Gold and oil stumbled, while stocks recovered on hopes of an early ceasefire as Trump blinked on the Iran war
● As Iran is performing much better
than expected, Trump’s ‘fun’ has now turned into ‘panic’; but China supported Iran may not oblige Trump so easily.
● Although Trump is seeking an early
ceasefire, Iran may not surrender to Trump’s T&C.
● ‘Psychopath and Modern-Day Hitler': Trump’s policy of US imperialism and complete control of
the Western Hemisphere through military force may result in serious
geopolitical miscalculations and a mini WW-III
The 2026 Iran War, now entering its fourth week,
has thrust the Middle East into one of its most volatile chapters since the
early 2000s. Launched on February 28 with coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes
under Operation Epic Fury, the conflict has targeted Iranian nuclear
facilities, missile infrastructure, air defences, and senior regime figures,
including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran has responded with
ballistic/cluster and also hypersonic missiles and barrages; drone swarms; and
a de facto restriction on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz**—the narrow
chokepoint carrying approximately 20% of global oil trade apart from various
other commodities, including LNG, food, fertilisers, and even helium gas
essential for tech.
What began as a preemptive strike narrative to
degrade Iran's military capabilities and nuclear ambitions has evolved into a
complex mix of kinetic warfare, economic disruption, and high-stakes diplomacy.
Global oil prices have surged, supply chains face uncertainty, and
international actors—from European allies to Gulf States—are being drawn into
the fray.
Psycho Trump continues to entertain through his
daily dose of nonsense talks & reality shows.
At the centre of recent developments stands a
striking contrast: US
President Trump’s public optimism about imminent peace, highlighted by his
claim of a mysterious “big present” from Iran worth “a tremendous amount of
money” tied to oil, gas, and the Strait of Hormuz, versus continued military
exchanges and multinational efforts to physically secure the waterway. On March
24, Trump told reporters the gift “arrived today", was “oil and gas
related", and signalled that Washington was “dealing with the right people".
He extended a deadline to strike Iranian power plants by five days to allow
negotiations while quipping that his defence secretary and military chiefs were
disappointed at the prospect of ending the fighting soon. Simultaneously,
the United Kingdom has stepped forward to lead a “Hormuz Coalition” involving
mine-clearing operations with US and French support, including potential
autonomous vessels. Over 30 nations have signed a joint statement committing to
“appropriate efforts” to restore safe shipping.
Iran is a legacy issue for the U.S. & Russia
(USSR) after World War II over the control of oil.
The US engagement in Iran intensified after
World War II amid Cold War tensions. During the war, American, British, and
Soviet forces occupied Iran to secure supply routes and oil. Post-1945, the
USSR refused to withdraw troops from northern Iran by the agreed March 1946
deadline, sparking the Iran Crisis of 1946**—one of the first Cold War
confrontations. Stalin backed separatist movements, establishing the pro-Soviet
**Azerbaijan People's Government and the Republic of Mahabad in Iranian
Azerbaijan and Kurdistan, aiming for oil concessions and a buffer zone. US
diplomatic pressure at the United Nations, combined with Iranian negotiations,
forced Soviet withdrawal by May 1946, collapsing the puppet states.
This early Soviet expansionism heightened US
fears of communist influence. By the early 1950s, Iran's democratically elected
Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh nationalised the British-controlled oil
industry, prompting an economic crisis. Fearing Mossadegh's government might
drift toward the Soviet-backed Tudeh Party, the US and UK orchestrated
Operation Ajax (1953 coup). The CIA and MI6 funded protests, bribed officials,
and supported military elements to overthrow Mossadegh and restore Shah
Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The coup secured Western oil access and entrenched the
Shah as a pro-US ally, but it bred long-term Iranian resentment against foreign
interference.
This pattern—countering Soviet moves while
intervening directly—shaped decades of US-Iran relations, from alliance to
enmity after the 1979 Revolution.
