Oil may zoom further ahead of US midterms & Israeli elections
Iran may turn offensive from a defensive strategy in this war of attrition rather than paving a face-saving exit for Trump and Netanyahu.
Trump’s ‘Operation Epic Fury’ on Iran is now turned into ‘Operation Epic Tragedy’ amid logistical & munitions constraints.
Trump’s new strategy of ‘Operation Economic Fury’ on Iran and secondary sanction threat on Chinese refiners may backfire, and oil may zoom further.
The US-Iran war has entered a highly dangerous phase of unprecedented economic attrition and territorial annexations following the official expiration of the 60-day June Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) deadline on August 17, 2026. Trump also officially confirmed on August 18 that the US would not extend the MOU and that the SOH (Strait of Hormuz) is ‘totally controlled’ by the US CENTCOM. But Iran was not ready to oblige and succumb to Trump’s bullying tactics. Following the remote signing of the June 17 Islamabad MoU, a brief, fragile truce was established for a few weeks.
Why the June Islamabad MOU Lapsed
On July 11, Iran’s IRGC attacked a Thai-flagged bulk carrier ‘by mistake’ with two projectiles for allegedly ignoring maritime warnings.
However, on July 17, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that the IRGC Navy aggressively targeted and blocked a Thai-flagged vessel attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC claimed the ship violated navigation guidelines by attempting to pass through the waterway without mandatory Iranian authorization and caused a blast with an underwater mine.
Failed Commitments: Operative tracking indicates that the deal collapsed early in practice. The U.S. oil sanctions waiver lasted only 20 days, the temporary lifting of the naval blockade lasted just 27 days, and the core goal of permanently reopening the Strait of Hormuz was never achieved.
The US Red Line: The Trump administration viewed the targeting of the commercial vessel as an explicit, bad-faith breach of the peace framework. The US Secretary of State Rubio publicly rejected Tehran's actions, stating firmly that "the MoU does not give them the right to launch drones and missiles against commercial shipping vessels."
The Rapid Retaliation Loop: Following the mid-July ship incident, President Trump accused Iran of repeatedly violating the ceasefire. The U.S. military immediately responded by executing a massive retaliatory wave of strikes against Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, command hubs, and minelayer capabilities across southern coastal cities.
In response, Iran also launched a series of massive, highly destructive drone and missile salvos targeting multiple critical U.S. and allied military bases across the GCC and Jordan’s US air base—causing heavy casualties to U.S. military assets and some Marine lives. By leveraging advanced saturation tactics, the IRGC indeed managed to penetrate regional US air defense systems, causing the most significant American military casualties of the conflict.
Trump’s epic fury may now be turning into epic tragedy ahead of the Nov '26 midterm election as the US casualties grow.
The Pentagon Casualty Count: The Department of Defense formally confirmed that 13 U.S. service members were killed and well over 100 were wounded across the theater during these heavy base bombardments.
Trump's Vow for Retribution: The high U.S. troop fatality count triggered an explosive response from President Trump on Truth Social, who warned: "Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times over!"
But despite constant warmongering rhetoric, Trump blinked and is now trying for ‘Operation Economic Fury’ from earlier ‘Operation Epic Fury’ amid reported shortages of critical munitions and supply chain breakdown by Iran for its various GCC and Navy carriers. Iran has systematically destroyed Bahrain's logistics hub for the US Navy, which compromised the USS Abraham Lincoln, leaving it in a shabby state for US Marines, as it was in the deep sea for over 250 continuous days without a port halt.
Although the US has now replaced it with the USS George Washington, there are practical difficulties for a full-fledged normal supply chain from the US’ permanent remote island at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, almost 3500 km away from the Gulf of Oman, requiring a 10-day round trip.
Despite Trump’s tall claims that the SOH is now a US territory and that it fully controls the SOH, the fact on the ground is that the US CENTCOM is not able to enter the SOH due to various operational reasons, including a potential attack by the IRGC and sophisticated undersea mines at the SOH. The US CENTCOM is now operating from the outer waters of the Gulf of Oman.
