Stocks soared; oil plunged as Trump blinked on his 'Iran war fun'
● Trump
was looking for a face-saving exit from his Iran war mess through active
diplomacy by Pakistan, but it may not result in permanent peace.
● Although
there may be an initial progress of negotiation talks in the early stage amid an expected Lebanon war truce, eventually
it may fail by Sunday, April 20, and Trump may
resume his Iran war ‘video game.’
● Stocks
may rally early next week and then plunge late next week
again, or after April 20, depending on the trajectory of the Iran
negotiations.
In a dramatic
eleventh-hour development on April 7, 2026, US President Trump announced a
two-week ceasefire with Iran, averting what had appeared to be an imminent
escalation into devastating strikes on Iranian infrastructure—both civilian
& military. The agreement, reached just before Trump’s self-imposed 8 p.m.
ET deadline, hinges on Iran allowing safe and regulated passage of vessels
through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
This temporary
pause marks a significant, albeit fragile, de-escalation in the conflict that
erupted on February 28, 2026, with joint US-Israeli military operations against
Iranian targets. The war, sometimes referred to in official US communications
as Operation Epic Fury, has already caused substantial loss of life, disrupted
global energy markets, and heightened fears of a wider regional conflagration
involving Iranian proxies in Lebanon and beyond.
The Iran war's
temporary ceasefire reflects intense diplomatic maneuvering, particularly by
Pakistan, which has played a central mediating role. Both Washington and Tehran
have framed the deal in terms that allow them to claim elements of success: the
United States emphasizes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the
suspension of Iranian disruption to global shipping. At the same time, Iran
portrays the pause as a demonstration of its resilience and a step towards
addressing its broader demands.
Both sides have
portrayed the agreement as a victory. President Trump described Iran’s 10-point
proposal as a “workable basis on which to negotiate” a longer-term deal, while
Iranian officials emphasized their country’s resilience and the leverage gained
from controlling the strait. Markets reacted with relief as oil prices fell
sharply on expectations of resumed shipping.
However, the
ceasefire is explicitly short-term and conditional. It does not
extend to ongoing Israeli military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and
deep divisions remain over core issues such as sanctions, nuclear enrichment,
and regional security. Negotiations are scheduled to begin in Islamabad on
April 10, 2026.
Key Terms of the
Temporary Iranian War Ceasefire
The agreement,
confirmed by both Washington and Tehran, includes the following main
provisions:
●
The US and Israel will suspend all
bombing and military strikes on Iranian territory for two weeks.
●
Iran will facilitate the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, with its armed
forces coordinating the safe passage of vessels.
●
Iran and Oman may charge fees on
transiting ships, with Iran’s portion directed towards reconstruction efforts.
●
Iran will cease its defensive and
retaliatory operations against US and Israeli targets, provided that attacks on Iran halt.
●
Pro-Iran armed factions in Iraq have
separately declared a two-week cessation of attacks on “enemy bases.”
●
The truce provides a window for
negotiations to convert the pause into a more durable agreement.
Iran’s Foreign
Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed on X (formerly Twitter) that if attacks
against Iran stopped, its “powerful armed forces will cease their defensive
operations," and safe passage through the strait would be coordinated with
technical limitations noted in some statements.
Vital Tweets by
Pakistan PM Shebaz Sharif: April 8-9
● Diplomatic
efforts for the peaceful settlement
of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly, and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive
results in the near future. To allow diplomacy
to run its course, I earnestly request that President
Trump extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests
the Iranian brothers to open the Strait of
Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also
urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to
allow diplomacy to achieve a conclusive
termination of war in the interest of long-term
peace and stability in the region.
● With
the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of
Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to
an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY. I
warmly welcome the sagacious gesture and extend deepest gratitude to the
leadership of both countries and invite their delegations to Islamabad on
Friday, 10th April 2026, to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to
settle all disputes. Both parties have displayed remarkable wisdom and
understanding and have remained constructively engaged in furthering the cause
of peace and stability. We earnestly hope that the ‘Islamabad Talks’ succeed in
achieving sustainable peace and wish to share more good news in the coming days!
