Oil soared as Trump threatened Iran with the Stone Age rather than the golden age.
● Trump is
now desperately looking for a face-saving prompt exit from his Iran war mess
ahead of the Nov '26 midterm election.
● Trump’s
‘heroic’ speech caused more escalation rather than negotiation
● Iran may now be in the controlling seat for any negotiation with Trump
& Co
● Stocks
recovered from Trump’s ‘stone age’ panic low as Iran may be drafting a joint
protocol with Oman for the smooth passage of
ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil also
eased
On April 1, 2026,
President Trump delivered a primetime address to the nation from the White
House, providing a detailed update on Operation Epic Fury—one month after the
launch of a joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran. The operation,
initiated on February 28, 2026, represents a bold escalation in long-standing
efforts to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions and its role as the world's
leading state sponsor of terrorism. Trump primarily claimed ‘victory’ and tried
to describe his Iran war as ‘fun’ as 'the shortest ever for 32 days’ compared
to other US war ventures (Gulf, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc.)—years of 'pain.'
Trump's epic speech
framed the special military operation against Iran (Epic Fury) as a historic
demonstration of American military superiority, declaring that Iran's navy had
been effectively eliminated, its air force left in ruins, and much of its leadership
and command structure decimated. He emphasized that core objectives—destroying
Iran’s ballistic missile & drone capabilities, dismantling proxy networks,
and preventing nuclear weapon development—were nearing completion, with
intensified operations planned for the next two to three weeks to "bring
them back to the Stone Age." Trump’s latest national address came amid a
fluid and high-stakes conflict that has reshaped regional & even global
dynamics, triggered retaliatory actions, disrupted global energy markets, and
raised profound questions about long-term stability in the Middle East.
Operation Epic Fury
builds on decades of tension. Iran has long been accused of supporting proxies
such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various militias responsible for attacks on
U.S. and allied forces, including the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing and assaults
on the USS Cole. Trump's administration has repeatedly cited Iran's pursuit of
nuclear weapons—despite earlier U.S. strikes like Operation Midnight Hammer
(through B52 bombers) in June 2025—as an existential threat that diplomacy
alone could not resolve. The operation's launch followed failed negotiations
and intelligence indicating Iran's intent to reconstitute nuclear facilities.
As per Trump’s rhetoric, if he were not in the White House, Iran could have
attacked Europe and also the White House (IS) with lethal weapons, including
nukes!
In his address, Trump
honored the 13 American service members killed in the fighting while
underscoring the necessity of action to protect future generations from nuclear
blackmail. The speech blended triumphalism with resolve, positioning the
campaign as fulfillment of a long-promised "peace through strength"
narrative.
Background and Launch
of Operation Epic Fury
The expected conflict
erupted on February 28, 2026, with sudden & heavy U.S.-Israeli airstrikes
across Iran. Initial operations targeted senior leadership, resulting in the
assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with other high-ranking officials.
Subsequent waves focused on military infrastructure, including nuclear sites,
ballistic missile production facilities, air defenses, and naval assets.
Iran responded much
better than expected through operation ‘True Promise’ with hi-tech missiles and
drone barrages against Israel and U.S. regional allies (GCCs), escalating
fighting in Lebanon through intensified clashes with Hezbollah. Tehran also
initiated attacks on commercial tankers and attempted to disrupt shipping in
the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint carrying approximately 20% of
global oil & gas trade. These actions contributed to a sharp rise in energy
(oil & gas) prices, with Brent crude sustaining above $100 per barrel and
peaking higher amid supply chain disruptions and panic.
By early April 2026,
the campaign had inflicted significant degradation on Iranian capabilities.
U.S. and Israeli forces reported (claimed) striking thousands of targets,
including over 7,000 in some updates from March. Iran's conventional power
projection—navy, air force, and missile launch capacity—suffered major
setbacks. Leadership transitions occurred, with Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as a
successor amid IRGC influence. Human costs have been substantial. Reports
indicate thousands of casualties on the Iranian side, including military
personnel and civilians, alongside damage to infrastructure and cultural sites.