Inability to Clear: The US CENTCOM cannot safely deploy its traditional mine-countermeasure (MCM) vessels into the SOH because clearing operations require ships to move slowly and predictably, making them defenseless/easy targets for the IRGC.
The IRGC "Anti-Access/Area-Denial" (A2/AD) Trap through the Granite-Fortified Coastal Batteries: The IRGC maintains highly mobile, radar-guided anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) systems hidden within the rugged, mountainous topography of Iran's southern coast and islands like Qeshm and Kish.
No Loiter Protection: As highlighted by the "debasification" crisis, the destruction of major U.S. airbases across Jordan, Qatar, and Bahrain has severely degraded U.S. air refueling and combat air patrols. Without sustained air coverage to suppress these Iranian coastal defenses, capital warships like the newly arrived USS George Washington cannot enter the narrow, 33-kilometer-wide SOH without facing catastrophic ship-survival risks.
Status of Iran-Oman talks/MOU/agreement over the SOH
The Iran-Oman maritime negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) have plunged into a severe crisis following the official expiration of the Islamabad MOU and direct military threats issued by Trump. While both coastal nations reached a tentative, technical agreement earlier this month to regulate shipping, Iran has attached sweeping political conditions that have brought implementation to a complete standstill.
The Technical Blueprint of the Iran-Oman SOH Deal
Before the diplomatic fallout, the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that the technical frameworks and geographical coordinates for a temporary 60-day transit route had been finalized:
The Transit Map: Under the finalized blueprint, entering commercial vessels would use a northern corridor entirely within Iranian territorial waters. Exiting vessels would utilize a southern corridor running through Omani territorial waters.
The Route Modification: Originally, Oman agreed to host 60% of the return traffic. However, the Iranian delegation later insisted that the return lane also shift entirely into Iranian waters, which Muscat accepted before the U.S. intervened.
The Operational Split: The framework stipulated a toll-free, charge-free initial 60-day period. It also mandated that Iran and Oman co-manage a massive joint demining operation to clear the Strait's median lanes within 30 days.
Iran’s Rigid Conditions for Implementation
Despite reaching a technical consensus with Muscat, Iranian Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Ghalibaf declared that Iran will not implement the route or reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless Washington completely agrees to a specific set of demands:
Total Blockade Removal: The U.S. Navy must entirely lift its hard naval blockade on all Iranian ports and coastal waters.
Sanctions Liquidation: The Trump administration must systematically dismantle all primary and secondary energy/oil sanctions.
Asset Unfreezing: Washington must immediately release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian foreign exchange assets globally.
Cessation of Hostilities: The U.S. and Israel must permanently terminate all kinetic military operations, threats, and targeted air campaigns across all regional fronts.
The U.S. Opposition and the Omani Dilemma
Trump’s Red Line: The US vehemently opposes the deal, viewing it as a geopolitical concession that hands Iran de facto permanent regulatory control over a global chokepoint. Trump publicly declared that allowing Iran to control or gatekeep traffic through the SOH is an absolute red line.
The Bombing Threat to Oman: To shatter the deal, President Trump issued an aggressive, public ultimatum warning that the U.S. will directly bomb Oman if the sultanate "gets in the way" of Washington's maximum-pressure strategy or helps accommodate Iranian shipping networks.
Oman Caught in the Crosshairs: The uncompromising nature of the U.S. stance has placed immense pressure on Oman, the primary neutral mediator. Trump administration officials confirmed they have warned Muscat that any attempt to bypass or accommodate shipping demands outside the U.S.-approved southern transit corridor will result in immediate secondary penalties.
Current Status:
Due to Trump's explicit threats of military action and Treasury Secretary Bessent's strict secondary economic penalties under "Operation Economic Fury," the implementation of the new shipping route has been completely disrupted. Bessent & Co. are now trying for a face-saving exit for Trump from his Iran war fund as ‘Operation Epic Fury’ has now turned into an ‘Operation Epic Tragedy’ amid various structural & cyclical issues, including disruption of supply lines and an acute shortage of critical munitions. Trump’s approval rating is plummeting ahead of the Nov '26 midterm election, although he is now trying his best narratives to regain some political ground.