● As we
proceed to *Islamabad Talks*, I wish to extend our deepest and sincere
gratitude to our brotherly countries, the People’s
Republic of China, the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia, the Republic of Türkiye, the
Arab Republic of Egypt, and the State of Qatar for extending
invaluable and all-out support towards
reaching the ceasefire and giving peaceful diplomatic efforts a chance to seek
a comprehensive and conclusive end to the conflict. I would also like to deeply appreciate and thank our
brotherly countries of the Gulf Cooperation
Council, whose consistent support and commitment to peace and stability in the
region remain quintessential for our efforts.
The leadership of all our brotherly countries and the United States of America demonstrated exceptional strategic
foresight, sagacity, and patience in giving
peace a chance. I also thank all our partners and friends across the globe who
have reached out and acknowledged Pakistan’s sincere efforts for global peace.
Let us all work together to forge a lasting peace in the region and beyond!
● Violations
of the ceasefire have been reported at a
few places across the conflict zone, which undermine the spirit of the peace process. I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties
to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon,
so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards the peaceful settlement of the conflict.
Trump’s Truths on
Iran: April 8-9
● A
whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t
want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have complete and total regime change,
where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something
revolutionarily wonderful can happen. WHO
KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long
and complex history of the world. 47 years of
extortion, corruption, and death will finally end. God Bless the Great People
of Iran!
● Based
on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan,
wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight
to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE,
IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the
bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already
met and exceeded all military objectives and
are very far along with a definitive agreement
concerning long-term PEACE with Iran
and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10-point proposal from Iran and
believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various
points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and
Iran, but a two-week period will allow the
Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of
America, as President, and also representing the countries of the Middle East, it is an honor to have this long-term
problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump also shared
Iran’s official statement, tweeted by Iranian FM Aragchi:
Trump also
offered Iran a ‘golden age’ instead of the earlier threat of the ‘stone age’: a big day for
world peace! Iran wants it to happen; they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has
everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic
buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big
money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading
up with supplies of all kinds and just "hanging around” to make sure that
everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are
experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump also
offered Iran a trade deal and sanction relief in lieu of the handover of its
HEUs to the US. Trump is also looking for an active US role (contractors) to
rebuild Iran (after the destruction): The United States
will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what
will be a very productive regime change! There will be no enrichment of
uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all
of the deeply buried nuclear "dust" (B-2 bombers). It is now, and has
been, under very exacting satellite surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has
been touched since the date of the attack. We are, and will be, talking about
tariff and sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been
agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J.
TRUMP
Trump also
indirectly threatened to impose 50% additional tariffs on China, Russia, and
any other countries suspected of helping Iran militarily: A country
supplying military weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any goods
sold to the United States of America, at 50%, effective immediately. There will
be no exclusions or exemptions! President DJT
On April 8,
Iran’s Foreign Minister Aragchi also warned about Lebanon war ceasefire
violations by Israel: the Iran–U.S. ceasefire terms are clear and
explicit: the U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Lebanon. It
cannot have both. The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the
U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.
Iran’s 10-Point
Proposal
Central to the
discussions is Iran’s 10-point plan, which has not been fully released publicly
but includes the following key elements, according to reports:
1. A fundamental
US commitment to non-aggression.
2. Controlled
passage through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated by Iranian armed forces.
3. Acceptance of
Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
4. Lifting of all
primary and secondary sanctions.
5. Termination of
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolutions against Iran.
6. Ending of UN
Security Council resolutions targeting Iran.
7. Withdrawal of
US combat forces from regional bases.
8. Full
compensation for war damages, partly funded through straight transit fees.
9. Release of
frozen Iranian assets abroad.
10. Ratification
of the agreement via a binding UN Security Council resolution.
Iran war pause
chronology.
Did the failed US
attempt to raid the Isfahan nuclear facility and extract HEU lead to Trump’s F
& B-word threat for Iran?
According to
Iranian state media (Press TV), US Special Forces walked into a carefully
prepared Iranian trap during a ground insertion at an abandoned airstrip in the
central/southern Isfahan province, just around 25 km from the suspected nuclear
site. Iranian forces—including the regular army (Artesh), IRGC, law enforcement
(Faraja), and local Basij militias—maintained full alert and used deception as
the core tactic. When the first US C-130 landed and offloaded dozens of
commandos, Iranian units deliberately withheld heavy fire, creating the
illusion of an uncontested landing. This lured additional US aircraft and
helicopters into the zone.