On the U.S. side, 13 fatalities and additional injuries (~150) were
acknowledged. Regional spillover affected Gulf States (GCCs), with some reporting
injuries from retaliatory strikes.
Key Elements of
Trump's April 1 Address: White House Summary
Tonight, in a
primetime address to the nation, President Donald J. Trump provided an update
on Operation Epic Fury. After just one month, President Trump highlighted the
extraordinary achievements of the U.S. military, which has delivered swift,
overwhelming blows to the Iranian regime—decimating its navy, shattering its
air force, eliminating its key terrorist leaders, and systematically
dismantling its ability to threaten America, our allies, and the world.
Here are the top
moments from the address:
❖ As we
speak this evening, it has been just one month since the United States military
began Operation Epic Fury, targeting the world’s
number one state sponsor of terror, Iran. In these past four weeks, our Armed
Forces have delivered swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the
battlefield—victories like few people have
ever seen before. Tonight, Iran’s navy is GONE. Their air force is in ruins.
Their leaders, most of them—the terrorist
regime they led—are now dead. Their command
and control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is being decimated as we speak. Their ability to launch
missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed,
and their weapons, factories, and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces—very few of them are left.
Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and
devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks.
❖ From the
very first day I announced my campaign for President in 2015, I have vowed that
I would never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. This fanatical regime has
been chanting ‘Death to America' and ‘Death to Israel' for 47 years. Their proxies were behind the murder of 241
Americans in the Marine Barracks bombing in Beirut, the slaughter of hundreds
of our service members with roadside bombs, they were involved in the attack on
the U.S.S. Cole, and they’ve carried out countless other heinous acts… For
these terrorists to have nuclear weapons would be an intolerable threat. The
most violent and thuggish regime on earth would be free to carry out its campaigns of terror, coercion, conquest, and mass murder
from behind a nuclear shield. I will never let that happen.
❖ I did
many things during my two terms in office to stop the quest for nuclear weapons
by Iran… First, and perhaps most importantly, I killed General Qasem Soleimani
in my first term… And then, very importantly, I terminated Barack Hussein
Obama’s Iran Nuclear Deal… Essentially, I did what no other President was
willing to do. They made mistakes, and I am
correcting them.
❖ My first
preference was always the path of diplomacy, yet the regime continued its
relentless quest for nuclear weapons and rejected every attempt at an
agreement. For this reason, in June, I ordered a strike on Iran’s key nuclear
facilities in Operation Midnight Hammer… The regime then sought to rebuild its nuclear program at a totally different location, making
clear they had no intention of abandoning their pursuit of nuclear weapons. For years, everyone has said that Iran cannot have nuclear
weapons—but in the end, those are just words
if you’re not willing to take action when the time comes.
❖ As I
stated in my announcement of Operation Epic Fury, our objectives are very
simple and clear. We are systematically dismantling the regime’s ability to
threaten America or project power outside its borders… Our Armed Forces have been extraordinary. There’s
never been anything like it militarily—everyone is talking about it—and
tonight, I am pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing
completion. As we celebrate this progress, we think especially of the 13
American warriors who have laid down their lives in this fight to prevent our
children from ever having to face a nuclear Iran… Now, we must honor them by completing the mission for which they gave their
lives.
❖ Many
Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise in gasoline prices here at
home… This short-term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian
regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict. This
is yet more proof that Iran can never be trusted with nuclear weapons. They
will use them, and they will use them quickly.
It would lead to decades of extortion, economic pain, and instability worse
than we can ever imagine. The United States has never been better prepared
economically to confront this threat.
❖ To those
countries that can’t get fuel, many of which refused
to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, we had to do it ourselves—I have a suggestion. Number one, buy oil from the United
States of America; we have plenty. We have so much. And Number two, build up
some delayed courage… Go to the Strait and just take it. Protect it. Use it for
yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done.
❖ I have
made it clear from the beginning of Operation Epic
Fury that we will continue until our objectives are fully achieved. Thanks to
the progress we’ve made, I can say tonight
that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly —
very shortly. We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to
three weeks. We are going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong. In the meantime, discussions are
ongoing… We have all the cards; they have none.