The 1970s Oil Crisis, Yom Kippur War, and
US/Israel-Iran Involvement: Iran was an ally of the US
The 1973 Oil Crisis erupted during the Yom
Kippur War (October 6–25, 1973), when Egypt and Syria launched a surprise
attack on Israel to reclaim territories lost in 1967. Israel, facing heavy
losses, urgently requested US aid. President Nixon ordered a massive airlift
(Operation Nickel Grass) and approved $2.2 billion in emergency military
supplies, helping Israel reverse the tide.
In retaliation, Arab members of OAPEC (led by
Saudi Arabia) imposed a total oil embargo on the United States and other
pro-Israel nations on October 20, while cutting overall production. Global oil
prices quadrupled from ~$3 to over $12 per barrel, triggering gasoline
shortages, long queues at US pumps, stagflation, and a severe economic downturn
in the West.
The US was directly targeted for supporting
Israel, exposing its growing dependence on imported oil. In contrast, Iran
under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi — a close US ally and non-Arab OPEC member —
refused to join the embargo. Iran continued full oil production and exports,
helping mitigate global shortages. The Shah actively pushed for higher OPEC
prices, which dramatically boosted Iran’s revenues and funded his massive
military buildup with US weapons. This petrodollar windfall strengthened the
US-Iran alliance, with Iran acting as the “policeman of the Gulf". The
embargo ended in March 1974, but the crisis reshaped global energy politics and
highlighted Iran’s strategic value to Washington.
Eventually, the 1979 Iranian Revolution
overthrew the US-backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi after months of mass
protests against
authoritarian rule, corruption, inequality, and Western cultural influence.
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile in February 1979, establishing
the Islamic Republic via referendum. In November 1979, radical students seized
the US Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days. This
crisis severed diplomatic ties, triggered US sanctions, and branded Iran the
“Great Satan” in revolutionary ideology.
The revolution created instability that Saddam
Hussein exploited. On
September 22, 1980, Iraq invaded Iran, launching the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988).
Saddam aimed to seize oil-rich Khuzestan, control the Shatt al-Arab waterway,
and crush the spread of Islamic revolution. The war became a brutal eight-year
stalemate with over 500,000–1 million deaths, extensive use of chemical weapons
by Iraq, and the “Tanker War” in the Persian Gulf.
The US involvement was decisive yet
contradictory. Washington
tilted strongly toward Iraq to prevent an Iranian victory and contain
revolutionary exports. The Reagan administration provided intelligence
(satellite imagery) and economic aid, dual-use technology and removed Iraq from
the terrorism sponsors list. The US Navy operations (Earnest Will and Praying
Mantis) protected Gulf shipping, favouring Iraq, while the accidental downing
of Iran Air Flight 655 (290 civilians killed) in 1988 deepened Iranian grievances.
Paradoxically, the US secretly sold arms to Iran in the Iran-Contra Affair
to free hostages in Lebanon.
Iran accepted a UN-brokered ceasefire in August
1988 with no territorial gains but immense human and economic costs. The war
hardened the Islamic Republic’s anti-US stance and boosted the Revolutionary
Guards’ (IRGC) power.
The 2003 US-Iraq War and the Killing of Saddam
Hussein
The US-led invasion of Iraq (Operation Iraqi
Freedom) began on March 20, 2003, after President Bush issued a 48-hour
ultimatum to Saddam Hussein to leave power. The primary stated reasons were
Iraq’s alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), links to
terrorism, and Saddam’s brutal dictatorship. A US-British coalition (with
smaller forces from Australia, Poland, and others) launched airstrikes and a
rapid ground offensive from Kuwait.
Iraqi resistance was disorganised; Baghdad fell
on April 9, 2003, with iconic images of Saddam’s statue being toppled.
President Bush declared “major combat operations” over on May 1 aboard the USS
Abraham Lincoln (“Mission Accomplished”). No large WMD stockpiles were found,
undermining the main justification.