Once the second
transport and supporting helicopters arrived and troops were exposed on the
ground, Iranian forces sprung the ambush. Coordinated fire from multiple
directions targeted the concentrated aircraft and personnel in a classic kill
zone. Iranian sources claim two C-130 transport planes and two Black Hawk
helicopters were destroyed or heavily damaged before they could extract the
commandos by providing intense air cover and a fire ring around a 5-km radius
of the ‘abandoned airstrip’ trap.
The operation,
which Iran portrayed as an attempted raid on a nuclear-related site (rather
than a pure rescue by Trump & Co.), was forced to pivot into a desperate
evacuation under fire. This multi-layered response—combining intelligence
preparation, patience, terrain advantage, and rapid joint-force
reaction—exemplifies Iran’s asymmetric “mosaic defense" doctrine against
technologically superior foes.
There were
visible marks of air defense system hits on the bodies of the C-130s, as is
visible from the images of the crash site, which indicates that the aircraft
came under fire while landing, rendering them inoperable to fly back. Further,
Iranian Basij and IRGC Special Forces tried to reach the landing site, but they
were likely deterred by US air support in favor of its ground troops'
insertion. Having its cover blown off, the covert operation, US military
personnel destroyed its inoperable jets, aborting the mission and calling upon
backup, three Dash-8 aircraft, to extract them from a failed mission.
The broader
implications of these events extend beyond the immediate tactical outcome. The
ability of Iranian air defenses to engage and potentially down advanced U.S.
aircraft within central Iran challenges assumptions regarding air superiority
in the region. The apparent detection and disruption of a large-scale SOF
insertion further underscores the effectiveness of Iranian surveillance and
response capabilities. For the United States and its allies, the episode raises
questions about operational planning, risk assessment, and the limits of covert
action in contested environments. The old assumptions by the Americans that
Iran’s air defense systems and its missiles & drone capability systems have
been substantially degraded have turned out to be gross exaggerations.
The Iranians are,
however, undeterred, refusing to negotiate and give away the strategic leverage
gained by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, which supplies 20% of the world's
energy in oil, gas & other cargoes.
It would,
however, be foolish to believe any de-escalation is on offer, as the US would
once again try such insertions and raids in Iran & probably next at Kharg
Island, Qesham Island, or the Greater Tunb or Lesser Tunb islands in the Strait
of Hormuz. Such insertion
operations are again fraught with danger, given that Iranian air defense
systems are still intact, as we have seen over the last few days.
In a highly
publicized, expletive-laden Truth Social post on April 5, President Trump
issued a direct ultimatum to Iran over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: “Tuesday will
be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will
be nothing like it!!! Open the fucking
strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell—JUST WATCH! Praise be
to Allah."
Summary of
Trump’s Comments on Iran (March – 9 April 2026)
Since the start
of the US-Iran war on 28 February 2026, President Trump has maintained a
consistently aggressive rhetorical stance, combining strong military threats
with occasional openings for diplomacy, primarily delivered via Truth Social
posts, White House briefings, and a national address.
Early March
(March 1–mid-March):
Trump repeatedly
claimed rapid US-Israeli success, stating variations of “We won the war."
“We defeated Iran,” and the conflict was “ending almost completely.” He warned
that any Iranian disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would trigger
strikes “twenty times harder,” promising “Death, Fire, and Fury.”
Late March to
early April:
Trump escalated
threats over the closed Strait of Hormuz, setting multiple deadlines. In a
profanity-laden Easter Sunday (5 April) post, he declared, “Tuesday will be
Power Plant Day and Bridge Day,” telling Iran to “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you
crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.” He vowed to obliterate bridges,
power plants, oil facilities, and possibly desalination plants, stating the US
would bring Iran “back to the Stone Ages.”
1 April National
Address:
Trump said the
war was “nearing completion” with core objectives (preventing a nuclear Iran)
nearly achieved. He warned the US would “hit them extremely hard” over the next
two to three weeks and “finish the job” quickly, while claiming Iran’s new
leadership was “less radical and much more reasonable.”