Trump's "Economic D-Day" Campaign & Threat to Oman
The "Crushing" Decree: On Wednesday, August 19, President Trump declared an absolute shift from kinetic bombing to a massive financial chokehold, announcing "the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country" on Truth Social. He explicitly warned that any nation providing a financial, corporate, or transport lifeline to Iran would face devastating secondary consequences.
Sanctions Over Military Action: The U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent clarified that these draconian measures aim to completely "collapse" the Iranian government and are intentionally designed to decrease the necessity of launching further large-scale U.S. military operations.
The Ultimatum to Oman: Trump has aggressively turned up the heat on Oman, which has been serving as the primary neutral intermediary. US officials confirmed that Trump explicitly threatened to launch direct military strikes against Oman if the sultanate "gets in the way" of Washington’s maritime objectives or acts to accommodate Iranian shipping demands.
The Strait of Hormuz Annexation:
"New US Territory": In a shocking geopolitical move on Tuesday, August 18, Trump posted a map on social media explicitly labeling the critical Strait of Hormuz chokepoint as a "New US Territory." Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister fiercely pushed back, calling the territorial claim an AI "delusion" that would be swiftly corrected by force.
The Sovereign Escort Corridor: The US Navy has successfully carved out an active, heavily armed southern transit corridor along the Omani side of the Strait. Backed by US warships, international oil tankers are actively bypassing the northern lanes, weakening Iran’s absolute grip on global energy flows.
Tehran's Total Blockade Demand: Rejecting the US corridor, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf announced that the Strait of Hormuz will remain entirely shut to global trade until the US completely lifts its naval blockade, removes all oil sanctions, and unfreezes Tehran's global assets.
Iran Shifts to a "Fully Offensive" Posture
Iranian officials have admitted that a diplomatic resolution regarding the Strait is currently "the most distant option" as Tehran transitions to a fully offensive military posture:
Expiration of the Truce: Following the definitive expiration of the 60-day negotiation window laid out in June, a senior Iranian official said that the regime has officially shifted to a "fully offensive" military posture.
Proxy Target Lists Distributed: According to the WSJ, the IRGC spent the truce period rapidly accelerating drone and missile production. The IRGC has now distributed specific combat target lists to its regional proxies—including the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq—explicitly detailing plans to strike Saudi Arabian ports and critical energy facilities.
The "Destructive Weapons" Warning: The IRGC formally stated that it will deploy never-before-seen "destructive weapons" if the US or Israel attempts another sweeping air campaign inside Iranian borders.
Iraqi Militia Crackdown Friction: During a three-day diplomatic visit to Baghdad, Ghalibaf hailed a "new regional order" devoid of Western interference. This comes amid intense pressure from Washington on US-backed Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who has ordered all independent, Iran-aligned militias to immediately surrender their weapons to direct Iraqi state authority.
Peripheral Escalations & Red Sea Threat
The Bab al-Mandeb Chokepoint Plot: The internationally recognized government of Yemen issued an urgent warning revealing that Iran-aligned Houthi rebels are actively plotting a massive land advance to seize total territorial control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This expansion would allow Iran’s axis to completely squeeze both major maritime arteries simultaneously.
Lebanon Invasion Fallout: Tensions remain boiling along the Mediterranean front. Canada formally issued a statement condemning Israel’s "unlawful invasion" of Lebanon while pledging emergency humanitarian aid to address the 360,000 civilians displaced by the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah fighting.
US Carrier Rotation: Amid the mounting theater transitions, the Pentagon confirmed that the USS Abraham Lincoln is finally heading home after an extended deployment, swapped out by the newly arrived USS George Washington to anchor regional defense.
The proposed economic sanctions framework—codenamed "Operation Economic Fury"—marks a fundamental shift in the U.S. war strategy from kinetic bombing to a total financial blockade designed to collapse the Iranian government from within. The US Treasury Secretary, Bessent, clarified that this draconian campaign is engineered to systematically starve Tehran of resource revenue, intentionally reducing the immediate need for further large-scale, high-casualty U.S. air operations.
