Gold and stocks on a roller coaster as the Iran MOU may be ready pending Trump’s approval

 

·       The market is confident that Trump will sign the MOU despite the fragile ceasefire and Trump’s ‘peace through strength’ approach.

·       Now the question is, will Trump agree, and whether Iran will agree to such an ‘unrestricted’ Strait of Hormuz without any toll?

On early Wednesday, May 27, 2026, the European session, stocks, and gold surged, while oil slid after Iran announced a framework/draft of a potential deal with the US. Iranian officials presented their versions of the MOU, relatively favorable interpretations of the draft framework:

· Lifting the US naval blockade and withdrawal of American forces from the adjoining areas within 30 days.

·       Reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iran-Oman management.

·       A 60-day (extendable) extension of the current ceasefire and a period for a final deal.

· A $300 billion Iran reconstruction program, gradual sanctions relief, oil sale exemptions, and gradual release of blocked funds.

· Iran is committing not to build nuclear weapons, with a framework for uranium stockpiles and enrichment to be decided later.

· Freezing Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for no new US sanctions.

Iran state TV: The draft US framework (MOU) would lift the blockade and reopen Hormuz.

Iranian state TV said the country had obtained a draft of an initial, unofficial framework for a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the US that would reopen commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) and end the US naval blockade. According to the state TV, under the reported framework, the US would withdraw military forces from Iran’s vicinity and lift the blockade, while Iran would restore the number of commercial transit ships through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within one month. Iranian state TV said military vessels were not included in the draft agreement. It said the management and routing of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would be handled by Iran in cooperation with Oman. The report said that if a final deal is reached within 60 days, the arrangement would be approved as a binding UN Security Council resolution. Iranian state TV described the so-called Islamabad memorandum framework as not yet finalized and said Tehran would take no step without tangible verification.

White House: Iran talks progressing, nuclear red line unchanged

· President Trump would only agree to a deal that serves the interests of the American people and ensures Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.

·       President Trump had made his red lines clear and had said negotiations were going well.

On Wednesday, May 28, Trump said Iran wants a deal, but talks have not reached a result.

Speaking at a Cabinet meeting at the White House, Trump said he and his admin were not satisfied with the current state of negotiations with Tehran. President Trump said Iran was very eager to reach an agreement with the United States, but said talks had not produced a result so far: "Iran is very much intent; they want very much to make a deal. So far, they haven't gotten there ... we're not satisfied with it, but we will be. We will be either that, or we'll have to just finish the job." In a separate interview with PBS News, Trump said Tehran would receive no concessions or sanctions relief in exchange for handing over its highly enriched uranium. He said any such arrangement would not include the lifting of sanctions.

·       Hormuz will open under the Iran deal, ruling out sanctions relief.

·       Hormuz would be open to all under any deal with Iran and would not be controlled by any country, while ruling out sanctions relief or financial concessions to Tehran.

·       Hormuz was in international waters, and the US would monitor the waterway.

·       No, the strait’s going to be open to everybody, sir—it's international waters. Nobody’s going to control it—we're going to watch over it.

·       Iran would like to control the Strait, but this would not be allowed.

·       They would like to control it. Nobody’s going to control it. It’s international waters.

·       Asked about Oman’s role, Trump said Oman would have to act like other countries, adding in a warning that the United States would use force if necessary.

· Oman will behave just like everybody else, and we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that. They’ll be fine---

·       The United States had enough energy supplies of its own, and the Hormuz crisis was mainly a global problem because many other countries rely more heavily on energy flows through the region.

· Oil prices would come down, and they argued that without US strikes, Iran would have obtained a nuclear weapon quickly.

·       If we didn’t hit them with the B-2 bombers, Iran would have had a nuclear weapon within two weeks from that day because they were ready to go,” Trump said.

·       Trump also defended his earlier decision to withdraw from the Obama-era nuclear deal, saying Iran would otherwise have obtained and used a nuclear weapon---It would have blown up Israel. It would have blown up the entire Middle East. And that’s never going to happen—

·       Trump separately ruled out sanctions relief or the release of funds for Iran as part of the current talks: “No, we’re not talking about any easing of sanctions or giving money—no sanctions, no money, no nothing.”