6–7 April (Peak
Escalation):
Trump intensified
warnings ahead of his 8 p.m. ET deadline on 7 April. He stated the “entire
country can be taken out in one night,” every bridge would be “decimated,” and
every power plant would be “burning, exploding, and never to be used again.” On
the morning of 7 April, he posted: “A whole civilization will die tonight,
never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably
will.” He also referenced ending “47 years of extortion, corruption, and
death.”
7–8 April
Ceasefire Announcement:
Hours before the
deadline, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, suspending US bombing in
exchange for Iran’s “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of the Strait of
Hormuz. He credited Pakistani mediation and described Iran’s 10-point proposal
as a “workable basis on which to negotiate,” while noting “almost all of the
various points of past contention have been agreed to.” He later called the
outcome a “total and complete victory, 100%.”
Overall Tone:
TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)
Trump’s comments
blended maximum-pressure threats (targeting civilian infrastructure) with
claims of US dominance and openness to a deal if Iran met key demands,
especially reopening the Strait and forgoing nuclear weapons. He has
consistently framed the conflict as a success for American strength while
keeping a diplomatic off-ramp available.
Iran’s 10-Point
Proposal
Central to the
discussions is Iran’s 10-point plan, which has not been fully released publicly
but includes the following key elements, according to reports:
1. A fundamental
US commitment to non-aggression.
2. Controlled
passage through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated by Iranian armed forces.
3. Acceptance of
Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
4. Lifting of all
primary and secondary sanctions.
5. Termination of
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolutions against Iran.
6. Ending of UN
Security Council resolutions targeting Iran.
7. Withdrawal of
US combat forces from regional bases.
8. Full
compensation for war damages, partly funded through straight transit fees.
9. Release of
frozen Iranian assets abroad.
10. Ratification
of the agreement via a binding UN Security Council resolution.
President Trump
has described the proposal as containing “very good points," and “most of
them have been fully negotiated,” while cautioning that leaked versions may
differ from actual discussions. He emphasised that Iran’s nuclear stockpile
“will be perfectly taken care of.” Iranian officials maintain that ballistic
missiles are not up for negotiation.
Fragile ceasefire
amid escalated Lebanon war
As per the US,
importantly, the ceasefire does not cover Israeli military actions in Lebanon. Israeli Prime
Minister Netanyahu explicitly stated that operations against Hezbollah would
continue, issuing evacuation orders near Tyre on 8 April and contradicting
Pakistani claims of a broader regional pause.
On April 8, US VP
Vance says it ‘would be dumb’ for Iran to derail the ceasefire over Lebanon
before departing Hungary to join the Iran negotiation on April 10:
● We
have the Iranians promising to open the Strait of Hormuz, and we have a
negotiation that’s supposed to start this weekend.
● I
think it’s a good first step, but we’re going to see if we can make more
progress here in the days to come.
● Vance
says there has been a “legitimate misunderstanding” on Lebanon: I
think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t. We never made that promise.
● Israel
has “offered … to check themselves a little bit in Lebanon because they want
to make sure that our negotiation is successful—If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart in a
conflict where they are getting hammered over
Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them and which the United States never
once said was part of the ceasefire, that’s ultimately their choice. We think
that would be dumb. But that’s their choice.
Israeli Prime
Minister Netanyahu has firmly stated that the US-Iran two-week ceasefire,
announced on 7 April 2026, does not apply to Lebanon and will not halt Israel’s
military operations against Hezbollah. In statements and
a televised address on 8 April 2026, Netanyahu’s office and the prime minister
himself clarified:
●
Israel supports President Trump’s
decision to suspend strikes on Iran for two weeks, provided Iran immediately
reopens the Strait of Hormuz and stops attacks on the US, Israel, and regional
countries.
●
The truce “does not include Lebanon”
and explicitly excludes operations against Hezbollah.
●
Israeli forces will “continue to
strike them” and will "utilize every
operational opportunity” against Hezbollah to protect northern Israel.