Trump's "Economic D-Day" Ultimatum
President Trump announced the escalation via Truth Social, framing it as an absolute financial chokehold on Iran and its global partners. The Decree: Trump labeled the incoming packages as "the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country."
The Warning to Allies: Trump explicitly warned that any nation—including long-standing neutral intermediaries—attempting to provide a financial, corporate, or transport lifeline to Iran will face severe U.S. trade retaliation.
The "Territory" Proclamation: To solidify this economic lock, Trump posted a map designating the critical Strait of Hormuz chokepoint as a "New U.S. Territory," signaling that the U.S. intends to permanently police, control, and block Iranian energy exports moving through the waterway.
JD Vance's Defense of the Strategy
The US Vice President (VP) Vance heavily backed the administration's aggressive policy shift during a series of media appearances, defending both the economic squeeze and the territorial claim over the Strait.
National Security Priority: Vance stated that securing the global energy supply chain and completely dismantling the Iranian regime's funding mechanisms is a non-negotiable priority for the administration.
Countering the Midterm Backlash: Addressing concerns from congressional isolationists and voters worried about the economic fallout ahead of the November midterms, Vance argued that a decisive financial victory would prevent an endless, multi-trillion-dollar ground war in the Middle East.
Scott Bessent’s Sanctions Framework
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined the specific operational pillars of the upcoming sanctions, aiming to completely sever Iran's connection to global trade networks.
Absolute Secondary Sanctions: The U.S. will impose immediate, sweeping secondary penalties on any foreign bank, corporation, or maritime shipping company found facilitating Iranian transaction settlements or oil transport.
Targeting the "Shadow Fleet": The framework establishes a strict blacklisting protocol for international "ghost tankers" flying flags of convenience to smuggle Iranian crude, locking those vessels out of Western insurance markets and ports.
Tech and AI Supply Choke: Expanding beyond energy, the Treasury will sanction third-party supply lines routing advanced microchips, industrial machinery, and dual-use technologies into Iran via regional intermediaries.
Iran’s counterstrategy to destabilize President Trump ahead of November 2026: The U.S. midterm elections are built on a doctrine of systematic war of attrition. Rather than engaging in direct military confrontation with the ‘mighty’ US, Iran is now executing a calculated multi-front plan to exploit Trump’s domestic political vulnerabilities.
Economic Warfare & Energy Supply Choking
Surging Global Fuel Prices: Intelligence reports indicate that a core pillar of Iran's plan involves orchestrating asymmetric strikes on Gulf oil terminals and energy infrastructure through its regional proxy networks. By engineering artificial supply crunches, Iran aims to spike global fuel and domestic U.S. gasoline prices.
Weaponizing the Waterways: Iran continues to reject U.S.-led transit rules in the SOH. By selectively freezing commercial shipping and forcing multi-week maritime delays, they are directly feeding into U.S. consumer inflation, providing high-yield political ammunition for Democrats running to retake the House of Representatives.
The "War of Attrition" Timeline Strategy
Outlasting the Administration: Senior advisers within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) explicitly stated that their strategic objective is to deliberately drag out the military standoff until Trump's current term faces political fatigue.
Exploiting the Midterm Trap: Top Iranian commanders believe that Trump’s aggressive policies leave him caught in a dilemma: launching a new, costly wave of massive airstrikes will alienate war-weary independent voters, while backing down will look like weakness. Tehran is intentionally stalling de-escalation talks to keep Trump pinned in this high-risk political corner.
Asymmetric Defiance Against "Economic D-Day"
Absorbing Financial Pain: In response to Treasury Secretary Bessent's strict secondary sanctions framework, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly dismissed the pressure.
Leveraging Global Isolation: Iran is betting that its underground trading channels, paired with economic alignment from major South-Eastern buyers (China), will allow the regime to outlast the immediate shock of the U.S. blockade. By refusing to collapse under maximum economic pressure, Tehran intends to prove Trump’s "Economic D-Day" strategy ineffective before American voters head to the polls.
Coordinating Multi-Directional Proxy Surprises
The Target List Distribution: Rather than deploying the formal Iranian army, Tehran has distributed highly coordinated combat target lists to its regional proxies—including Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq.