Saddam Hussein went into hiding. His sons, Uday
and Qusay, were killed in a shootout in Mosul in July 2003. On December 13,
2003, US forces captured Saddam in a “spider hole” near his hometown of Tikrit
during Operation Red Dawn. He offered no resistance.
Tried by an Iraqi Special Tribunal for crimes
against humanity (specifically the 1982 Dujail massacre), Saddam was convicted
and sentenced to death. He was executed by hanging on December 30, 2006, during
Eid al-Adha, in Baghdad. The invasion triggered a long insurgency, sectarian
civil war, and massive instability that lasted years, with thousands of US and
coalition troops and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi deaths.
Iran’s Role in the 2003–2011 US-Iraq War
Iran played a highly opportunistic and
ultimately victorious role during the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq
(2003–2011). The toppling of its arch-enemy Saddam Hussein — who had invaded
Iran in 1980 — was viewed in Tehran as a historic gift, despite public
opposition to the American invasion.
Iran adopted a dual strategy:
●
Political track: Iranian-backed Shia parties (Supreme Council for Islamic
Revolution in Iraq / SCIRI, Dawa Party) and exiles who had lived in Iran for
decades quickly gained power in the new Shia-dominated government in Baghdad.
●
Military track: The IRGC’s Quds Force, commanded by Qassem Soleimani, armed,
trained, and funded Shia militias (Badr Organisation, Mahdi Army, Kata’ib
Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq). These groups received advanced Explosively
Formed Penetrators (EFPs), rockets, and training — often with Hezbollah
instructors — and launched thousands of attacks on US and coalition forces.
US officials later attributed at least 600
American deaths to Iranian-backed militias. Iran also helped channel Sunni jihadis into
Iraq to further bleed US forces. By the time US troops withdrew in 2011, Iran
had achieved its core goals: elimination of Saddam’s regime, installation of a
friendly Shia government in Baghdad, and creation of a powerful proxy militia
network deeply embedded in Iraqi politics and security forces. Iran was the
only real strategic winner of the 2003 Iraq War, transforming a former bitter
enemy into a key ally and significantly expanding its regional influence.
Post-war, relations remained hostile: US sanctions intensified over terrorism support
and the nuclear program; the 2015 JCPOA offered temporary relief but was
abandoned by Trump in 2018. Proxy conflicts, Soleimani’s 2020 killing, and
failed diplomacy culminated in the 2026 Iran War. On February 28, 2026,
US-Israeli strikes targeted Iranian nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and
leadership (killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei). Iran retaliated with missiles
and restricted the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 2026, fighting continues
alongside mixed diplomatic signals, UK-led coalition efforts to reopen Hormuz,
and profound regional instability rooted in 47 years of mutual distrust.
Why Trump Withdrew from the JCPOA
On May 8, 2018, President Trump (1st
term) announced the US withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA) — the Iran nuclear deal negotiated under President Obama — and
reimposed sweeping sanctions under a “maximum pressure” campaign. Trump
repeatedly called the JCPOA “the worst deal ever negotiated” and “horrible,
one-sided". His main reasons were:
●
Temporary and insufficient: The deal only delayed (not permanently
blocked) Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon. Key restrictions on centrifuges,
enrichment levels, and stockpiles had “sunset clauses” expiring after 10–15
years.
●
Ignored broader threats: It failed to address Iran’s ballistic
missile programme, support for terrorism, or proxy militias (Hezbollah,
Hamas, and Houthis).
●
Bad faith by Iran: Trump accused Iran of negotiating dishonestly
and hiding past nuclear weapons research. He cited Israeli intelligence
presented by Prime Minister Netanyahu showing Iran had lied.
●
Enriched the regime: Sanctions relief gave Iran billions of
dollars that funded regional aggression rather than bringing peace or
stability.
Trump argued that the deal legitimised and
empowered the Iranian regime without solving the core problem. Instead, he
pursued a tougher, more comprehensive agreement that would permanently deny
Iran a nuclear weapon and curb its malign activities. In his second term
(2025–2026), Trump has again pushed for a “better deal” through sanctions and
military pressure, while claiming productive talks are underway amid the
ongoing 2026 Iran war.
