·          The market is not prepared for Trump’ return gift to Modi’s birthday, as $100K annual fees on H1B Visa, which may impact Indian IT and other sectors ·          Trump may also impose some form of tariffs/taxes on Indian IT & other outsourcing services as reciprocal treatment to have a favorable trade deal with India ·          India also imposes 18% IGST on all US services in India ·          Overall, the H1B Visa policy is in line with Trump’s long-term campaign promise to ensure American jobs and MAGA ideology ·          But overall, Trump’s tone was softer than that of his Commerce Secretary and a known policy hawk, Lutnick, which may pave the way for some compromise with ‘Great Friend’ Modi/India ·          At the same time, o...

  Fed rate cut of 25 bps on September 17 is now almost discounted, but the market is also expecting another 75 bps rate cut through January ’26. Thus, all focus of the market was on the Fed’s SEP and dot-plots along with Chair Powell’s presser/Q&A. If Fed dot-plots and Powell indicate consecutive rate cuts of 25 bps in October, December and also January’26 amid Trump pressure and softening labor market despite hotter core inflation, then USD, US bond yield will fall, while Gold, UST, US stocks will gain and vice versa. Fed/Powell may indicate another rate cut of 25 bps in December’25 due to softening labor market, but may not indicate another 50 bps assured rate cuts early in H1CY26 despite Trump’s nominated Fed governors on the Fed board. Weekly/Positional Technical Outlook: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically EURUSD (1.18600) has to sustain above 1.18700-1.19000 fo...

  Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 46300) now has to sustain over 46600* for a further rally to 47100/47200 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 46500-46300 may fall to 45800/45500-45300/44900 and further to 44200/43900-43400/42400 and 41700/41200-40700/39900 in the coming days. Similarly, NQ-100 Future (24200) now has to sustain over 24400-500 for a further rally to 24700*/25000 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 24300/250, may fall to 24150-24000/23900-23750/22900 and 22400/22200-21900/20900-20700/20200 and 19890/18300-17400/16400in the coming days. Looking ahead, whatever may be the fundamental narrative, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 6600) now has to sustain over 6700 for a further rally to 6800/7000-7500/8300 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 6575/6550-6525/6500, may fall to 6450-6375/6300-6250/6200 and further fall to 6000/5800-5600/5300 in the coming days. Technically Gold (CMP: 3675) has to sust...

  ·          Overall CPI & PPI data signals 3.5-4.0% core inflation in 2026 on average from the present 3.0% in 2025; Fed may not cut more than 50 bps in H2CY25 ·          Effective weighted average Trump tariffs may increase to over 15% in H2CY25 from around 7% in H1 and 2.5% in 2024 ·          If Trump really goes on with his present tariff rates, it would be around 20% from 2026, unless Trump renegotiates it to a lower ·          Fed cut of 50 bps in 2026 is not assured even under Trump-favoured Fed board & Chair; Fed may have to deal with stagflation On September 11, 2025, apart from the ongoing Trump tariff & Fed tantrum , some focus of the market was also on U.S. inflation data for June. The US CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of con...