Stocks, oil, and gold wobbled on Trump’s Iran deal ‘off & on’ parody
Overall comments & body language of Trump indicate his Iran war & ceasefire ‘fun’ may continue till at least the Nov. '26 US midterm election.
Ahead of the Oct '26 general election in Israel, PM Netanyahu and other hardliners may not allow Iran to have a favorable deal with the US, which may portray a ‘stronger Iran.'
Trump may now be seeking to ‘take over’ the SOH from Iran’s control, something that Iran may not agree to at all.
In mid-June 2026, the US and Iran have taken a notable step toward de-escalation with the signing of a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (Islamabad MOU) that extends an earlier April ceasefire formally by another 60 days. This interim accord aims to reopen ‘fully’ the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) to commercial shipping, provide temporary sanctions relief to Iran, and establish a framework for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and broader regional issues.
The fragile ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran seems to be crumbling after Iran’s IRGC reportedly fired a Kuwaiti-flagged merchant ship in the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) on July 6. This led to ‘direct & intense’ airstrikes by US CENTCOM on southern Iran and the re-imposition of US oil sanctions on Iran, leading to a surge in oil prices. The apparent breakdown in the already fragile ceasefire occurred just a day after the huge multi-day funeral procession for Iran's late Supreme Leader Khamenei, who was assassinated on February 28, the very 1st day of the current Iran war led by US & Israeli joint airstrikes. The assassination of Khamenei led to intense pressure on Iran’s present political leadership by hardliners criticizing Iran’s MOU with the US. Iran’s hardliners are also vowing Trump's assassination.
All these are leading to an escalation of Iran-war tensions amid a war of words between the US and Iran. Despite the active but fragile truce, it seems Iranian forces are actively forcing commercial vessels into illegal traffic lanes by threatening to attack any ships utilizing Omani transit paths.
Tanker Attacks and Ceasefire Collapse Chronology of Events
Iran’s IRGC allegedly attacked three commercial vessels transiting the SOH on July 7, including a gas tanker carrying Qatari exports and a Saudi-flagged oil tanker. Concurrently, the Israeli military (IDF) carried out targeted bombings against at least 10 Hezbollah infrastructure sites in southern Lebanon, declaring a "rapid attack" protocol to prevent any exploitation of the truce by Iranian-backed proxies.
Direct US bombing campaigns and re-imposition of sanctions on Iranian oil exports from July 18
The US Treasury officially revoked a key oil sanctions waiver that had previously permitted Iran to sell crude oil on international markets. The US ordered all global transactions under this license to be completely wound down by July 17. Breaking the promised one-week funeral pause, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched a wave of "powerful strikes" targeting Iranian weapon launch sites, air defenses, and coastal surveillance networks. Heavy explosions were reported across the southern Iranian port cities of Sirik, Qeshm Island, Kharg Island, and Bandar Abbas. Subsequently, Iran responded by launching retaliatory missile and drone operations against dozens of US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, leading to emergency missile alerts & siren panics.
Iran vows decisive retaliation against US aggression and terrorism. The IRGC said the US carried out the attack, ignoring its commitments, while Iran was mourning the martyred leader. The IRGC also warned that it will deliver a decisive response to the American aggression. The IRGC statement stressed that Iran will not allow the US to interfere in the affairs of the Strait of Hormuz or its management. It also reaffirmed that the only safe passage for commercial vessels and oil tankers through the strait is the route designated by Iran.
Trump entered the NATO early European session on July 8, 2026:
Trump dramatically shifts his rhetoric (within a few hours) late Wednesday night, stating he "doesn't think" the war with Iran will start again, drastically lowering his tone just hours after declaring the Islamabad MOU is now invalid—calling Iranian leaders "scum" and threatening massive immediate strikes on Iran's civilian infrastructure.
In an evening news conference closing out the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump walked back earlier statements where he claimed he would "hit Iran very hard tonight." He noted that while any conflict would be "over very quickly," he believes a full-scale war will be avoided. Earlier in the day, Trump formally declared the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to be "over," dismissing negotiations with Iranian leadership as a "waste of time." Iranian officials furiously condemned Trump's vocabulary as "disgusting" and promised to respond to his remarks with military action rather than words.
Trump seeks Iran's Kharg Island control; financial markets wobbled.
