Transitory higher inflation but a fragile US job market—will the Fed hike?
Overall, the US labor market may now be under various structural and cyclical issues, both positive & negative. Although the US headline unemployment (U3) rate remains around 4.3% on average, U6 (true unemployment) remains around 7.9%. The number of employed persons to working-age population ratio declined sharply to near 2008-10 GFC recession levels under Trump 2.0. On August 7, 2026, apart from ongoing developments in Trump’s ‘Iran circus,' the market's focus was also on the US NFP/BLS job report for July '26 and the overall employment situation in the world’s biggest economy. Overall, at a glance, under Trump’s chaotic policies, from tariffs to the Iran war, the US economy may now be facing a stagflation-like scenario—higher inflation, lower economic growth, and a fragile employment situation. The US job market may now be under meaningful stress due to Trump’s uncertain, bellicose policies on tariffs, war with Iran, and immigration & deportation despite the perce...