❖ Tonight,
every American can look forward to a day when we are finally free from the
wickedness of Iranian aggression and the specter of nuclear blackmail. Because of the actions we have
taken, we are on the cusp of ending Iran’s sinister threat to America and the
world.
The President
announced plans for continued intense pressure over the next two to three weeks
while signaling an approaching end to major operations. He left open the
possibility of "spot hits" afterwards if residual threats persisted
but emphasized that Iran was "no longer a threat" in key military
domains.
On casualties, Trump
paid tribute to the 13 fallen Americans, framing their sacrifice as essential
to preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. He rejected past diplomatic approaches as
ineffective, citing decades of Iranian aggression and the regime's history of
chants like "Death to America."
Economically, the
address addressed rising gasoline prices resulting from Iranian attacks on
tankers and regional infrastructure. Trump urged affected nations—some of which
had declined direct involvement—to purchase U.S. oil and take responsibility
for securing the Strait of Hormuz, noting that Iran's naval power had been
shattered. He projected confidence in U.S. energy resilience.
Trump’s tone was
unapologetic, celebrating U.S. military prowess while calling for completion of
the mission to honor the fallen and secure global stability. Trump's narrative
sounds assertive and forward-looking. He opened by noting that one month into the
operation, U.S. forces had achieved "swift, decisive, overwhelming
victories" unprecedented in scale: Trump reiterated the operation's clear
objectives: systematically dismantling Iran's ability to threaten the United
States or project power beyond its borders. He stated that these core strategic
goals—neutralizing missiles, navies, proxies, and nuclear pathways—were
"nearing completion," with full achievement expected
"shortly—very shortly."
Military and
Strategic Developments
Operation Epic Fury
has prioritized air and naval dominance rather than large-scale ground
invasion. Strikes have targeted command centers, production facilities, and
proxy support networks. Israel's role has been prominent in certain operations,
including responses in Lebanon. Iran's retaliatory capacity has
diminished but not vanished. Limited missile launches and asymmetric tactics,
including maritime harassment, continue. The Strait of Hormuz remains
contested, with reduced shipping traffic causing global supply disruptions and
a fuel crisis in some regions. Analysts warn that prolonged closure could
exacerbate oil price volatility, potentially pushing Brent crude significantly
higher if not resolved by mid-April.
Economic and Regional
Impacts
The conflict has
triggered short-term economic pain. Oil prices surged due to fears over Hormuz
disruptions, affecting global markets and contributing to higher fuel costs
domestically in the U.S. and elsewhere. Strategic petroleum reserves have been
tapped, and some sanctions adjustments have been considered to stabilize
supply. Regionally, the war has intensified the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and
placed Gulf states on alert. International reactions have been mixed: some
allies expressed caution, while others quietly supported efforts to curb
Iranian influence. China and Russia condemned the strikes, though direct
intervention has been limited. Humanitarian concerns include civilian
casualties, displacement, and damage to infrastructure and cultural heritage
sites. Verification of nuclear dismantlement remains challenging without ground
access, raising questions about long-term non-proliferation success.
China-Pakistan
5-Point Peace Proposal for the Iran War (March 31, 2026)
In a joint initiative
announced on March 31, 2026, after talks in Beijing between Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang Yi and Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister
Mohammad Ishaq Dar, China and Pakistan proposed a Five-Point Initiative to
restore peace and stability in the Gulf and Middle East amid Operation Epic
Fury. Pakistan has acted as a key messenger/negotiator in indirect US-Iran
communications, while China seeks to position itself as a neutral diplomatic
broker protecting its energy interests.
The five points are:
●
Immediate Cessation of Hostilities — Call
for an urgent halt to all military operations by the US, Israel, Iran, and
proxies to prevent further escalation and spread of conflict.
●
Start of Peace Talks as Soon as
Possible—Urge inclusive negotiations without
preconditions of force, aiming to address underlying issues through dialogue.
●
Security of Non-Military Targets —
Protection of civilian infrastructure, power plants, and other non-combat sites
to reduce humanitarian suffering and collateral damage.