Iran-Israel and Iran-GCC relations
Iran-Israel Relations
Pre-1979, Iran (under the Shah) and Israel
enjoyed close strategic, economic, and intelligence ties as part of Israel’s
“Alliance of the Periphery". The 1979 Islamic Revolution turned Iran into
a theocratic republic that ideologically rejected Israel as the “Little
Satan". Relations shifted to a decades-long shadow war involving
cyberattacks (e.g., Stuxnet), assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists,
Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in Syria, and Iranian support for
anti-Israel proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Houthis).
Tensions escalated dramatically: direct missile
exchanges in 2024; the 12-Day War in June 2025 (Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear/military
sites with US support); and the ongoing 2026 Iran War, launched on February 28,
2026. Joint US-Israeli airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and
degraded Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities. Iran retaliated with
ballistic missile barrages on Israeli cities, causing civilian casualties. The
conflict remains active amid mixed signals of US-Iran talks.
Iran-GCC Relations
Historically tense due to sectarian (Shia-Sunni)
rivalry, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and proxy conflicts (Yemen, Syria). A brief
2023 China-brokered Saudi-Iran détente offered hope for de-escalation. However,
the 2026 war shattered this: Iran launched thousands of missiles and drones at
all six GCC states (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman),
targeting US bases, airports, hotels, and energy infrastructure in retaliation
for hosting US/Israeli operations. The UAE and Saudi Arabia suffered the
heaviest hits.
GCC states, initially reluctant, now show
growing unity and anger ─ several (especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia) are considering direct military
involvement or supporting further degradation of Iran’s capabilities. The war
has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, caused economic shocks, and pushed GCC
countries closer to the US-Israel axis while exposing their vulnerability.
Long-term, a weakened Iran could reshape regional power dynamics, but risks of
instability remain high.
Iran War 2026 ─ The Origins and Early Phase of
the Conflict
The war’s roots lie in long-standing concerns
(?) over Iran’s perceived nuclear programme, its ballistic missile arsenal, and
its support for proxy militias (the “Axis of Resistance”), including Hezbollah,
Hamas, and the Houthis. Tensions escalated throughout 2025 with Israeli strikes
on Iranian targets and indirect US-Iran talks that ultimately collapsed. On
February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched hundreds of strikes, claiming to
have significantly degraded Iran’s capabilities. Iranian retaliation included
missile attacks on Israel, US bases in the Gulf, and energy infrastructure in
neighbouring states, alongside restrictions on Hormuz shipping that reduced
daily transits from hundreds to a mere handful.
Casualties have mounted: Iranian sources report
over 1,300 deaths (including civilians), while Israel and the US have suffered
smaller but notable losses. Infrastructure damage in Tehran, Isfahan, and other
cities has caused widespread blackouts and economic strain. Iran appointed
Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, who has vowed continued resistance.
The Strait of Hormuz: Economic Chokepoint and
Strategic Flashpoint
The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the
conflict’s most critical economic theatre. Iran’s actions—threats to shipping,
reported mining, and selective permissions—have disrupted roughly 15–21 million
barrels of oil per day. Global energy markets reacted sharply, with prices
spiking above $100 per barrel at peaks before partial stabilisation amid
uncertainty.
Trump’s response has been characteristically
direct and transactional.
On March 20, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum
threatening to “obliterate” Iranian power plants unless the strait was fully
reopened. When the deadline approached, he extended it by five days, citing
“productive” talks and the mysterious "present". Trump described the
concession as non-nuclear but explicitly linked to oil and gas flows through
Hormuz, suggesting Iran had quietly eased restrictions or provided guarantees
on specific shipments. He further asserted that the US would “have control of
anything we want” post-conflict and predicted the war would end soon.
