Gold, and stocks slumped on a hawkish hold by the Fed

 

·       But considering transitory hotter inflation and a stable but not solid labor market and Trump’s policy uncertainty, the Fed may be in wait-and-watch mode in 2026.

·       Although Fed Chair Warsh is too focused on inflation, he also downplayed June dot-plots due to likely lower inflation in the coming months amid the Iran MOU/deal

·       Warsh may start small QT in 2027 to reduce the Fed’s B/S with SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) relief for banks, so that they can buy more USTs to balance

On Wednesday, June 17, 2025, apart from the US-Iran MOU suspense, the focus of the market was on the FOMC meeting, the latest SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), the Fed’s policy decisions, and new Chair Warsh’s pressers. As highly expected, the Fed holds all of its key policy rates in June '26 for the 4^th consecutive meeting after cutting rates cumulatively 75 bps in 2025. But contrary to market expectations of no or one Fed rate hike by Dec '26, the latest SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) dot plots indicate at least 2 rate hikes in late 2026. This, along with new Fed Chair Warsh’s emphasis on inflation management (bringing it back to the target 2.0% at any cost after 5 years of failure), may be an overall hawkish hold stance. Subsequently, Wall Street futures, USTs, and gold slid, while USD and US bond yields surged.

But the overall impact was limited, as during the Q&A (presser), new Fed Chair Warsh downplayed the probabilities of two rate hikes penciled in by most FOMC participants in their dot plots, jokingly pointing out that those are all made with pencils and are easily erasable/modifiable. On a serious note, Warsh refrained from any types of forward guidance and pointed out that the June dot plots were made amid the perception of lingering elevated oil and Iran war/Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Looking ahead, by August, the US-Iran MOU and subsequent 60-day nuclear negotiations are expected to be successful in achieving permanent peace and a normalized oil price. Thus, inflation may also come down by Dec. '26, and it may be better for the Fed to wait & watch rather than make any rush decision of another two rate hikes to tackle this transitory inflation. In brief, the Fed may be on hold around the neutral rate (+1.0% real positive from average core inflation).

On June 17, the Fed holds the target range for:

·       The Federal Fund's Rate (FFR—interbank rate—SOFR) is 3.6% (median of 3.75-3.50%).

·       Primary credit rate (repo rate): 3.75%

·       IOER (reverse repo rate) 3.65%;

·       Overnight repurchase (ONRP) agreement rate (ONRP): 3.75%

·       ONRRP (Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement Rate) to 3.50%.

The Fed also closed the QT in December '25 and started the mini backdoor QE-5 (RMPs)—Reserve Management purchases at $40B/M (open-ended) to ensure an ample reserve in the balance sheet (B/S). The Fed's overall B/S size was around $6.71T on June 3, 2026, vs $6.64T on December 31, 2025; i.e., the Fed's present QE/RMP rate is minimal, around $0.014T/M.

Fed’s SEP for March '26: For 2026

·       Real GDP Growth: 2.2% vs. 2.4% prior; actual 1.7% for 2025

·       Unemployment rate: 4.3% vs. 4.4% prior; actual 4.5% for 2025

·       Annual core PCE inflation: 2.7% vs. 2.5% prior; actual 3.0% for 2025

·       Projected rate cuts/hikes for 2026: +25 bps each in 2026 and -25 bps cut each in 2027, 2028, and 2029 (longer) to +3.1% from 2029 onwards vs. -25 bps each for 2026 and 2027 for +3.1% from 2027.

Overall, for 2026, the Fed projected higher core PCE inflation (3.3% vs. 2.7%), a stable/slightly lower unemployment rate (4.3% vs. 4.4%), and lower economic growth (4.3% vs. 4.4%); i.e., almost like a stagflation/stagnation-like scenario. In 2024, the average US labor participation rate was around 62.6% vs. 62.4% in 2025 and is now around 61.9% (YTM-2026). The average unemployment rate was around 4.0% in 2024, and 4.3% in 2025, and 2026 (YTM). If the labor participation rate were around 62.6% now in 2025-26, the average unemployment rate would be around 4.8-5.0% instead of 4.3%.

Full text of Fed’s statement: June 17, 2026

“The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12–0 vote:

The committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.”

Implementation Note issued June 17, 2026

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on June 17, 2026:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, effective June 18, 2026.

As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"Effective June 18, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations at a rate of 3.75 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.5 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• When appropriate, increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves.
• Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities. Reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills."
• In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 3.75 percent.

This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

Full text of Fed Chair Warsh’s opening statement: June 17, 2026

“It’s an honor, a true honor, to be back at the Federal Reserve and to take up this duty at a time of such consequence. I have been especially heartened by the warm welcome of old friends and new colleagues, both, and I have listened closely to my fellow FOMC members. I’ve heard a lot of new ideas, new thinking, and genuine interest in moving the Fed forward.

This week’s FOMC meeting exemplified the very best of the Fed’s traditions: rigorous debate, open-mindedness, commitment to mission, responsibility, and accountability for performance. In this business, they all add up to one thing: getting monetary policy right—or as near to it as we can do. That is our north star.

My colleagues and I are here to serve our legislative remit, which you’ve heard us say before—price stability and maximum employment—and these objectives guided our business in the meeting just concluded.

As you saw a few moments ago, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the Fed funds rate at 3½ to 3¾ percent, in support of the Fed’s dual mandate. The Committee also reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are both strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed’s long-stated inflation goal of 2 percent, which has been going on for more than 5 years. Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people. But the recent past need not be prologue. I am pleased to report that members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous: this committee will deliver price stability.