●
Security of Shipping Lanes (Strait of
Hormuz) — Restoration of “normal passage” for vessels through
critical waterways, countering Iranian disruptions and toll threats that have
spiked global oil prices.
●
Primacy of the United Nations Charter—Emphasis on sovereignty, territorial integrity, non-interference,
and multilateral rules-based resolution over unilateral action.
The proposal focuses
on de-escalation and economic stability rather than detailing Iran’s nuclear
program, ballistic missiles, or proxy networks. It has drawn interest for
reopening the Strait of Hormuz but faces skepticism due to vague enforcement
mechanisms and limited alignment with US/Israeli demands or Iran’s
counterproposals (which include reparations and sovereignty recognition).
Neither Washington nor Tehran has issued a formal response as of April 2, 2026.
This initiative
highlights shifting diplomacy: China’s growing mediation role and Pakistan’s
bridging efforts amid a conflict now in its fifth week. While it offers a
potential framework for talks, its success depends on battlefield realities and
willingness for compromise on core security concerns. The plan underscores
global concerns over energy disruption but remains an early step in a complex
endgame.
Iran’s own demand:
Tehran has outlined
its own five core conditions that must be fully met before any end to the war:
●
Complete and immediate halt to all
attacks and assassinations of leaders (by the US and Israel).
●
Establishment of concrete, guaranteed
mechanisms to prevent the recurrence of war.
●
Clear determination and guaranteed
payment of reparations for war damages.
●
End of the war on all fronts, including
a halt to attacks on Iran’s regional “resistance” allies (especially
Hezbollah).
●
International recognition of Iran’s
sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz as its “natural and legal right,” which
Tehran says must serve as a guarantee for the other side’s commitments.
●
Official toll tax for maintaining the
Strait of Hormuz, along with Oman (like Egypt charges for the
Panama Canal)
As per a report by
the Iranian news agency FARS:
●
Iran wants a full end to the war, not
just a temporary ceasefire
●
Iran may not accept a ceasefire or
enter talks with parties that breached agreements
●
Iran wants a sovereign security
guarantee from the US, Russia, and China
Iran's strategic
goals:
●
Prevent regime change/collapse
●
Expel U.S. forces from the region
●
Weaken Gulf monarchies' alliances with the U.S./Israel and strengthen Chinese influence.
●
Lift sanctions via economic pressure
●
Demonstrate escalation, dominance, and deterrence
●
Challenge the petrodollar (via yuan
tolls in Strait of Hormuz)
Strait of Hormuz
disruption and yuan tolls: Iran effectively disrupted shipping (20% of
global oil transit). Some vessels paid "tolls" or clearance fees in
Chinese yuan for safe passage, framed as reparations. This created a short-term
oil price spike and fuel crisis. Temporary U.S. sanctions relief on Iranian oil
exports occurred to ease global supply pressure. The U.S. fired over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in
the first four weeks — far exceeding annual production rates (hundreds per
year), raising Pentagon concerns about supply chain bottlenecks.
Iranian missile/drone
strikes severely damaged multiple U.S. bases in the Gulf, forcing troops to
relocate to hotels, offices, or Europe. Some bases became "all but
uninhabitable." Al Udeid (key CENTCOM hub) and Fifth Fleet facilities were
hit. The U.S. operations relied heavily on European bases (Ramstein, the UK,
Italy, etc.) as forward hubs after Gulf disruptions.
Expelling U.S.
forces: Bases were damaged, and operations disrupted, forcing adaptations
(remote work, Europe staging). However, U.S. air and naval strikes continued
from carriers, long-range assets, and European hubs. No full withdrawal; forces
were repositioned, not expelled.