Financial markets were rattled following reports that Trump openly speculated about the US taking physical control of Iran's Kharg Island—a vital hub that handles the vast majority of Tehran's oil exports. The US and Iran have entered a full-scale military escalation over the last 12 to 18 hours, trading intense missile bombardments that have brought commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill.
On July 8, the US CENTCOM launched a massive, coordinated bombing wave striking 90 military targets inside Iran. This triggered immediate, sweeping retaliatory missile and drone attacks from the IRGC, reportedly targeting almost 80 American military bases in neighboring Gulf nations. Following President Trump's warning of "retribution," US warplanes executed an expanded second night of intense strikes across Iran. According to CENTCOM, the operation targeted air defense assets, coastal surveillance networks, logistics infrastructure, and drone storage hubs across Iran, including the southeastern Iranian city of Iranshahr airport/airbase. Heavy explosions paralyzed coastal infrastructure, leaving at least one person dead and knocking out the power grid in the port city of Chabahar.
Iran Strikes US Bases in Bahrain and Kuwait: In rapid retaliation, the IRGC fired a barrage of missiles and drones directly at critical US military installations across the Persian Gulf. Direct hits were claimed against US facilities at Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem in Kuwait, as well as the Naval Support Activity in Juffair and Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain.
Gulf Airspace and Security Alerts: Air raid sirens repeatedly blared throughout Manama, Bahrain, forcing residents to seek immediate shelter. Kuwait's military active-defense networks intercepted multiple hostile projectiles, prompting authorities to completely shut down Kuwait's national airspace. Qatar also raised its security threat level to "high" as emergency sirens triggered briefly in Doha.
Hormuz Shipping Paralyzed
Reversing the June 17 peace-blueprint agreement, Iran's chief negotiator, Ghalibaf, formally declared that the critical maritime shipping corridor will now open only under "Iranian arrangements." He warned the West: "If you strike, you will be struck." Energy analysts tracking maritime data confirmed that commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially come to a complete standstill. Multiple oil and gas vessels have actively turned around to avoid the combat zone. The dangerous military exchanges unfolded directly alongside the final stages of the state funeral for assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is being buried in his hometown of Mashhad today under maximum security alerts.
International Pleads for Calm
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) released a statement expressing deep concern over the uninterrupted flow of global energy, urgently appealing to both Washington and Tehran to return to dialogue. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte defended the initial US response, calling the strikes on Iranian launch sites "necessary." Similarly, the principal mediator, Pakistan, also called for calm and a return to the negotiation table.
Iran's Press TV, citing informed sources
Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of any fresh attacks on Iran.
Iran will strike enemy targets at a ratio of at least two to one.
Eight Iranian army members were killed in the US attacks on the southern parts of Iran.
Will take revenge for the blood of the martyrs of Iran.
Iran and Qatar discuss Strait of Hormuz incidents in a call.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran must speak to Trump in his own language, as he understands the language of force better---
Pakistan: No alternative to continued engagement, dialogue, and diplomacy to achieve the shared goal of peace in the region. We remain ready to continue playing our role in this regard. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry urges all sides to uphold their commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding.
Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The MOU between Iran and the US was not established based on trust but rather on the clear mechanism of commitment for commitment. The US is creating challenges in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran will protect its interests. The phone call stressed the need to continue communication and coordination to prevent escalation of tensions in the region.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi: We do not answer vulgarity with vulgarity, but with action—Post on X.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister: Recent actions by the US won't stay without response.
Iran's foreign ministry condemns U.S. attacks on southern coastal provinces and two bridges in eastern Iran: statement.
Iran's foreign ministry: Tehran won't let U.S. deal violations, intimidation, and dishonor impact national interests—statement
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that it will not allow the United States ruling party to violate the memorandum of understanding, signed on June 18, and bully the Iranian people and leadership. The ministry stressed that Tehran is determined to "defend Iran's national sovereignty and territorial integrity and punish the aggressors." It also slammed Washington for its attacks on two bridges on the railway route to the holy city of Mashhad, where slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is set to be buried today. Furthermore, the ministry criticized US President Trump's "vile rhetoric" after the US head of state labeled Iranian leaders as "scum," "liars," and "sick people."
