·        Oil may rally further towards $100 amid escalating US-Iran war tensions and Trump’s plan to take over the SOH from Iran. ·        The US core inflation (CPI + PCE average) may hover around 3.0% in H2CY26 if Trump continues his Iran war 'excursion.' ·        Trump is now trying to take over the SOH completely from Iran’s control, something which Iran is not ready to oblige. On July 14, apart from Trump’s escalated Iran war 'fun,' the market also focused on U.S. inflation data for June. The US CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, such as food, transportation, and shelter. Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy categories to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. On July 14, the BLS data (NSA) show the annual (y/y) US core CPI inflation rose to 2.6% in June ag...

  ●   Despite Trump’s ‘locked & loaded’ rhetoric, back-channel talks between the US and Iran continue. ●       Iran and Oman discuss an announcement to guarantee full and free movement for navigation in the central passage of the Strait of Hormuz. ●   But Iran's ceasefire may remain fragile due to the domestic political compulsions of each stakeholder. ●   Trump may now try to ‘take over the Strait of Hormuz to declare ‘victory’ over Iran ahead of the Nov. '26 midterm US election. After a volatile trading day, Wall Street futures closed Friday, July 10, in the green amid renewed optimism over AI and the Iran deal, despite Trump’s erratic threats. As usual, under Trump 2.0, the market moves on Trump’s morning moods, truths, and random media bytes—from tariff & trade war to Iran war. Early US Friday, Wall Street futures and gold slid, while oil and USD surged after Trump declared Iran's ceasefire is over, although negotiations may conti...

  Overall comments & body language of Trump indicate his Iran war & ceasefire ‘fun’ may continue till at least the Nov. '26 US midterm election. Ahead of the Oct '26 general election in Israel, PM Netanyahu and other hardliners may not allow Iran to have a favorable deal with the US, which may portray a ‘stronger Iran.' Trump may now be seeking to ‘take over’ the SOH from Iran’s control, something that Iran may not agree to at all. In mid-June 2026, the US and Iran have taken a notable step toward de-escalation with the signing of a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (Islamabad MOU) that extends an earlier April ceasefire formally by another 60 days. This interim accord aims to reopen ‘fully’ the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) to commercial shipping, provide temporary sanctions relief to Iran, and establish a framework for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and broader regional issues. The fragile ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran seems to be crumbling after Iran...

June NFP headline job additions were primarily dragged down by leisure & hospitality due to front-loading in April & May ahead of the FIFA World Cup. The increase in multiple jobholders (including agro) is almost equivalent to the decrease in the number of employed persons (Jan '25-June '26) due to labor force contraction and skill mismatches. If the labor force participation rate now stays around 62.6% (2024) levels instead of 61.9% (2026), the headline unemployment rate would be ~5.0% instead of 4.3% on average. Fresh US job creations are subdued due to Trump policy uncertainty despite the so-called perceived narrative of ‘Make in USA’ and AI/construction boosts. The Fed will be in wait-and-watch mode till Dec '26 amid transitory hotter inflation and a softer employment situation in the economy, which may affect US consumer spending going forward.  On July 2, 2026, the focus of the market was on the US NFP/BLS job report for June '26 and the overall employment...