On the other side,
Iran's resiliency and ability to impose costs despite conventional losses—Iran may be a
clear winner in this long war of attrition. Iran launched at
least 5,471 missiles and drone attacks on U.S.-linked sites in seven Arab
countries by late March. Many were intercepted, but the volume strained
defenses. Iran's regime survived initial decapitation strikes (including the
killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei); Mojtaba Khamenei assumed leadership,
and hardliners consolidated. Iran imposed real costs (oil disruption, base
damage, attrition via cheap drones vs. expensive U.S. munitions). However, it
failed to prevent the initial campaign or halt ongoing strikes. Conventional
military degradation was significant. "Winning" depends on metrics:
survival/resilience (Iran achieved) vs. achieving U.S. objectives of
neutralizing nuclear/missile/proxy threats (U.S. claimed progress toward them).
Trump Escalates
Pressure on Iran with Bridge Strike and Ceasefire Ultimatum (April 2, 2026)
On April 2, 2026,
President Trump posted on Truth Social a video of a US-Israeli strike that
severed Iran’s B1 bridge near Karaj, west of Tehran, described as one of the
tallest and most significant highway links in the Middle East, connecting the
capital to western regions. The strike, which occurred in two waves, killed at
least two civilians and damaged critical infrastructure, marking a shift from
previous U.S. restraint on purely civilian targets. Trump threatened Iran to
make a quick deal; else Iran will have to pay dearly: “The biggest bridge in
Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again—much more to follow!” and
issued a stark ultimatum: “IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO
LATE, AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF WHAT STILL COULD BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY!”
The move follows
Trump’s April 1 primetime address claiming major successes in Operation Epic
Fury, with Iran’s navy and air force largely destroyed and core objectives
nearing completion. While the U.S. had previously avoided widespread civilian
infrastructure hits to prevent turning Iran into a failed state, this
escalation aims to increase economic and logistical pressure on Tehran. Iran
vowed stronger retaliation. The strike signals Trump’s strategy of combining
intensified military action with a narrow window for negotiations before
further infrastructure is targeted.
Ongoing US-Iran
Indirect Talks and Iranian Threats
Indirect talks
between the US and Iran continue amid the fifth week of Operation Epic Fury,
according to Israel’s Channel 12 report. US Vice President JD Vance
communicated with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf through
Pakistani mediation, led by Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir. The
latest exchange occurred on April 1. Vance reportedly conveyed that Washington remains open to a ceasefire if
Iran agrees to immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical US demand
due to disruptions affecting 20% of global oil trade. He warned that President
Trump’s patience is “wearing thin,” noting the US needs roughly two to three
weeks to complete strikes on remaining identified targets while hoping for a
diplomatic breakthrough.
Simultaneously, Iran
threatened to target major Israeli highways, including Routes 1, 2, 4, and 6,
escalating rhetoric against civilian infrastructure in response to ongoing
US-Israeli strikes.
Pakistan has emerged
as the primary backchannel, with earlier reports of a US 15-point proposal
under discussion. Iran continues to deny formal negotiations under duress while
maintaining limited retaliatory attacks. The parallel track of military pressure
and quiet diplomacy reflects a tense “fight-and-talk” phase, with the Hormuz
reopening remaining a key sticking point.
The Iranian FM
Araghchi tweeted, "Striking civilian structures, including unfinished
bridges, will not compel Iranians to surrender." It only conveys
the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray. Every bridge and
building will be built back stronger. What will never recover: damage to
America's standing?
Valuable lesson from
the past
The U.K. lost its
global superpower number one as it was involved heavily in WWI & II
(1914-1945). Due to the huge expenses of the two successive world wars by the
U.K. and certain other issues, including the perceived US neutrality and
post-war stimulus/reconstruction theme, the U.K. was gradually degraded, and
the US was gradually promoted as the global superpower. The USD becomes the
global reserve currency, replacing the GBP (British Pound).
Fast forward, and the
US is still the number one global superpower in terms of economy, military, and
technology, followed closely by China. But going by increasing US/USD hegemony
and an effort to weaponize USD as a tool for scoring on geopolitical issues,
the BRICS-oriented global South, controlling almost 50% of the global GDP, is
now leaning towards Petro-Yuan and de-dollarization. As long as the USD is an
undisputed global reserve & trade settlement currency, the US can continue
to print USD at will and fund such wars or other chaotic policies.
