Oil and USD stumbled; stocks, UST & gold recovered on hopes of 2nd peace meeting (US-Iran)
● Trump/the US and Iran may agree on a 10-year nuclear
enrichment ban (for Iran) against the US demand for 20 years and Iran’s offer for 5 years.
●Israel may soon start ceasefire
negotiation talks with Lebanon/Hezbollah in the presence of US officials.
● Trump may be seeking an immediate
face-saving exit from his Iran war mess ahead of the November
'26 midterm US elections.
India’s benchmark stock index Nifty stumbled by
almost 0.86% on Monday, April 13, 2026, on fading hopes of an imminent
permanent ceasefire deal with Iran after failed negotiations over the weekend.
And warmongering Trump threatened a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
immediately (to be effective from Monday 12:00 ET). As a result, oil and USD
surged, while stocks, gold, and UST slid. As a reminder, Nifty surged almost
+5.89%, the largest weekly gain in the last several years, on hopes of an
imminent peace after the war paused on April 7 for 14 days in order to give
priority to negotiation rather than further escalation. In March, Nifty lost
almost 11.3% due to the Iran war and Middle East tensions, oil & gas,
fertilizers, and other food/commodity disruptions.
The much-awaited first direct high-level talks
between the US and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended without
agreement after more than 21 hours of marathon negotiations in
Islamabad on April 11-12, 2026. Mediated by Pakistan, the discussions aimed to
transform the fragile two-week ceasefire—announced on 7 April—into a lasting
deal amid the 40-day US-Israeli war on Iran that began on 28 February 2026.
Both sides blamed each other for the impasse. US
Vice President JD Vance, who led the American delegation, described the outcome
as “bad news for Iran much more than for the United States.” Iranian officials
accused Washington of making “excessive demands” and failing to build trust.
Despite the failure, Pakistan and some analysts noted that diplomacy had not
ended, with the ceasefire still technically in place but under severe strain.
The talks exposed deep divisions on core issues that have defined the conflict:
Iran’s nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and
the scope of the ceasefire regarding Lebanon.
Obstacles between Iran and the US for a
permanent peace deal
Iran’s Nuclear Program – The Central Dispute:
The most significant sticking point was Iran’s
nuclear activities. The US demanded a clear, enforceable commitment that Iran
would not develop nuclear weapons or acquire the capability to do so quickly.
Vance emphasized this as the “core goal” and part of America’s “final and best
offer.” Iran rejected what it called "maximalist demands," insisting
its program is purely civilian. Tehran expressed willingness to discuss limits
on enrichment only in exchange for comprehensive sanctions relief and
recognition of its “legitimate rights.” Iran has accelerated uranium enrichment
to 60% purity since the US withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA in 2018. The two sides
remained far apart, with the US viewing any quick “breakout” capability as
unacceptable.
Control and Tolls in the Strait of Hormuz
The strategic waterway, through which roughly
one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, emerged as another flashpoint. Iran
has exercised de facto control since the war began, disrupting shipping and
proposing transit fees in partnership with Oman to fund reconstruction. The US
insists on completely free and safe passage without any Iranian-imposed tolls,
viewing Tehran’s actions as economic extortion that has triggered a global
energy crisis. Discussions on the Strait were linked to broader demands for war
reparations and sanctions lifting, but little progress was reported.
Scope of the Ceasefire: The Lebanon Question
Iran pushed strongly for the ceasefire to
include an immediate end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon,
citing statements from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif that described a
comprehensive regional pause. Israeli strikes continued even after the US-Iran
truce began, adding to a death toll that has exceeded 2,000 in Lebanon since
early March. The US and Israel maintained that operations in Lebanon were a
“separate skirmish” and were never part of the bilateral agreement with Iran.
Vance described Iran’s expectations on this issue as a misunderstanding and
warned that allowing the Lebanon conflict to derail broader talks would be
unwise. Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that Israeli actions against Hezbollah
will continue.
Additional Issues
Other disputed areas included the lifting of US
sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and demands for war
reparations. Iran sought guarantees on these points in return for any nuclear
concessions, while the US appeared unwilling to offer major relief without
verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear and regional activities.
Trump’s Truth posts: April 12-13 (post-failed
Islamabad meeting)
❖ So, there you have it; the meeting went well,
and most points were agreed to, but the only point
that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United
States Navy, the finest in the world, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any ships trying to enter or
leave the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED
TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to
happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody
knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries,
especially the United States of America, will never be extorted.