· Trump said Washington controls funds that Iran says belong to it and would keep control of them for now: “When they behave properly and when they do what’s right, we’ll let them have their money. But right now, we’re not doing that, and one thing is not contingent on the other.”

·       Trump said Iran appeared to be giving the United States some of what Washington is demanding but warned that failure to do so could trigger renewed military action: “I think they’re starting to give us the things that they have to give us, and if they do, that’s great, and if they won’t, then the man on my left is going to finish them off,” Trump said, apparently referring to War Secretary Pete Hegseth.

·       Asked about a timeframe, Trump said developments could move quickly but pushed back against pressure to set deadlines, comparing the current conflict with longer US wars in Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan.

The US Secretary of War, Hegseth, said the US is ready to resume military action if Iran talks fail.

Speaking at a White House Cabinet meeting, Hegseth said President Donald Trump had created the conditions to protect Americans and the wider world from what he called a generational threat from Iran.

·       There’s only one man over the course of both presidencies who has stood up and said they will never get a nuclear weapon.

·       He cited Trump’s killing of Qasem Soleimani, withdrawal from the Obama-era nuclear deal, the 12-day war, and subsequent US military operations against Iran as part of a broader pressure campaign aimed at stopping Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

·       Hegseth said the United States had avoided what he described as the old approach of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars: “Instead," he said, "we're going to do this smart. " We’re going to do it overwhelmingly. We’re going to use maximum lethality. And we’re going to bring them to their knees.”

·       He said Iran’s navy was “at the bottom of the Persian Gulf” and that its air force, air defenses, and defense industrial base had been heavily damaged: “They may have missiles, but they can’t build more right now. And they can’t build more drones right now. And they can’t build more ships."

·       Hegseth said those losses helped bring Tehran to talks with US envoys, including Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Vice President JD Vance.

·       He also said the United States had imposed a “world-class blockade” on Iranian ports, preventing goods from entering or leaving and badly hurting Iran’s economy: “We know from the intel that their economy is hurting big time because that is their lifeblood."

·       Hegseth added that Washington had expanded pressure on Iran’s shadow tanker fleet: "No Iranian tanker around the globe is safe,” he said, pointing to seizures he said had further choked off Tehran’s economic lifeline.

·       He said the goal remained to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, either through negotiations or, if necessary, by returning to military action.

US Secretary of State Rubio: The US sees progress toward the Iran agreement.

· President Donald Trump prefers a negotiated diplomatic path with Iran, and talks have made some progress, but he warned that Washington has other options if diplomacy fails.

· The bottom line is Iran is never going to have a nuclear weapon.

·       Recent events had reinforced Washington’s view that Tehran should never be allowed to obtain one.

· President Trump had repeatedly made clear that negotiations were his preferred route.

·       Diplomacy is always the first option.

· US envoys, including Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Vice President JD Vance, had been involved in the effort.

·       If there’s an agreement to be made, we want that to be made.

·       There had been some progress and some interest in the talks, adding that Washington would see “over the next few hours and days” whether further progress could be made.

·       The US would give diplomacy every chance to succeed, but President Trump had other options available if negotiations failed.

On May 28, Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba, in a written message, calls on the legislative authority to

· Act swiftly to address the people's economic concerns.

·       Prevent division and social disintegration in Iran.

·       Prioritize national interests over factionalism.

· Focus on national unity in Iran.

Doubts deepen over Khamenei’s role in Tehran’s US talks.

A source close to the Tehran-Washington negotiations told Iran International there are doubts over whether Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the Islamic Republic’s negotiating team are fully coordinated with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. The source said there were serious ambiguities over how much Khamenei knows about the talks and the extent to which the negotiating team understands the Trump administration.

Ghalibaf and Araghchi’s recent trip to Qatar, coupled with the negotiating team’s reluctance to go to Pakistan or continue talks in Tehran, has deepened questions over who is coordinating the process inside the Islamic Republic, according to information received by Iran International.  Trump also pointed out that Iran's leadership is now divided, and it’s also affecting negotiations.