Although, as of now,
the Chinese Yuan (CNY) is not a fully convertible currency, there is an
increasing share of CNY in global trade, around 7% against 50% in USD. By 2050,
China may emerge as the global superpower number one, replacing the US in terms
of economy, military, technology, and also global reserve currency to some
extent. The present share of global trade in EUR, GBP, and JPY is around 30%,
5%, and 7%. As China may not change itself for an electoral democracy from the
present status of communism/socialism, even after full convertibility of the
Yuan, the CNY may never be the replacement of the USD as GRC/GTC (Global
reserve/trade currency), but there may be a multipolar world led by the
US/Western Hemisphere (Global North) and China/Russia/India (BRICS-led Global
South).
So far, China is a
neutral country—after the 1960s mini-war with India, China has never involved
itself in a war directly. But China is helping its close allies like Iran and
Pakistan with state-of-the-art military products and also satellite-linked 21st-century
modern warfare tech. Almost all major Trump policies are making China stronger
and more acceptable globally, in a major shift of the 21st century.
China is now controlling the fate of the Iran war through its REMs (rare earth
materials) dominance—the critical materials for the production of chips to
missiles. As the US and Israel may be on the brink of a strategic shortage of
such interceptor missiles, they are dependent on the Chinese supply line. Thus,
overall, China (Xi) holds the ‘Triumph’ Card, not the US/Trump.
Operation Epic Fury
is ongoing and fluid. The U.S.-Israel side achieved substantial
degradation of Iranian conventional capabilities with relatively low U.S.
casualties. Iran demonstrated resilience, asymmetric leverage (Hormuz, drones,
proxies), and the ability to raise global economic costs, forcing adaptations
and temporary concessions. Neither side has achieved total victory. Iran
avoided collapse and imposed pain; the U.S. advanced its red lines on
nuclear/missile threats without full regional war. The conflict remains a
costly stalemate in strategic terms, with high regional and global economic
ripple effects. Developments evolve rapidly—Trump's April 1 speech signaled
confidence in nearing objectives while leaving room for escalation or
negotiation.
Conclusions:
Ahead of the November
'26 US midterm election, in which Trump/Republicans are set to lose the House
and may even lose the Senate and eventually the trifecta (House, Senate, and
White House majority), Trump is now trying hard for a face-saving exit at any
cost. Iran is performing in the 30-day war with mighty the U.S. and Israel much
better than expected with 21st-century electronic warfare, while the
U.S./Israel are still in the 20th century. China & Russia are
actively helping Iran in not only military satellite tech (exact
locations/coordinates) but also the huge production of high-tech
ballistic/hypersonic missiles and drones. Due to active Chinese help, Iran may
be far ahead of the US in terms of quality & quantity of
ballistic/hypersonic/cluster missiles.
Thus, Trump’s Iran
war ‘fun’ has now turned into 'panic,' and Trump is now desperately eying a
face-saving exit. Trump’s stated objectives of the Iran war keep changing
almost every other day—from regime change to the control of the Strait of
Hormuz and nukes, and even the prohibition of ballistic missile production.
Trump is also declaring unilateral ‘victory’ against ‘global terrorist’ Iran
almost every day.
Although Trump
promised 2-3 more weeks for an end to the Iran war, it may not end by April
unless Iran obliges. Trump’s constant flip-flops, changing goalposts, claims of
absolute victories, and his overall body language prove he is under huge
pressure for his Iran war mess—it's a strategic blunder that may not only cost
him dearly in US domestic politics but also in global geopolitics. China is now
fast-moving towards becoming the number one dependable global superpower by
2050.
Market Impact
‘Modern-day
Hitler'—Trump's ‘heroic’ speech, especially his ‘stone age’ threat for Iran,
caused a risk-off mode contrary to earlier moves/perceptions. The market is now
concerned about attacks & counterattacks on each other’s energy
infrastructure in the Middle East, causing more supply-chain disruptions.
Although Trump is trying his best to sell U.S. oil to the rest of the world
amid his Iran war miscalculation and misadventure, it’s not practical &
feasible, especially after considering the domestic demand of the U.S.