I have also instructed our Navy to
seek and interdict every vessel in international waters
that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe
passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines that the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at
us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows better than
anyone how to END this situation, which has
already devastated its country. Their navy is gone; their Air Force
is gone; their anti-aircraft and radar are useless; Khamenei and most of
their "leaders" are dead, all
because of their nuclear ambition.
The blockade will begin
shortly. Other countries will be involved in this blockade. Iran will
not be allowed to profit from this illegal
act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more
importantly, they want nukes. Additionally, and
at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND
LOADED,” and our military will finish up the
little that is left of Iran! President DONALD J. TRUMP
❖ Iran promised to open the Strait of
Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation,
and pain to many people and countries throughout the world.
They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their navy and most of their “mine droppers" have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but
what ship owner would want to take the chance? There is great dishonor and
permanent harm to the reputation of Iran and
what’s left of their "leaders," but
we are beyond all of that.
As they promised, they had better begin the
process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every law in the book is being violated by them. I have been fully
debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared
Kushner on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very
competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz
Sharif of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and they continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in
what would have been a horrendous war with
India. I always appreciate hearing that; the
amount of humanity spoken of is
incomprehensible.
The meeting with Iran began early in
the morning and lasted throughout the night—close to 20 hours. I
could go into great detail and talk about much that has been gained, but there is only one
thing that matters—IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE
UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS! In many ways, the points that were agreed to are
better than us continuing our military operations to their conclusion, but all of those
points don’t matter compared to allowing nuclear power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult,
unpredictable people. My three Representatives, as all of this time went by,
became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s
Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but
that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most
important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many
years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.
.
❖ The United States will block ships entering or exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10:00 A.M. ET. Thank you for your attention
to this matter! President DJT
❖ 34 ships went through the
Strait of Hormuz yesterday, which is by far the highest number since this
foolish closure began. President DONALD J. TRUMP
❖ Iran’s navy is lying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated—158
ships. What we have not hit are their small number of
what they call "fast attack ships,” because we did not consider them much of a
threat. Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE,
they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use
against the drug dealers on boats at sea. It
is quick and brutal. P.S. 98.2% of drugs
coming into the U.S. by ocean or sea have STOPPED! Thank you for your attention to this matter.
President DJT
Trump announced a naval blockade at the Strait
of Hormuz (SOH)
Trump’s Rhetoric (Truth Social and Press
Comments):
●
Dramatic statements about blockading “any ships trying to
enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz.”
●
Threat to interdict vessels that paid tolls to Iran.
●
Claims the US will “clean out” the strait and that Iran’s navy,
air force, and leaders are already “gone.”
CENTCOM’s Actual Implementation (official
statement, effective 10:00 AM EST / 14:00 GMT on 13 April 2026):
● The blockade is limited to Iranian
ports and coastal areas in the Arabian Gulf (Persian Gulf) and the Gulf of Oman.
● It targets all maritime traffic
entering or exiting Iranian ports, enforced impartially against vessels of any
nation.
● Freedom of navigation through the
Strait of Hormuz itself is not impeded for ships going to or from non-Iranian
ports (e.g., Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait).
● US forces will use surveillance,
interception, diversion, and potential capture of unauthorized vessels heading
to Iranian facilities.
In practice, this is not a full closure of the
Strait of Hormuz (which would be extremely difficult and escalatory). It is a
targeted port blockade designed to cut off Iran’s oil export revenue while
allowing Gulf Arab states’ oil to continue flowing (with risks from mines or
Iranian harassment).
How the Blockade Operates in Reality (Military
Execution)
A naval blockade requires the following:
●
Surveillance & Monitoring: The US Navy uses
aircraft patrols, radar, satellites, Automatic Identification System (AIS)
tracking, intelligence, and coordination with allies. The monitored area covers
roughly 21,000 square miles along Iran’s coastline.
●
Forces Involved: Estimates suggest 15+ US warships, including guided-missile
destroyers (e.g., USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. and USS Michael Murphy are already in
the area for mine clearing. Retired Admiral
James Stavridis estimated two aircraft carrier strike groups for air cover plus
destroyers/frigates outside the Gulf, with additional support inside.
●
Enforcement Actions: Ships approaching Iranian ports without authorization can be
warned, diverted, boarded, or captured. Iranian fast-attack boats or vessels
attempting to break the blockade risk being engaged.
●
Parallel Efforts: The US is simultaneously conducting mine-clearing in the strait
(Iran laid mines earlier in the conflict). Two US destroyers transited the Strait recently as
part of this.
