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Dow, Gold, and Oil wobbled on hopes & hypes of an imminent US-Iran MOU

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  ·        Although Trump is urging Iran to make a ‘complete surrender’ with the transfer of highly enriched uranium, Iran is not in the mood to oblige him. As of May 22, 2026, the long-standing confrontation between the US and Iran appears to be approaching a critical inflection point. Following weeks of indirect negotiations mediated primarily by Pakistan, reports from influential outlets such as Al Arabiya suggest that a preliminary framework agreement — often described as a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) — is nearing finalization. This draft aims to formalize an immediate ceasefire, ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz (SOH), and establish a foundation for phased sanctions relief. The stakes could hardly be higher. The brief but intense 2026 Iran conflict, which erupted in late February with US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, has already disrupted global energy markets, heightened humanitarian concerns,...

April FOMC minutes show the Fed may be in wait-and-watch mode at least till Q3

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  ·        In the early US session on May 21, stocks and gold wobbled as Iran may or may not agree to transfer the ‘nuclear dust’ to any third country. ·        Overall, FOMC minutes show the Fed is quite hawkish on inflation and growth while moderately dovish on employment. ·        Theoretically, the Fed has to bring down both the inflation and the unemployment rate by around 100 and 50 bps for its dual mandate, and thus it has to maintain the present neutral stance rather than a restrictive or accommodative one. On May 20, 2026, some focus of the market was also on the April FOMC minutes, apart from Trump’s ongoing rhetoric on the Iran war/peace. As a recapitulation, the FOMC held a joint meeting with the Board of Governors on April 28–29, 2026. The committee left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.25%. Highlights of FOMC Minutes: April 28–29, 2026 (released May...