In the early Asian session, Thursday, May 28, gold and stocks stumbled, while oil surged after the IRGC said it struck a US air base in response to an attack near Bandar Abbas. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted a US air base in response to what it described as a “hostile attack” by the US military on a site near Bandar Abbas airport earlier, according to a statement by its public relations office published by IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency. The IRGC said the strike at 4:50 a.m. served as a “serious warning,” adding that any further “aggression” would be met with a stronger response.

Iran also fired missiles towards Kuwait.

The US CENTCOM calls Iran's missile launch at Kuwait an "egregious’ ceasefire breach.

· Iran fired a ballistic missile toward Kuwait in an “egregious ceasefire violation.”

·       Kuwaiti forces intercepted the missile, which they said was launched at 10:17 p.m. ET on May 27.

·       The missile launch came hours after Iranian forces launched five one-way attack drones that posed a threat in and near the Strait of Hormuz.

· US forces intercepted all five drones and prevented a sixth launch from an Iranian ground control site in Bandar Abbas.

· US forces and regional partners remained vigilant while defending US forces and interests from what it called Iranian aggression.

In the early US session, May 28, gold and stocks recovered, while oil plunged after a report citing U.S. Officials that a 60-day US-Iran Memorandum Agreed, Pending Trump's approval. Two U.S. officials told Axios negotiators have agreed on a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) to extend a ceasefire and open talks on Iran’s nuclear program, but the pact requires Trump’s final approval. The MoU would declare shipping through the Strait of Hormuz "unrestricted"—no transit fees or harassment—and require Iran to clear all sea mines from the strait within 30 days. Officials described signing the MoU as the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the war began, while noting a final deal to meet Trump’s nuclear demands would need further intensive negotiations. 

Now the question is, will Trump agree, and whether Iran will agree too, for such an ‘unrestricted’ Strait of Hormuz without any toll?

Bottom line

Despite the latest fiasco and Trump’s sudden change of stance, the Iran war may be over, but the Strait of Hormuz double blockade may not be over, and it may take at least July-August to be fully operational normally, as Iran has to remove undersea mines throughout June-July. Thus, oil may not fall much till at least August-September or even November, and Trump may face heavy defeats in the forthcoming midterm election (November 26). Most probably, China, Iran, and even Russia want to see a weak Trump by the end of 2026.

Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500, Gold, and Oil

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically, Dow Future (CMP: 50950) now has to sustain over 50700 for a further rally to 51000-51700* in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 50500/50200-50000/49500, DJ-30 may fall to 48500/48000-47600/46600 and 46000/45700*-45200*/45000 and 43800/43000-42000/39000-36800 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (29900) now has to sustain over 30100 for a further rally to 30500-31000 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 30000/29500-29100/28500*-28100/27800, it may fall to 27400-27000 and 26600/26300-26000/25600; NQ-100 may again fall to 24600/24400-24000/23900 and further to 23600/23300-22800/22400 and 21900-21000 in the coming days.

Looking at the chart, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 7550) now has to sustain over 7700 for a further rally to 8000-8300 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 7550/7500-7300/7200 and 7100-6900, it may fall to 6835/6700 and further 6600-6500/6450 and 6350/6300-6250/6180 and 5860-4800 in the coming days.

Looking at the chart, technically Gold (XAUUSD) ─ CMP 4370 now has to sustain over 4340-4390 for any recovery towards 4475-4525 and 4550/4600-4680-4700*, and only sustaining above 4700-4720 may scale 4750/4800-4850/4900 and 4975*/5000-5515/5555-5575* in the coming days. On the flip side, sustaining below 4350, it may further fall to 4135/4100* and 4000-3950 in the coming days.

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Oil (CMP: 90) now has to sustain over 80/87for a further rally to  112/115 -121/125-130/155 and even 185-200 in the coming days (best to bubble case scenario-if Iran war escalates further into a major global war or the SOH blockade lingers further). On the flip side, if oil sustains below 112/110-105/98, it may again fall to 94/90-84/80* and 70/67-64/60 and 54/50 in the coming days.