On Thursday, Gold and
Equity Futures slipped after Trump’s ‘epic victory & stone age' speech
against Iran. But Wall Street Futures also recovered, while oil eased slightly
on hopes of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after a report
that Iran and Oman may be drafting a protocol (transit agreement). Iran and
Oman are drafting a joint protocol to “monitor” and “supervise” maritime
transit through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian Deputy Foreign
Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, as reported by state news agency IRNA on April 2,
2026. Gharibabadi stated that tanker traffic “should be supervised and
coordinated” between the two countries bordering the strait. He emphasized that
wartime conditions require new rules, noting, "Wartime conditions cannot
be governed by peacetime rules.” Iran insists the protocol will not restrict
passage but aims to facilitate safe navigation and provide better services to
vessels.
The move comes amid
ongoing disruptions caused by Operation Epic Fury. Iran has previously imposed
or demanded tolls (reportedly up to $2 million per voyage in some cases), often
seeking payment in Chinese yuan rather than USD, challenging traditional petrodollar
practices.
On the same day,
three energy vessels — two oil supertankers and one LNG carrier managed by Oman
Ship Management Company — entered the strait by hugging Oman’s coastline. This
southerly route avoided the more common northerly path closer to Iranian waters,
marking a cautious resumption of limited traffic and the first LNG carrier to
exit the Gulf since the war began.
The protocol signals
Iran’s attempt to formalize long-term influence over the critical chokepoint
(which handles ~20% of global oil trade) while using Oman as a cooperative
partner. Gulf States and the US have criticized any imposed fees as illegal,
demanding full, unrestricted reopening as a key ceasefire condition.
Bottom line
Overall, it seems
that despite the devastation, Iran is not in a hurry to negotiate with the US,
while the US/Trump is now virtually begging for immediate negotiations and a
ceasefire. Trump is under pressure due to the following:
●
Adverse domestic political compulsions: most of the ordinary Americans do not approve of Trump, be it the Iran/Ukraine war (foreign policy) or the trade & tariff war (economic & trade policy)
●
Huge global pressure to end the Iran
war ASAP, as it may cause a synchronised energy crisis and GFC
if allowed to linger more than 2-3 months
●
Trump is set to lose the mid-term (Nov '26) and trifecta
●
The US & Israel are now running low on missiles/interceptors
●
Earlier, Trump may have planned for a quick end to his ’fun war’ with Iran, which is now fast turning into a
lingering ‘panic-war.’
●
This may eventually prompt Trump/Israel
to use some type of tactical nuclear weapons, and the subsequent chain of events may also result in a
mini-WW-III (conventional or even tactical nuclear) ─ as we have seen during WW-I & II.
●
China is eventually controlling the
Iran war through its REMs dominance and hold over Iran; China may not allow a lingering Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting its own energy security. Thus, China may prompt both Iran and the US for a fair long-term deal and de-escalation.
●
China may be the biggest beneficiary of
the Iran war; both the US and Russia are now involved in war
and incurring huge expenses despite being big
exporters of military & energy products (oil & gas). China is not
involved in any type of war and is also now one of the biggest exporters of military products, and
has a monopoly on REMs.
Technical
outlook: Oil (WTI)
Looking ahead,
whatever the narrative may be, technically Oil (CMP: 112) now
has to sustain over 115 for a further rally to 121/125-130/155 and even 185-200
in the coming days (best-case bubble scenario if Iran's war escalates further
into a major global war). On the flip side, if oil sustains below 114, it may
again fall to 110/105-100/95 and 87/85-80/75 and 70/67-64/60 and 54/50 in the
coming days.
Disclaimer:
• I have no position or plan to have any position in the above-mentioned financial instruments/assets within the next 72 hours.
• I am an NSE-certified Level-2 market professional (Financial Analyst- Fundamental + Technical) and not a SEBI/SEC-registered investment advisor. The article is purely educational and not a proxy for any trading/investment signal/advice.
• Please always consult with your personal financial advisor and do your own due diligence before any investment/trading in the capital market.
• I am a professional analyst, signal provider, and content writer with over ten years of experience.
• All views expressed in the blog are strictly personal and may not align with any organisation with which I may be associated.
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