Netanyahu
described the ceasefire as “not the end” of the broader campaign but “a stop on
the way to achieving all of our objectives.” He emphasized that Israel has its
“finger on the trigger” and is ready to resume fighting against Iran if
necessary—either through agreement or renewed combat. He claimed the deal was
reached in “full coordination” with Israel and highlighted “tremendous
achievements” in weakening Iran, while asserting that remaining goals in
Lebanon and beyond will be met. Israeli strikes in Lebanon continued intensely
on 8 April despite the US-Iran pause.
What’s next:
Negotiations and Potential Challenges?
Talks are set to
commence in Islamabad on Friday, 10 April 2026, under Pakistani mediation.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif welcomed the “remarkable wisdom” shown by both
parties and invited delegations to advance peace and stability.
Potential
headwinds:
● Lebanon
war issues: If Israel does not finish its accelerated military
operations in Lebanon before the April 10 Islamabad peace
talks, Iran may not participate in the meeting.
● Differing
interpretations: The US has been largely silent on
sanctions relief, asset releases, and force withdrawals. Israel insists the
truce excludes Lebanon.
● Nuclear
and military issues: While Trump claims progress on the
nuclear file, Iran insists on retaining enrichment capabilities and rejects
limits on its ballistic missile program.
● Trust
deficit: Experts such as Trita Parsi note that the failed US use
of force may have weakened the credibility of American military threats,
requiring genuine compromise for any lasting deal.
● Enforcement: US
officials have indicated forces will remain in the region to monitor compliance
with the strait reopening. But a full return to normal traffic will not occur
immediately due to logistical and security concerns.
The announcement
led to an immediate drop in global oil and gas prices, easing inflationary
pressures and boosting equity markets. However, on 8 April, there were few
signs of a large-scale resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,
with experts advising caution. Regional security remains tense. Continued
Israeli strikes in Lebanon on the day of the announcement underscore the
ceasefire’s limited scope. In the Gulf, sporadic alerts persisted despite the
truce. Trump has warned that if negotiations fail, the US could “go right back
to it [fighting] very easily.” Iran, meanwhile, frames the pause as evidence of
its defensive strength rather than capitulation.
The Iran war
ceasefire is for 2 weeks—what's next?
The US-Iran
two-week ceasefire represents a pragmatic de-escalation that has averted
immediate further destruction and addressed the most pressing global economic
threat—disruption to the Strait of Hormuz— By creating space for negotiations
in Islamabad, the deal offers a narrow window to tackle long-standing
grievances, including sanctions, nuclear concerns, and regional proxy
conflicts.
Yet the truce is
inherently fragile. Its exclusion of Lebanon highlights the compartmentalized
nature of the violence, while wide gaps remain between the parties on
fundamental issues. Iran’s insistence on retaining strategic leverage through
the Strait and its nuclear program contrasts with US demands for verifiable
limits and broader regional adjustments.
Success will
hinge on mutual restraint during the pause, constructive engagement in talks,
and willingness to compromise. Pakistan’s mediation has been crucial,
demonstrating the potential for regional diplomacy to bridge divides between
major powers. However, historical mistrust, domestic political pressures in
both Washington and Tehran, and the risk of provocations mean the path to a
durable agreement is fraught with challenges.
From a wider
perspective, this episode underscores the high costs of military escalation
involving energy chokepoints and the limitations of force in resolving complex
geopolitical disputes. A genuine, comprehensive deal could reduce tensions,
stabilize energy markets, and prevent further loss of life across the region,
while any failure, conversely, risks a rapid resumption of hostilities with
even graver consequences. As delegations prepare to meet in Islamabad, the
international community will watch closely. The coming days will test whether
this temporary pause can evolve into a lasting framework for coexistence or
merely serve as a brief interlude in a protracted conflict.
Latest Update
Ahead of Formal Ceasefire Talks in Pakistan (as of 10 April 2026)
Formal
negotiations between the US and Iran are scheduled to begin on Saturday, 11
April 2026 (local time), in Islamabad, Pakistan. The talks aim to convert the
fragile two-week ceasefire—agreed on April 7—into a more durable agreement.