Denying Trump a Political Victory: By keeping American bases in Iraq and Jordan under constant threat of low-cost drone harassment, Iran ensures that Trump cannot claim a decisive, clean "foreign policy victory" to bolster Republican campaigns ahead of the November midterms, in which Trump is set to lose his trifecta and become a lame-duck president.
Iran may also target Israel ahead of the Oct. 26 Israeli general election, in which PM Netanyahu is set to lose badly. Based on the latest intelligence assessments and the expiration of the 60-day truce, Iran has also officially shifted to a "fully offensive" military posture and is actively preparing a multi-front campaign to destabilize Israeli PM Netanyahu (BB) ahead of the October 2026 Israeli Knesset elections. The IRGC views the upcoming elections as a critical window to break Israel's political resolve and rupture the U.S.-Arab security architecture and also the decades-old convention of the petrodollar system, the primary backbone of USD hegemony.
The Strategy: Overwhelming Israel's War Cabinet: Breaking the "Pilot Zone" Truce: Israeli intelligence assessments warn that Iran plans to shatter the fragile ceasefire status quo by activating its remaining proxy networks in Lebanon and Syria. This will involve launching synchronized, low-cost precision drones and prolonged missile barrages to overwhelm Israel’s multi-layered air defense systems.
Targeting the Israeli Electorate: By forcing Israeli citizens into prolonged bomb shelter stays and disrupting daily economic life right before voting day, Tehran hopes to trigger a severe domestic political backlash against Netanyahu's constant warmongering stance.
The Retaliation Trap: The IRGC is intentionally trying to goad Netanyahu into a heavy-handed response that would complicate his ongoing strategic and military alignment with Washington.
The Infrastructure Plan: Striking GCC Oil Assets
Proxy Target Lists Distributed: According to verified regional intelligence reports, the IRGC has already distributed specific combat target lists to its regional axis, explicitly detailing plans to launch asymmetric strikes against Saudi Arabian and UAE ports, refinery complexes, and critical energy facilities.
Crippling the U.S. Transit Corridor: Iran seeks to directly disrupt the newly carved-out U.S. Naval escort corridor running along the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz (SOH).
The Twin-Chokepoint Squeeze: Concurrently, Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen are planning a massive land advance toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. By threatening both the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf pipelines simultaneously, Iran aims to ensure that if its own oil exports are blocked by Treasury Secretary Bessent's sanctions, no other regional power can safely export crude either.
Geopolitical Backlash and the GCC Dilemma
The "Zero Infrastructure" Warning: Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf issued an explicit warning to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): "If our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe.
Rupturing Regional Pacts: Tehran believes that striking GCC oil nodes will expose the limits of American naval protection. They hope this will panic Gulf States into withdrawing their quiet support for the U.S. naval blockade and the landmark U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear pact.
The Dual Election Disruption: By spiking global oil prices to multi-week highs, Iran’s offensive serves a dual purpose. It aims to weaken Netanyahu’s security credentials in October while simultaneously driving up domestic gas prices in the United States to destabilize President Trump ahead of the November U.S. midterm elections.
China has flatly rejected and openly defied President Donald Trump's "Economic D-Day" campaign against Iran, declaring that Washington's strategy of unilateral isolation is fundamentally doomed to fail. As Iran’s largest trading partner and the buyer of over 80% of its seaborne oil exports, Beijing is framing the new secondary sanctions framework as an unlawful act of American overreach.
Official Condemnation from Beijing
The Diplomatic Pushback: Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian issued a blunt statement confirming that "sanctions and pressure will not help resolve the issue." Beijing demanded that the United States immediately abandon its reliance on coercive economic warfare and return to a framework of structured political and diplomatic dialogue.
Long-Arm Jurisdiction Rejected: The Chinese Embassy in Washington released a sharp critique on X, asserting that China fiercely opposes "any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction" that lack explicit authorization from the UN Security Council.