This is a classic “quarantine-style” operation
(similar to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis) rather than a wartime total
blockade. It aims to exert economic pressure on Iran without fully shutting
down global energy flows.
Potential Effects on Oil Flow
Short-term Impact (Days to Weeks):
●
Iranian Oil Exports May be Severely Restricted: Iran’s remaining oil exports
(mostly to China) are heavily disrupted. Pre-war, Iran exported ~1.5–2 mbpd;
much of this may be choked off.
●
Non-Iranian Gulf Oil: Flows from Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc., can continue in theory,
but shipping insurance costs have skyrocketed, and many tankers are avoiding
the area due to mine risks and fear of Iranian retaliation (drones, speedboats,
anti-ship missiles).
●
Current Reality: Traffic through the strait has already plunged dramatically since
February 2026. Even with the US assurance of safe passage for non-Iranian
traffic, volumes remain very low.
Medium-to-Long-term Risks:
●
If the blockade persists or escalates (e.g., Iran responds with
more mines, submarine attacks, or swarming tactics), overall strait traffic
could drop further.
●
Global oil supply shock: The Strait normally
handles ~20% of world seaborne oil. A prolonged effective disruption could push
Brent crude significantly higher (analysts warn of $120–150+/barrel in
worst-case scenarios).
●
Bottom Line (as of 13–14 April 2026)
●
The blockade is targeted at Iranian ports rather than a total
strait closure, but in practice,
US Perspective: Trump argues the US doesn’t need the strait
(boasting higher domestic production than Saudi Arabia + Russia combined) and
that the blockade pressures Iran into accepting no nuclear weapons while
protecting global shipping from “blackmail.”
Iranian Counter: Tehran calls the move doomed to fail and warns
of “untapped capacities.” Iran could use asymmetric tactics (mines, drones,
fast boats) to harass shipping, raising risks even for non-Iranian tankers.
Summary
The blockade is targeted at Iranian ports rather
than a total strait closure, but in practice, it creates a high-risk
environment that discourages most commercial shipping. Oil flow from the
Persian Gulf is already severely reduced, contributing to prices hovering near
or above $100/barrel. The operation aims to economically isolate Iran without
triggering a wider war, but it carries significant escalation risks and global
economic costs.
Virtually, yes, by the SOH, which is now under
double blockade?
Iran’s Original Action (Since late February
2026)
●
Iran effectively disrupted / selectively controlled the Strait of
Hormuz (SOH) as a response to US-Israeli military strikes.
●
It did not impose a total closure for everyone.
●
Iran allowed limited passage for ships from “friendly” or neutral
countries (especially China, India, Pakistan, South Korea, and Japan)—often after payment of transit fees/tolls ($2M in CNY) or
special arrangements.
●
It heavily restricted or harassed vessels linked to the US,
Israel, or their close allies.
●
This was Iran’s asymmetric leverage: partial control to pressure
the West while still earning revenue from selective oil exports (mainly to
China).
US Naval Blockade (Began 13 April 2026 at 10:00
AM EST)
●
The US (via CENTCOM) imposed a targeted blockade focused on
Iranian ports and coastal areas.
●
It aims to block all maritime traffic entering or exiting Iranian
ports (impartially against any nation’s vessels).
●
Officially, the US says it is not closing the Strait of Hormuz
itself — ships going to or from non-Iranian ports (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar,
Kuwait, etc.) are still allowed to transit.)
●
In reality, the presence of US warships, potential undersea mines
(laid by Iran), US/Iran inspections, and risk of interdiction has created a
high-risk environment, causing many commercial ships to turn away or delay.
Is It Now a "Double Blockade"?
Not precisely — it’s more like overlapping and
competing restrictions:
●
Iran’s restriction: Selective/discriminatory (harms adversaries more, allows friendly nations like
China and India with conditions).
●
US restriction: Targeted at Iranian-linked traffic and ports
(harms Iran’s oil exports and any ship with a clear Iranian
connection).
Real-world effect on major players:
●
China and India: They are not the primary targets of the US blockade. The US is
mainly trying to stop Iranian oil exports (most of which go to China). However,
any tanker with Iranian cargo, Iranian ownership links, or that paid Iranian
tolls risks being intercepted. This creates uncertainty and higher insurance
costs for Chinese and Indian tankers, even if they are technically allowed to
pass.
● In reality, a sanctioned Chinese
tanker (Rich Starry) has already successfully transited the strait after the
blockade began, showing that
enforcement is not absolute.
