Will Trump blink and make a last-minute Iran deal (just before the midterm election) as a face-saving exit from his mess? As the US approaches its midterm elections on November 3, 2026, financial markets in India are closely watching whether President Trump could lose Republican control of one or both chambers of Congress (House & Senate). Current polling aggregates show Democrats leading on the generic ballot by roughly 8–9.5 points, while Trump’s net approval rating sits deeply underwater, in the range of –23 to –29. Losing the "trifecta"—unified Republican control of the White House, Senate, and House—would turn Trump into a classic lame-duck president for the final two years of his 2 nd term (like the 1st). For India, the stakes are high. The bilateral relationship has already experienced friction over tariffs linked to Russian oil purchases, H-1B visa restrictions, and delayed progress on a comprehensive trade agreement. A constrained Trump administration would alte...