Key Developments
● Delegations:
o The
US team will be led by the US Vice President (VP) JD Vance, accompanied by
Trump’s special envoys Witkoff and Kushner.
o
Iran is expected to send a high-level
delegation, possibly including Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker
Ghalibaf.
● Agenda:
Discussions will center on Iran’s
10-point proposal, which Trump previously called a “workable basis.” Core
issues include:
o Reopening
and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz (still far below normal traffic
levels).
o Iran’s
nuclear program (enrichment rights vs. US demand for
“no enrichment”).
o Sanctions
relief, US force posture in the region, and reconstruction.
o Broader
regional de-escalation.
● Major
Sticking Point – Lebanon:
o Iran
insists the ceasefire must include an end to Israeli operations against
Hezbollah, citing Pakistani assurances of a comprehensive regional pause.
o The
US and Israel maintain that Lebanon was never
part of the deal. Netanyahu has stated operations will continue, while Vance
described Iran’s position as a “legitimate misunderstanding” and warned it
would be “dumb” for Tehran to derail talks over this issue.
o Israeli
strikes in Lebanon on 8–9 April killed & injured over 200 & 1000
people, further straining the truce.
● Current
Status of Ceasefire:
o US
strikes on Iran remain suspended.
o Iran
has pledged safe, regulated, limited passage
through the Strait of Hormuz (up to 15
ships/day), but shipping volumes remain low.
o Various
GCCs like Kuwait alleged Iranian missiles/drones during the ceasefire, but Iran denied
it and blamed the US/Israel for such a 'conspiracy.'
o Pakistan
has ramped up security in Islamabad, offered visas on arrival, and declared
facilitation measures for delegates and media.
Trump’s pressure
tactics: April 8-10
● All
U.S. ships, aircraft, and military personnel,
with additional ammunition, weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for
the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded enemy, will remain in place in and around Iran until the REAL
AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If,
for any reason, it is not, which is highly
unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts" is
bigger, better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before. It was agreed
a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric
to the contrary, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and the
Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE. In the meantime, our great military is loading
up and resting,
looking forward, actually, to its next conquest.
AMERICA IS BACK!
● There
are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait—they better not be; if they
are, they better stop now! President DONALD J. TRUMP
● The
Iranians are better at handling the fake news media and “public relations"
than they are at fighting! President DONALD J. TRUMP
● The
Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short-term extortion of the world by
using international waterways. The only reason
they are alive today is to negotiate! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump Signals
Military Readiness as Iran Talks Near Deadline
Donald Trump said
US warships are being rearmed with “the best ammunition” ahead of talks with
Iran in Pakistan, as officials seek a final peace following a two-week
ceasefire. Trump said, “We’re going to find out in about 24 hours,” adding, “If
we don’t have a deal, we will be using them.” Negotiations involve US
representatives, including JD Vance and Iran’s Abbas Araghchi, focusing on
uranium transfer, Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and regional
security issues. Trump is preparing the military if Iran fails to comply in
talks—NYP cites a Friday interview with Trump.
Reaction from
Iran: late April 10th
●
Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: A ceasefire in Lebanon and the release
of Iranian blocked assets must occur before negotiations.
●
Iran Foreign Minister Aragchi: US
must adhere to commitments to include Lebanon in ceasefire and to halt Israeli
attacks against Lebanon—State Media
Outlook
Pakistan’s
mediation (led by PM Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir) continues to
play a central role. Talks may extend beyond a single day, potentially running
for up to next week. However, deep divisions over Lebanon, nuclear enrichment,
and sanctions make a quick breakthrough unlikely. Both sides have signaled
willingness to engage, but the risk of collapse remains high if provocations
continue.
Conclusions
Trump was looking
for an immediate face-saving exit from his Iran war ‘fun’ as it turned into a
messy panic amid better-than-expected retaliation by Iran—thanks to 40 years of
preparation and direct/indirect help from Russia and China. Trump’s Iran war narrative
lands him in a deep political crisis ahead of the November 26 midterm election,
which he is set to lose dearly. Trump’s insane, idiotic, & nonsensical
rhetoric, coupled with his imperialist & autocratic attitude, has led the
US to risk losing the savior and superpower #1 of the world tag to China. Trump
is also risking the NATO security alliance—much to the delight of Russian
President Putin. Whether Trump is a Russian asset or sympathizer, almost every
major geopolitical policy action of his is helping Russia and China. As we have
seen post-WWI & II, war-neutral China is now emerging as the biggest global
superpower in the 21st century, replacing the US, just like the US
replaced the UK after WWI & II.