Iran: ‘Evil and psychopathic’ US hits civilian railway bridges in ‘gross war crime’ (TOI/AFP)
Iran’s foreign ministry denounces US strikes against the country, which it says targeted civilian infrastructure, including railway bridges, as a “gross war crime.” The ministry, in a statement, says it “condemns in the strongest terms the aggressive attacks by the US terrorist army on several points in the southern coastal provinces and two bridges in the eastern provinces on the railway route to the holy city of Mashhad" and calls the US administration “evil and psychopathic.”
Qatar urges Iran to honor the memorandum (MOU) and pursue diplomacy.
Qatar's prime minister and foreign minister, Thani, told Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi on Thursday that all parties should implement the MOU and pursue dialogue and diplomacy. According to Qatar's foreign ministry, Al Thani condemned attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, saying they "undermine trust, threaten international navigation security, and harm efforts aimed at establishing regional security and stability."
Al-Thani also told Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi in a phone call that Iran and the US should commit to diplomacy. Al-Thani added that Washington and Tehran should implement the signed memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war. Iran launched drones towards a site in Qatar earlier today, and a Qatari tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week, leading to the present military escalation. The two ministers discussed the latest military escalation between the United States and Iran over the past two days.
US media—citing informed sources
US Military ready to restart blockade of Iran if ordered to—FOX
The US is still deciding what the next round of strikes on Iran looks like—CNN.
Vance on Iran: If they shoot our ships, the US will respond.
US Military: Strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Highlights of Trump’s random comments
Had some great meetings—we just concluded a very successful NATO summit.
We attacked very powerfully last night against Iran.
Iran shot rockets at ships; that's why the US hit back.
Iran is a dirty player; they are 'scum.
Spain is a lost cause; don't want to do trade.
Cut off all trade with Spain and all visits (informal instructions to his team, Rubio).
Greenland is a big problem for us—we want Greenland.
Italy and the UK were terrible in not letting us use bases against Iran.
Spain showed great generosity today--
On the Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU): I think it's finished—I don’t want to engage with them; they’re “sick people."
We will probably hit them again tonight.
It's not about regime change; it's about nuclear weapons.
Iran has been wiped out—Iran violates the agreement every day.
We may just do it without a deal WITH Iran.
I don't know if we'll have an Iran deal.
Negotiators can continue with Iran; we will see what happens---
If we make an Iran deal, it may not stick.
We knocked out 28 Iranian boats last night—not a thing Iran can do about it.
We're not attacking Iran at the highest levels, such as bridges—if we have to, we will take out higher-level targets; if we have to, we will take out electricity and water plants, but we don't want to.
We may take over Kharg Island—
I would hate to strike desalination plants, but may have to—
Witkoff could talk with Iran, but I'm just not seeing it---
It may be a big attack---
We may put down the blockade on Iran—
The blockade would only apply to Iran—
Oil is coming down, very big—Oil prices may lift a little bit—Anytime we hit Iran, oil goes up. It's alright---
I think Israel will withdraw from southern Lebanon—spoke to Netanyahu about troops in southern Lebanon.
We will see whether we keep the oil down---$2 up/down not a big issue—
We have to produce defensive equipment faster—we can quadruple the output of munitions.
Lockheed is going to establish a sustainment facility in Europe.
Iran shoots ships at night; I don't like that—not sure I want to make a deal with Iranian leaders. Let's finish the job.
We have an oil glut right now. This will end very quickly, and oil will drop.
I don't think the Iran war will start again.
We will make things safer for oil. Oil will be very free, very easy, very fast—
Strikes on Iran as a response to yesterday’s bombing of vessels by Iran—if it occurs again, consequences will be far worse---
Finally, on July 9, aboard Air Force One returning to the US, President Trump told reporters Iran had just called and was "very eager" to reach an agreement, though he said he was unsure whether it "deserved" one. He said the US has "already won militarily" and Iran "has nothing left," and when asked why Iran would attack merchant ships if it seeks a deal, he said they are "a bit crazy, out of control" but still eager for a deal.
Incidentally, Trump switched planes at US Air Force Base, RAF Mildenhall, in Suffolk, England, on his way back to Washington from the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, on July 8, 2026. After US President Donald Trump unexpectedly left Turkey last night aboard an older Air Force plane rather than the newly renovated Qatari-donated jet that brought him there, The New York Times (NYT) reports that this was done at the recommendation of the US Secret Service as a security precaution. Trump later boarded the new plane in Britain for the flight to Washington.
Trump, asked in Ankara if a threat of assassination prompted his decision to change planes for his departure from Turkey, does not answer directly but acknowledges the potential threat: “I’m number one on the kill list for Iran—I don’t know. I can’t tell you that, but I don’t really care.”