● For adversaries (US, Israel, close
allies): Both Iran’s earlier actions and the US blockade make passage riskier
or impossible.
Conclusions
●
It’s a double whammy, even if theoretically/practically it is not a clean “double blockade” where both sides are
fully closing the strait against everyone.
●
It is a messy, overlapping standoff: Iran selectively controlled
the strait—the US is now selectively choking Iran’s ports and revenue.
●
The combined effect has drastically reduced overall shipping
volume through the SOH, pushing oil prices higher and creating uncertainty for
all major importers (China, India, Japan, South Korea, etc.), even though the
US claims it is protecting “freedom of navigation” for non-Iranian traffic.
The situation remains fluid. Enforcement of the
US blockade is still being tested in the first 24–48 hours, and Iran has
threatened asymmetric responses (mines, drones, fast boats) that could further
complicate safe passage for everyone.
Reality check
A US-sanctioned Chinese tanker successfully
transited the Strait of Hormuz on 14 April 2026, despite the ongoing American
naval blockade of Iranian ports, according to shipping data reported by
Reuters. The medium-range tanker Rich Starry, owned by the Shanghai-based
Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd, became the first vessel to exit the Gulf
since the US blockade began on 13 April. It was carrying approximately 250,000
barrels of methanol, loaded at Hamriyah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The tanker and its owner were sanctioned by the United States for previous
dealings with Iran. The vessel had initially turned back shortly after the
blockade started on 13 April, but later resumed its transit and successfully
passed through the strait.
This incident highlights potential challenges in
fully enforcing the blockade, especially for vessels with Chinese connections.
It also underscores the complex nature of the US operation, which primarily
targets Iranian ports and associated shipping while attempting to maintain
freedom of navigation for non-Iranian traffic.
Here's a clear summary and up-to-date comparison
of actual shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) as of 14 April
2026:
●
Pre-Iran war: ~130 ships/day
●
During Iranian disruption (March–early April): 5–15 ships/day
●
Right now (post-US blockade): 3–10 ships/day (still ~5–8% of
normal)
There has been no real recovery in traffic. The
strait remains in a severely disrupted state, contributing to high oil prices
and global supply concerns. The next few days will be critical as the US
blockade enforcement is tested and diplomatic efforts (possible new talks in
Pakistan) continue. The development comes amid continued diplomatic efforts,
with Pakistan proposing a second round of US-Iran talks and indirect contacts
ongoing between Washington and Tehran.
The US and Iranian negotiation teams are
expected to return to Islamabad for a second round of peace talks later this
week, according to four sources cited on 14 April 2026. Pakistan has formally
proposed hosting the next in-person meeting in Islamabad before the current
two-week ceasefire expires around 22 April. The proposal is flexible — the
venue could shift to another location (such as Geneva) if either side requests
it. Pakistani officials described the first round of talks (11–12 April) as
part of an ongoing diplomatic process rather than a one-off failure. Despite
the lack of agreement after 21 hours, both sides have left the door open for
further dialogue. The US Vice President JD Vance has said significant progress
was made and a “grand deal” remains possible, but the ball is in Iran’s court
on the nuclear issue. Indirect contacts continue, and both Washington and
Tehran are reportedly weighing the timing and format of the next round.
The development comes as the US naval blockade
of Iranian ports remains in force and shipping traffic through the Strait of
Hormuz stays severely limited. A new round of talks would aim to resolve the
core sticking points — particularly Iran’s nuclear programme — before the
ceasefire deadline.
According to a New York Times (NYT) report on 13
April 2026, Iran has formally responded to the US proposal made during the
Islamabad talks by offering to halt uranium enrichment for only five years
(against US demand of 20-years). The US had demanded a 20-year
suspension of enrichment activities. Tehran rejected the longer timeline and
proposed the shorter five-year period instead. Iran also indicated it would be
willing to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but US officials
expressed skepticism, noting that dilution can be easily reversed later to
reconstitute weapons-grade material. A senior US official told the New
York Times that President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s five-year proposal. The
US continues to insist on the permanent removal of Iran’s enriched uranium
stockpile and a firm, long-term commitment that Iran will never develop a
nuclear weapon.
Despite the rejection, both sides are reportedly
discussing the possibility of another round of face-to-face talks, although no
concrete plans or dates have been finalized yet. This latest exchange
highlights the wide gap that remains on the nuclear issue — the central
sticking point that caused the collapse of the first round of negotiations in
Islamabad last weekend. The two-week ceasefire continues to hold under heavy
strain as the US naval blockade remains in effect.