China will be the
#1 global superpower by 2050 in terms of economy, military, and technology—this
will be the biggest geopolitical shift of the 21st century after the US
snatched the 'superpower' cap from the UK post WWI & II. The UK made the
same mistake by involving itself in a never-ending war, while the US maintained
a neutral stance (like China today). Although due to the 'USD' factor, the US
remains the #1 superpower, if China goes for the BRI currency (freely
convertible), it will inevitably challenge the USD hegemony—even if the BRI
does not become a reality, China, with its own CNY (partly convertible), can
challenge the petrodollar narrative.
The growing
petro-yuan narrative and the epic failure of the US to save GCCs may have
far-reaching impacts on geopolitics & economics. GCCs may decline massive
AI investment in the US and focus more on China for not only tech but also for
military products & services. Even if Trump resigns of his own after 2026
to pave the way for much more sensible/practical Vance as the next US president
to face the 2028 election, it will be too late & too little. There is a
global trust deficit in the US as the champion of global saviors. Trump may be
a Russian asset or sympathizer. Whatever the case, his every major policy
action is now benefiting China and Russia directly or indirectly.
The US said it
was pushing Israel to agree to a ceasefire ahead of Tuesday's talks with
Lebanon-Israel’s Channel 12 media.
Israeli
Ambassador to the US, Leiter, is slated to hold a first-of-its-kind phone call
this afternoon with his Lebanese counterpart, Nada, in preparation for the pair
meeting in person in Washington for direct talks on a long-term ceasefire, the
disarmament of Hezbollah, and normalization between Jerusalem and Beirut. A
senior official from the US State Department will also be taking part in
today’s phone call, as well as next week’s in-person meeting on Tuesday. Ahead
of the Tuesday meeting, Washington and Beirut are pushing Israel to agree to a
ceasefire in Lebanon as a demonstration of Jerusalem’s seriousness about
reaching an agreement. In making the case to Israel, US officials have argued
that the ceasefire would be framed as an achievement by the Lebanese
government, as opposed to a win for Iran, which had been demanding its truce
with the US cover Lebanon, to no avail.
Israel hasn’t yet
decided on the matter, but there are some senior officials in Jerusalem arguing
in favor of agreeing to a ceasefire, as it would merely return the sides to the
terms of the previous truce from November 2024, under which the IDF is allowed
to carry out attacks against threats deemed imminent. Such strikes have taken
place in southern Lebanon over the past year and a half on a very regular
basis.
Overall, Trump clearly blinked first and tried
for a face-saving exit from his Iran war mess as the ‘fun’ has now turned into
a full-blown ‘panic’ due to the following:
●
Growing adverse domestic political compulsions ─ most of the
ordinary Americans do not approve of
Trump ─ be it the Iran/Ukraine
war (foreign policy) or the trade & tariff
war (economic & trade policy)
●
Huge global pressure to end the Iran war ASAP, as it may cause a
synchronized energy crisis and GFC if
allowed to linger more than 2-3 months
●
Trump was already set to lose the mid-term (Nov '26) and trifecta
(House), and the Iran war may cost him dearly, contrary to his rhetoric.
●
The US & Israel are now running low on missiles/interceptors, while Iran seems
to have no such great issue—thanks to Chinese industrial infrastructure and supply chains.
●
Iran is waging a 20th-century asymmetric war backed by Chinese & Russian technology,
along with its own innovation and determination, while the US & Israel are still in the 19th century—symmetrical & predictable.
●
Earlier, Trump may have planned for a quick end of his ’fun war’
with Iran, which is now fast turning into a lingering
‘panic-war.’
●
This may eventually prompt Trump/Israel to use some type of
tactical nuclear weapons, and the
subsequent chain of events may also result in a mini-WW-III (conventional or
even tactical nuclear), as we have seen during WW-I & II.