Conclusions
Although a US-Iran ceasefire may now be looking fragile, considering Trump’s fascination with Wall Street and US/global economic sensitivity over potentially higher crude oil prices, Trump can’t afford an all-out or even lingering partial Iran war for long. Trump may soon post a Truth that after ‘requests’ from various GCC countries and Pakistan, he is ‘allowing’ negotiations with Iran.
But the question is whether there will be a permanent deal between Iran and the US and also Israel amid respective domestic political compulsions of each stakeholder. Iran’s ‘softer negotiators’ are under heavy pressure from hardliners, while Israeli PM Netanyahu doesn’t want to look ‘weak’ by letting Iran have a favorable deal with the US ahead of the October '26 general election. The same is also almost true for Trump ahead of the Nov '26 midterm election.
In fact, Trump’s Iran war ‘fun/excursion/adventure’ doesn’t result in any new concessions from Iran. There are no proven nukes by Iran. Above all, the SOH was free for all before the Iran War; now it’s closed or changeable by Iran & Oman. Thus, Trump may now be seeking to ‘take over’ the SOH from Iran’s control, something that Iran may not allow at all.
Bottom line
Although there is little probability of another all-out Iran war ahead of Israeli & US elections, we may see intermittent skirmishes due to respective domestic political compulsions. Going forward, the US-Iran ceasefire may continue to be fragile, and the overall theme of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade may also continue. Ahead of the Oct '26 Israeli general election, Israeli PM Netanyahu (BB) may escalate Iranian tensions for domestic political compulsion.
Similarly, depending upon the actual trajectory of Iran's nuclear and SOH deal negotiations, if Trump feels the Iran deal may not help him politically (Nov '26 midterm election), Trump may also launch a surgical or even an all-out strike on Iran by September '26 (along with Israel). The Republican Party under Trump’s presidency is set to suffer a miserable loss in the Nov '26 midterm. In that scenario, moderate & also realistic Vance (the present VP) may be the next presidential candidate (instead of Trump’s any one from Trump’s family or the present FS Rubio) for Republicans in the 2028 US presidential election. But Republicans may also try to replace Trump with Vance in 2027 after a potential miserable loss under Trump in the Nov '26 midterm election.
Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500, Gold, Oil, and USDJPY
Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 53450) now has to sustain over 54000 for a further rally to 54500*/55000-55500/56000 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 53800-53500 may cause it to fall to 53200/52900-52500/51900 and 51300/51000-50500/50200 and 50000/49750*-49500/49100-47900-45250/45000 in the coming days.
Similarly, NQ-100 Future (30700) now has to sustain over 31000 for a further rally to 31200/31300-31500*/32000 and even 32400/32500 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 30800/30700-30600/30300, it may fall to 30000/29500-29100/28300*-28100/27800; it may fall to 27400-27000 and 26600/26300-26000/25600 in the coming days.
Looking at the chart, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 7557) now has to sustain over 7600/7650-7680/7700 for a further rally to 8000-8300 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 7595-7575, SPX-500 7550/7500-7300/7200 and 7100-6900, it may fall to 6835/6700 and further 6600-6500/6450 and 6350/6300-6250/6180 and 5860-4800 in the coming days.
Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically gold ($4157) now has to sustain over 4130 for a recovery to 4180/4230-4275*/4325 and further rally to 4400/4450-4500/4585 and 4725-4825; otherwise, sustaining below 4120, gold may again fall to 4090/4050-4050/4000*/3970 and further 3885/3715-3675/3600 and 3540/3340-3080/2770 in the coming days.
Looking ahead, whatever the narrative may be, technically oil ($69.50) now has to sustain over 76.00/78.00* for a recovery to 83.00/85.00 and 90.00/91.00-92.00/93.00 and 94.00/97.00-107.00/118.00 in the coming days. On the flip side, sustaining below 76.00, oil may further fall to 74.75/73.50-71.00/70.50 and 67.00/64.00-60.00/54.00 and even 50.00-45.00 in the coming days.
Similarly, USDJPY (162.00) now has to sustain over 163.50 for a further rally to 164.00-165.00; otherwise, sustaining below 163.00-162.50, it may again fall to 161.50/161.00-160.50/160.00 and 159.50/159.00-158.00/155.00 in the coming days.