Latest Update on US-Iran Diplomacy (as of March
24, 2026)
Israeli Channel 12 reported that the US has
delivered a 15-point peace plan to Iran via mediators, including Pakistan (with
Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir playing a key intermediary role). The
plan is being developed by Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Key US Demands in the 15-Point Plan.
According to multiple sources citing the
document:
●
No uranium enrichment on Iranian soil — A core red line: complete
halt to all enrichment activities inside Iran.
●
Iran must hand over or allow the removal of its
existing enriched uranium stockpile (Trump has publicly stated the US would
“take it ourselves” if needed).
●
Decommission or permanently disable key nuclear facilities
(Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow) damaged in earlier strikes.
●
Suspend or severely limit the ballistic missile programme (reportedly
for at least five years).
●
Address maritime security and safe passage through the Strait of
Hormuz.
●
Broader commitments to curb regional proxy activities and prevent
nuclear weapon development.
Trump has emphasised that “no nuclear weapon” is
point 1, 2, and 3 of any deal. In exchange, the US is reportedly offering
security guarantees and possible sanctions relief.
Proposed One-Month Ceasefire Mechanism
The plan includes a one-month ceasefire during
which both sides would negotiate the full 15-point agreement. This temporary
pause would allow talks without immediate further escalation. Trump has already
extended his deadline to strike Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure
by five days (until ~March 27–28), citing “productive conversations".
Reactions and Reality Check
●
Trump’s stance: He claims “major points of agreement” have been
reached and that the US is “dealing with the right people". He says
Iran “wants to make a deal".
●
Iran’s response: Iranian officials (including Parliament Speaker
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf) and state media continue to deny any serious
negotiations are occurring, calling Trump’s statements “fake news” aimed at
manipulating oil markets. They insist no direct talks have taken place.
●
Pakistan’s role: Islamabad has offered to host high-level talks
(possibly as early as March 26–27) if both sides agree.
This represents the most concrete diplomatic
proposal since the war began on February 28. The 15-point plan is extremely
tough on Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities — essentially demanding zero
enrichment on Iranian territory and removal of existing stockpiles. Whether
Iran accepts even a temporary ceasefire for talks remains highly uncertain,
especially while strikes and missile exchanges continue. The situation is fluid
and contradictory: optimistic US signals versus Iranian public denials. The next
48–72 hours (including any potential Pakistan-hosted meeting) will be critical.
A one-month pause could open space for real negotiations — or collapse quickly
if core demands are rejected.
US Military Buildup in the 2026 Iran War – No
Major Ground Invasion This Weekend?
The US may be preparing to launch a major ground
invasion of mainland Iran by this weekend (March 28–30, 2026). Reports of
~5,000 Marines and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division reflect
contingency planning to expand options, but it may or may not be an imminent
large-scale offensive. Approximately 5,000 Marines (from the 31st
and 11th Marine Expeditionary Units) plus supporting sailors and
warships are deploying or en route to the Middle East. The 31st MEU
is expected to arrive by the end of March. Elements of the 82nd
Airborne Division (~3,000 troops from its Immediate Response Force) are also
being prepared for possible deployment, with orders reportedly issued or
imminent.
These forces are positioned primarily for:
● Securing or escorting shipping in
the Strait of Hormuz.
● Potential limited amphibious or
airborne operations to seize Kharg Island (Iran’s main oil export terminal
handling ~90% of its exports) or small strategic islands at the strait’s
entrance.
● Supporting the UK-led international
mine-clearing coalition.
Senior US officials and President Trump have
stated there are no current plans for large numbers of ground troops inside
Iran proper. The deployments aim to increase leverage amid ongoing airstrikes
and diplomacy, including the proposed 15-point plan and one-month ceasefire
talks.
Multinational Response: The UK-Led Hormuz
Coalition
While Trump floats diplomatic breakthroughs,
allies are preparing contingency measures. British officials told *The Times*
that the Royal Navy will lead mine-clearing efforts, deploying specialised
vessels and potentially autonomous systems alongside US and French forces. The
UK has offered to host a summit for the coalition of over 30 nations that
signed a joint statement condemning Iranian interference with commercial
traffic.