●
China is eventually controlling the Iran war through its REMs
dominance and hold over Iran; China may not allow a lingering Iran war
and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting
its own energy security. Thus, China may
prompt both Iran and the US for a fair long-term
deal and de-escalation.
●
China may be the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war; both the
US and Russia are now involved in war and incurring huge expenses despite being
big exporters of military & energy products (oil
& gas). China is not involved in any type of war and is also now one of the
biggest exporters of military products and has
a monopoly on REMs.
Going by Trump’s
ongoing narrative, if ceasefire talks fail to reach a consensus and significant
progress by Sunday, then Trump may unilaterally start the Iran war again in a
desperate attempt to consolidate his fragile political position ahead of the November
'26 midterm election. But as the US may be running out of ammunition fast,
Trump may need more time to prepare to resume the war. Even if there are some
real progresses and talks continue next week, Trump may again start the war for
any excuse after 2 weeks in an effort for a ‘decisive victory’ against Iran
& proxies (China/Russia).
In the 1st
scenario of ceasefire talks breakup and the resumption of the Iran war,
equities may again plunge to a fresh panic low (base/worst); otherwise, in the
2nd scenario (optimistic/best) of ceasefire talks continuation for
next week, stocks may rally further to some extent, but after the two-week
ceasefire time frame, they may plunge again if there is no further progress and
the war starts again.
For Iran, it’s an
issue of trust deficit as the US & Israel backstabbed it during the two
such previous negotiations (June '25 and Feb '26). Iran may not agree to a
complete surrender of its nuclear & missile programs to US hegemony unless
China & Russia formally guarantee Iran’s security in the form of a
NATO-like security alliance through BRICS.
Depending on the Lebanon truce, we may see
further de-escalation first early next week and progress in negotiations,
followed by a possible breakup of negotiation talks and an escalation by next
Sunday, April 20, 2026. The US VP Vance may have an advantage if the Iran war
escalates further ahead of the November '26 mid-term election, which may lead
to Trump’s epic failure in the election and his exit/resignation and Vance’s
promotion as the next US president till the 2028 election. Republicans may
ensure Trump’s mid-term exit as a strategy to manage the growing
anti-incumbency wave over Trump’s bellicose & chaotic policies from trade
to the Iran war.
Technical
outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500, and Gold
Looking ahead,
whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 49100) now
has to sustain over 48700 for a further rally to
49150*/49500-49700/50000-506000*/51000 in the coming days; otherwise,
sustaining below 48600, DJ-30 may fall to 47600/46600 and
46000/45700*-45200*/45000 and 43800/43000-42000/39000-36800 in the coming days
(base to worst-case scenario).
Similarly, NQ-100
Future (25300) now has to sustain over 25700 for a further rally to 26000
and 26200*/26500-26700/27000 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below
25600, NQ-100 may again fall to 24600/24400-24000/23900 and further to
23600/23300-22800/22400 and 21900-21000 in the coming days.
Looking at the
chart, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 6850) now has to sustain over 6925 for a
further rally to 6955/6975-7025*/7100 and 7200/7300-7500/8300 in the coming
days; otherwise, sustaining below 6900, it may fall to 6835/6700 and further
6600-6500/6450 and 6350/6300-6250/6180 and 5860-4800 in the coming days.
Looking at the
chart, technically gold (CMP: 4770) has to sustain over 4800 for
4855/4885-4900/4925* and then 4955/5000-5050/5200 and the 5475*-5535*/5600 zone
in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 4890, gold may fall again to
4700/4600* and further to 4500/4390-4300/4260*-4230/4170 and
4135/4110-3940/3820 and the 3745/3680-3640/3600 levels in the coming days.
Disclaimer:
• I have no position or plan to have any position in the above-mentioned financial instruments/assets within the next 72 hours.
• I am an NSE-certified Level-2 market professional (Financial Analyst- Fundamental + Technical) and not a SEBI/SEC-registered investment advisor. The article is purely educational and not a proxy for any trading/investment signal/advice.
• Please always consult with your personal financial advisor and do your own due diligence before any investment/trading in the capital market.
• I am a professional analyst, signal provider, and content writer with over ten years of experience.
• All views expressed in the blog are strictly personal and may not align with any organisation with which I may be associated.
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