflation and a stable but not solid labor market and Trump’s policy uncertainty, the Fed may be in wait-and-watch mode in 2026. ·        Although Fed Chair Warsh is too focused on inflation, he also downplayed June dot-plots due to likely lower inflation in the coming months amid the Iran MOU/deal ·        Warsh may start small QT in 2027 to reduce the Fed’s B/S with SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) relief for banks, so that they can buy more USTs to balance On Wednesday, June 17, 2025, apart from the US-Iran MOU suspense, the focus of the market was on the FOMC meeting, the latest SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), the Fed’s policy decisions, and new Chair Warsh’s pressers. As highly expected, the Fed holds all of its key policy rates in June '26 for the 4 th consecutive meeting after cutting rates cumulatively 75 bps in 2025. But contrary ...