This effort reflects European caution:
reluctance to commit combat assets directly to active hostilities, but
recognition that a prolonged closure of Hormuz would inflict global economic
pain. France has signalled its willingness to conduct escort operations once
threats diminish. Mine countermeasures are technically challenging and
time-consuming, especially under potential Iranian coastal missile or drone
threats. The operation underscores a broader “freedom of navigation” framing,
distinct from the core US-Israeli military campaign.
Parallel Military and Diplomatic Tracks
Despite talk of peace, fighting continues. Iran
has launched fresh missile barrages targeting Israeli cities and areas in Iraq,
with some impacts causing injuries and damage. US and Israeli strikes persist
against IRGC targets, command centres, and missile production sites. Additional
US troops, including elements of the 82nd Airborne, are deploying to
the region. Trump has claimed the US has largely achieved its military
objectives and is shifting toward winding down, though Israel maintains the
campaign is “not over". European leaders, including European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen, have called for negotiations and an end to
hostilities. Pakistan has reportedly offered to host potential high-level talks
as early as March 26.
The “present” Trump referenced remains opaque
but appears designed to signal Iranian flexibility on energy issues—possibly
allowing blocked oil sales, guaranteeing safe passage for certain tankers, or
halting new mining activities in designated lanes. Such a gesture would carry
enormous monetary value in avoiding disruption and restoring market confidence.
Iran has received a 15-point ceasefire proposal
from the United States,
delivered through Pakistani intermediaries, according to two senior Pakistani
officials speaking to the AP. The broad outline of the US plan includes:
●
Rollback of Iran’s nuclear programme (including a full halt to uranium
enrichment on Iranian soil and dismantlement of key facilities).
●
Permanent commitment that Iran will never pursue nuclear weapons.
●
IAEA monitoring and verification.
●
Limits on Iran’s ballistic missile programme.
●
Full access and safe passage for international shipping through
the Strait of Hormuz.
●
Possible security guarantee, sanctions relief and civilian nuclear
cooperation (e.g., support for electricity generation at Bushehr).
The proposal envisions a one-month ceasefire to
allow detailed negotiations on the full 15-point agreement. Pakistan has
offered to host talks in Islamabad as early as this week, with Army Chief Field
Marshal Syed Asim Munir acting as a key intermediary. Trump’s envoys Steve
Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly driving the effort.
Iran has publicly rejected the US 15-point
ceasefire proposal as “excessive” and "unreasonable", according to a
senior Iranian political-security official speaking to state broadcaster Press
TV.
Instead, Tehran has outlined its own five core
conditions that must be fully met before any end to the war:
●
Complete and immediate halt to all attacks and assassinations of
leaders (by the US and Israel).
●
Establishment of concrete, guaranteed mechanisms to prevent the
recurrence of war.
●
Clear determination and guaranteed payment of reparations for war
damages.
●
End of the war on all fronts, including a halt to attacks on
Iran’s regional “resistance” allies (especially Hezbollah).
●
International recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of
Hormuz as its “natural and legal right", which Tehran says must serve as a guarantee for the other
side’s commitments.
●
Official toll tax for maintaining the Strait of Hormuz (like Egypt
charges for the Panama Canal)
The Iranian official added: “Iran’s defensive operations will continue until its conditions are
met.”
Tehran has made clear it will not enter
negotiations until these demands are accepted and insists the war will end on
Iran’s timeline and terms, not Washington’s.
Conclusions
Iran continues to publicly deny that any serious
negotiations are underway.
In response, Iran has presented its own demands via back channels, including
reparations for US-Israeli strikes, lifting of all sanctions, closure of US
military bases in the Gulf, and an end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah. Iran
may not even agree to negotiate about its ballistic missile programmes at all.