The Anti-Coercion Warning: Pushing back against Trump's aggressive tariff threats, the embassy spokesperson added that "tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and coercion and pressure cannot solve problems," vowing that China will take "all necessary measures" to safeguard its corporate and national interests.
Defying Treasury Secretary Bessent's "Program"
"Get with the Program": The friction escalated after U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly went on CNBC to pressure the Chinese government, explicitly calling on Beijing "to get with the program" and join the historic coordinated isolation of Tehran.
Beijing's Refusal to Kowtow: Sanctions experts and regional analysts note that China has zero intention of letting the US dictate its bilateral trade relationships. Bowing to Trump's public ultimatums would establish a dangerous geopolitical precedent that President Xi Jinping's administration considers entirely unacceptable.
Testing the Shadow Fleet: Despite Bessent's warning that the U.S. will aggressively target oil smuggling, cash transfers, and front companies starting Monday, Beijing is heavily banking on its underground banking channels, sovereign financial swap lines, and unvetted "ghost fleet" tankers to completely absorb and bypass the incoming American shock.
High-Stakes White House Meeting Looming
The September 24 Summit: This severe economic standoff sets an incredibly tense backdrop for an upcoming global diplomatic event: Chinese President Xi Jinping is still officially scheduled to visit the White House on September 24.
The Ultimate Trade-Off: Analysts estimate that Trump's secondary sanctions risk severe economic blowback. If the Trump administration follows through on treating China as an active adversary under Bessent's "you are either with us or against us" rule, it could trigger a catastrophic, full-scale trade war between Washington and Beijing right before the November U.S. midterms.
Trump is now in a defensive mood on Iran amid an intense political campaign for his Republican nominees:
Iran wants a deal but is not ready for the ‘right deal.'
Iran wants an agreement with the United States but is not yet prepared to accept terms he considers necessary.
They would love to make a deal, but they are not ready to make the right deal, in my opinion.
We’re seeing what happens. They have no money. They have no navy. They have no air force. They’re not paying their soldiers. They’re not paying their police. They have 350% inflation.
We have total control of the entire region.
Conclusions
The war of attrition on Iran is taking complex geopolitical shapes ahead of the Oct’26 Israeli general election and the Nov’26 midterm election. Both Netanyahu and Trump are set to lose badly. Iran, China, and even Trump-savvy Putin/Russia, as well as the rest of the world, may now be eagerly waiting for a weaker Trump after the Nov '26 US midterm election, in which Trump may lose his Trifecta (House) and become a minority (lame-duck) President. Trump is now already worried that the US Congress, led by ‘lunatic Dumocrats,' may officially initiate impeachment proceedings on various corruption charges, conflicts of interest, and insider trading.
Trump may also be removed by various legal/legislative ways by Republicans (in conjunction with Democrats) ahead of the 2028 US Presidential election, as an increasing number of Republicans may now be feeling that Trump’s insane nonsense policies and incumbent wave may cause further debacle. Also expected, the next Republican presidential candidate, Vance, may not agree to run amid such anti-Trump sentiment all over the USA. Although Trump is now scrambling to bring down prices of daily essentials, including beef, it may be too little & too late despite Trump’s daily 'circus.'
Immediate effect on oil
Oil Prices Rise to 3-Week High: Sparked entirely by Trump's threats of aggressive secondary economic penalties and fears of the Houthi proxy target lists, global oil and natural gas futures surged to their highest levels in a month due to expected fuel trade disruptions.
Looking ahead, China may officially show its shadow oil fleets (imports) from Iran as the Trump admin is now talking about huge secondary sanctions; oil may zoom further.
During his recent China visit, Trump and Xi may agree jointly to keep oil prices down by not officially showing China’s shadow imports of Iranian oil.
Technical analysis/outlook: Oil (WTI)
Looking ahead, whatever may be the underlying narrative, technically now oil ($87) has to sustain over 88.50 for a further rally to 90.50/93.75/95.00/98.00 and 101.00/105.00/110.00/120.00 in the coming days/weeks; otherwise, sustaining below 88.00/87.50, oil may again fall to 83.50/80.50/78.50/76.50 and 74.00/72.00/70.00/67.00 in the coming days/weeks.