According to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report
on 14 April 2026, Israel has not carried out any strikes on Beirut since
Wednesday, following direct pressure from the Trump admin. The last major Israeli attack on the Lebanese
capital occurred on Wednesday, when the Israeli military hit around 100 targets
across Lebanon in a rapid 90-second operation. The Lebanese health ministry
reported more than 350 people killed in those strikes (without specifying how
many combatants were killed).
President Trump personally called Israeli Prime
Minister Netanyahu after the intense attacks, urging him to scale down
operations in Lebanon. Washington expressed concern that continued heavy
strikes were undermining the fragile US-Iran ceasefire and complicating ongoing
diplomatic efforts. While Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that there is no
ceasefire with Lebanon and that Israeli operations against Hezbollah will
continue, strikes in the south of the country have since been conducted at
lower intensity. The US has also pressed Israel to begin direct negotiations
with Lebanon.
This development reflects growing American
efforts to compartmentalize the Iran conflict and prevent the Lebanese front
from derailing the broader US-Iran diplomatic track and the two-week ceasefire.
In the 1st ceasefire meeting on April 11-12, despite significant
progress and on the verge of the Islamabad MoU, the US tone/stance suddenly
changed after Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly made an unscheduled call to the
US VP Vance during the meeting/face-to-face talks between the US and Iran in
the presence of Pakistani officials.
Conclusions
Both the Trump/US and Iran, as well as most
other global leaders, including Chinese President Xi, now want to end the Iran
war for a permanent peace plan. Trump may not risk his political future further
in the forthcoming November’26 mid-term election by engaging in a never-ending
war with Iran ─ something which most of the Americans do not approve. As a
businessman & deal maker, Trump wants to sell US oil & gas 9emergy) to
the rest of the world (including mighty China) by blocking the SOH. But this
may not be acceptable to China, and we may see a middle path and face-saving
exit for both ─ Trump/US and Iran.
Bottom line
Trump is demanding 20-years of nuclear
enrichment ban for Iran, while Iran is now offering 5-years for that. In the 2nd
round of peace talks in the coming weekend, Iran and the US may agree on a
10-year ouclear enrichment ban (middle ground). Another issue of the Lebanon
war, Israel may soon start ceasefire talks with Lebanon in the presence of US
officials. Iran may not compromise with its missile programs and the SOH
leverage. It will ensure joint ownership
along with Oman for the SOH toll tax system for the reconstruction effort. There
may be a temporary/permanent ceasefire between Iran and the US/Israel in the 2nd
meeting before the 14-day temporary ceasefire period expires on April 22, 2026.
Market impact
On late Monday and early Tuesday, oil and USD
stumbled, while stocks, UST (bonds), and gold gained (recovered) on hopes of
the 2nd ceasefire meeting over the weekend. India’s Gift Nifty was
trading around 24150 against Monday’s Nifty closing at 23858. If the 2nd
ceasefire meeting is fully/partially successful (another extension of the
temporary ceasefire or even a permanent ceasefire deal).
Technical
outlook: Gift Nifty and Oil (WTI)
Looking ahead,
whatever may be the narrative, technically Gift Nifty Future (CMP: 24150) now
has to sustain over 24250-24400 for a further rally to 24700/25050* and
25500*/25800-26100/26500* in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 24200,
Gift Nifty may fall to 23700/23400-23100/23300 and 23000/22500-
22300/22000-21800*/21500 and 21000/20600-18850/18000-17500/16850 and even 14350
in the coming days (base to worst case scenario).
Looking ahead,
whatever may be the narrative, technically oil (CMP: 97) now
has to sustain over 105-115 for a further rally to 121/125-130/155 and even
185-200 in the coming days (best-case bubble scenario if Iran's war escalates
further into a major global war). On the flip side, if oil sustains below
114-93, it may again fall to 87/85-80/75 and 70/67-64/60 and 54/50 in the
coming days.
Disclaimer:
• I have no position or plan to have any position in the above-mentioned financial instruments/assets within the next 72 hours.
• I am an NSE-certified Level-2 market professional (Financial Analyst- Fundamental + Technical) and not a SEBI/SEC-registered investment advisor. The article is purely educational and not a proxy for any trading/investment signal/advice.
• Please always consult with your personal financial advisor and do your own due diligence before any investment/trading in the capital market.
• I am a professional analyst, signal provider, and content writer with over ten years of experience.
• All views expressed in the blog are strictly personal and may not align with any organisation with which I may be associated.
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