Iran may not agree to Trump’s 15-point peace plan conditions, which are
basically an unconditional surrender. After two successive backstabbings ─
first in mid-2025 (Iran-Israel) and second during the recent start of the
US/Israeli air strike (February 28 conflict) ─ despite ongoing negotiations,
Iran is now reluctant to engage in any serious negotiations with the US, which
the US/Israel may use as a refilling of ammunition.
In fact, the US/Pentagon has reached agreements
with defence contractors (companies BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, Boeing and
Honeywell) to boost production amid a shift to a ‘wartime footing’. Under the
deals,
●
Honeywell Aerospace will “surge production of critical components
for America’s munitions stockpile" as part of a $500 million multi-year investment.
●
BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin will also quadruple production of
seekers for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) interceptor, which
has been used to intercept ballistic missiles launched at Israel from Iran.
●
A new framework agreement with Lockheed will accelerate production
of its Precision Strike Missiles.
So far, in the real war, Iran has performed much
better than expected, thanks to the direct/indirect active support of China,
Russia and North Korea in terms of not only precise target coordinates but also
high-tech cluster, ICBM and hypersonic missile technologies and critical
materials. Iran’s latest hypersonic
& cluster missiles and ICBMs – both in quality & quantity – may have
put Trump & Co on the back foot, and Trump offered a 5- and then 30-day ceasefire
and a nuclear deal proposal, which may be identical to the Obama era 2015
JCPOA. Iran’s latest ballistic missile tech and uniqueness (separation of main
missile and booster, like a sub-missile) have baffled Israel's Iron Dome
protection (interceptors). Russia recently reportedly supplied Iran a significant
number of S400s, which also improved Iranian defence against US/Israeli
strikes.
Above & overall, the arsenal of US &
Israeli missiles, including interceptors, is depleting fast compared to Iran,
which has been preparing for this eventual direct war with the US for the last
40 years. Iran has prepared deep underground (buried below mountains) ‘missile
cities’ and bunkers for this ‘D-Day’. And without the active support of China
in terms of rare earth materials, both the US and Israel may not replenish
missile stocks quickly ─ China may not help them easily. Thus, Iran is now at
an advantage and may not slow down or agree to a quick ceasefire. Moreover,
Iran’s strike on Dimona (Israel’s nuclear facility) and Diego Garcia (US-UK
military base – over 4000 km distance) changed the equation in favour of Iran.
The US & Israel are now basically engaged in a proxy war with Russia &
China through Iran, like the Ukraine war, where the US & NATO are in a
proxy war with Russia.
As per the latest report by the Iranian news
agency FARS:
●
Iran wants a full end to the war, not just a temporary ceasefire
●
Iran may not accept a ceasefire or enter talks with parties that
breached agreements
●
Iran does not accept a ceasefire, says US talks are illogical
●
IRAN SAYS US STEPPED UP EFFORTS TO SECURE CEASEFIRE
Overall, it seems that despite the devastation,
Iran is not in a hurry to negotiate with the US, while the US/Trump is now
virtually begging for immediate negotiations and a ceasefire. Trump is under
pressure due to the following:
●
Adverse domestic political compulsions ─ most of the ordinary
Americans do not approve of Trump ─ be it the Iran/Ukraine war (foreign policy)
or the trade & tariff war (economic & trade policy)
●
There
is huge global pressure to end the Iran war ASAP, as it may cause a synchronised energy crisis and GFC if
allowed to linger more than 2-3 months.
●
Trump is set to lose the mid-term (Nov '26) and trifecta
●
The US & Israel are now running low on missiles/interceptors
●
Earlier, Trump may have planned for a quick end to his ’fun war’ with
Iran, which is now fast turning into a lingering 'panic war'.
●
This may eventually prompt Trump/Israel to use some type of
tactical nuclear weapons, and the subsequent chain of events may also result in
a mini-WW-III (conventional or even tactical nuclear), as we have
seen during WW-I & II.
Is ‘Psycho & Modern Day Hitler’ ─ Trump
pushing the world to a mini WWIII and another GFC for his ‘Iran war fun’?
The US economy is the biggest beneficiary in
terms of both military equipment and oil & gas (energy) producers as a
direct fallout of any major geopolitical tensions or wars. Likewise, Russia
also benefits, and now even China, as China is now one of the leading exporters
of military equipment (both hardware and software). From 1945 (WW-II), the US is a war-savvy
economy ─ like an imperialist country ─ either directly or indirectly (through
CIA-led covert operations) ─ engaged in favourable regime change for any
country, be it friend or foe. The US involvement in the Middle East during the
1970s-80s and 2000s was for energy (oil).
Now, even in 2026, Trump – the ‘modern-day
Hitler' – is behaving like a psychopath (Tariffman to Madman) and an autocrat
with an imperialist, colonialist and expansionist mentality for the restoration
of 1990s-2000s global hegemony and energy dominance (oil & gas and also
rare earth materials). After Venezuela & Iran, Trump & his psycho team
(inner circle – except VP Vance) are also targeting Cuba, Colombia, almost all
of South America and West Asia (Iran, Iraq and even Gaza). Trump and his main
right hand, ‘Narco’ Rubio, have recently made comments supporting the
19th-century US/Western imperialism & expansionist policies – although it
sounds like a nonsensical foreign policy in today’s modern age, it may trigger
a series of geopolitical miscalculations for even a mini WW-III if the next US
administrations continue.
Although Trump may be trying to contain China,
in reality, he may be a Russian/Putin ‘asset’ or 'sympathiser' – almost all
major Trump moves are now benefiting Russia and eventually China – from trade
war to Iran war. China is now emerging as the biggest superpower by 2050 in
terms of economy, technology and military. China is largely war-neutral and has
not engaged directly in any significant war since the 1960s episode with India.
Thus, China may replace the US in the coming years, and CNY (Yuan) may become a
real alternative to USD.
Market impact
●
Stocks recovered from a deep loss after Trump announced an
unexpected and unilateral, but vague 5-day initial Iran war ceasefire on early
US Monday, March 23, 2026 ─ just before the US future market opens in a clear
sign of insider trading (known pattern of Trump)
●
Oil plunged, but Gold also
recovered & surged.
●
Gold surged despite Trump’s ceasefire announcement while tumbling during
the war – why such an aberration for the safe-haven asset?
●
The
Iran war causes a virtual cessation of oil & gas sales by GCC (Gulf) producers as a result
of the SOH blockade; thus, GCC
investors/sovereigns may be selling (booking phenomenal profit) precious metals
(Gold & Silver) to fund the deficit. Thus, gold is now behaving abnormally, going lower on Iran war escalation and vice versa.
Technical
outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500 and Gold
Looking ahead,
whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 46700) now
has to sustain over 46600 for a further rally to 47600*/47800-48300/48800 and
49150*/49500-49700/50000-50600/51000 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining
below 46400, DJ-30 may fall to 46000/45700*-45200*/45000 and 43800/43000-42000/39000-36800
in the coming days (base to worst-case scenario).
Similarly, NQ-100
Future (24360) now has to sustain over 24100 for a further rally to
24600/25000-25500/26000 and 26200/26500-26700/27000 in the coming days;
otherwise, sustaining below 24000/23900, NQ-100 may fall to
23600/23300-22800/22400 and 21900-21000 in the coming days.
Looking at the
chart, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 6640) now has to sustain over 6600 for a
further rally to 6700/6800-6885/6925 and 6955/6975-7000/7100 and
7200/7300-7500/8300 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below
6600-6500/6450, it may further fall to 6350/6300-6250/6180 and 5860-4800 in the
coming days.
Looking at the
chart, Technically Gold (CMP: 4500) has to sustain over 4700-4755 to
4900/5000-5050/5200 and 5400-5600 zone in the coming days; otherwise sustaining
below 4675-4600, Gold may again fall to 4500/4390-4300/4260*-4230/4170 and
4135/4110-3940/3820 and 3745/3680-3640/3600 levels in the coming days.