At any institution, a change in leadership is a natural and timely opportunity to reaffirm its mission, to review current practices, and to consider whether those practices best meet our objectives. My Fed colleagues and I will be working in close collaboration to ask what changes might improve the conduct of monetary policy.

On that score, you might have already noticed something: a difference in today’s policy statement. It’s a bit shorter, a bit simpler—and it dispenses with some older language. That statement just gives you the facts, as best we can judge them. Absent, also, is the so-called “forward guidance,” which we agreed was not well-suited to the current policy conjuncture.

This afternoon, you also received the usual summary of economic projections. It’s been the practice of this Committee for participants to submit these projections, and I have encouraged my colleagues to continue to do so. I, however, have refrained from offering any projections of my own—consistent with my long-held views on the SEP, at least as currently structured.

In the median projections, real GDP rises at 2.2 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year, and total PCE inflation runs at 3.6 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year. The unemployment rate stands at about 4.3 percent. The median participant judges the appropriate federal funds rate to be at 3.8 percent at the end of this year and 3.6 percent at the end of next.

Let me turn now to a few words on a key initiative that we are announcing today. I am appointing a task force in each of five areas that are central to the broad conduct of monetary policy: First, Fed communications; second, the Fed’s balance sheet policy; third, our use and reliance on existing data sources; fourth, productivity and jobs in an era of transformation; and last, the Fed’s inflation frameworks.

These subjects are timely, consequential, and in my view worthy of a fresh look. My colleagues and I discussed them with energy and purpose over the last couple of days. For each of these independent task forces, I am enlisting some of the very best minds—both inside and outside the economics profession.

They will be supported by subject-matter specialists from our superb Fed staff. And they will have a straightforward charge: start with first principles; ask hard questions; examine current practice; consider alternatives; and, ultimately, propose next steps for policymakers' consideration.

Since last summer, my colleagues have discussed possible improvements in the form and function of Fed communications. This new task force will build on that effort—and, I expect, propose some well-considered changes, including to the SEP I mentioned a few moments ago.

The second task force, the one on balance sheet policy, will review the benefits and risks of the current ample reserves regime and the composition of the Fed’s balance sheet. They will assess alternative frameworks for the conduct and operation of monetary policy.

The third task force, the one on data, will evaluate new information sources and consider methodological changes to improve data gathering to give policymakers more accurate, relevant, contemporaneous, and perhaps most important, actionable information on the state of our economy.

Fourth, the task force on productivity and jobs. It will survey the pace, the reach, and economic impact of new general-purpose technologies, including AI, and explore the implications for the Fed in pursuit of our employment and inflation mandates.

The last task force, the one on inflation frameworks, will examine the drivers of inflation and first principles and weigh the full range of ideas for delivering price stability in a changing economy.

You will hear quite a bit more about these task forces and this overall initiative in the coming weeks. Enough for now to make a simple statement—each task force will serve an objective shared by everyone in the system and shared by everyone around that table that I sat with over the last couple of days: a Federal Reserve that is clear-eyed about its mission, fit for purpose, and focused on the future.

And with that, I appreciate your attention, and I’m happy to take your questions.”

Key Elements from the Statement and Warren's Press Conference

·       Shorter, simpler statement: Warsh highlighted that the new ~130-word statement (down from 300+) focused on "the facts, as best we can judge it," removed older language, and notably dropped forward guidance, which he said was "not well suited for the current policy conjuncture."

· Strong emphasis on price stability: Warsh repeatedly stressed the FOMC's unanimous commitment: “This committee will deliver price stability.” He acknowledged past shortfalls (“We’ve missed on inflation for five years, and we’re going to fix that”) and vowed that achieving the 2% target would ease hardships for Americans.

·       No personal dot plot submission: Warsh abstained from the Summary of Economic Projections/dot plot (though colleagues participated), consistent with his long-standing skepticism of forward guidance that could constrain policy flexibility.

·       Major Reforms Announced: Warsh outlined a significant overhaul agenda via five task forces to make the Fed "clear-eyed about its mission, fit for purpose, and focused on the future." Areas include:

o Communications (including potential review of practices like the dot plots/SEPs).

o   Balance sheet (for potential smaller size-QT)

o   Data sources (noting that current data/survey methods are “old-fashioned” and don’t reflect the 2026 economy; he wants more real-time insights).

o Productivity and jobs (embracing strong AI productivity-led growth).

o   Inflation frameworks

Overall, these reflect Warsh's push for Fed modernization/reform/recalibration and a sharper focus on delivering results on the dual mandate, especially price stability.

Highlights of comments made by Fed Chair Warsh on June 17, 2026, at the Fed presser/Q&A:

·       Would not be surprised if a new communication framework or adjustments to the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections emerge by year-end; until then, he expects colleagues to continue submitting their forecasts.

·       The FOMC has committed to providing projections and is expected to honor that commitment.

·       More information will be available at the meeting in six weeks.

·       Based on my observations at the meeting (reflected in the projections), my understanding is that roughly half his colleagues favor lower interest rates and the other half favor higher rates.

·       A new communications framework before year-end would not be surprising.

·       The Fed will strive to be a good steward of taxpayer funds.

· Warsh, when asked about renovations to the Fed headquarters, said he has met with the inspector general.

·       The Fed's Inspector General will issue a report later this summer.

·       The Fed will not hesitate to make statistical recommendations to executive-branch agencies.

·       The goal is not to completely overhaul the national accounts system.

·       Policymakers are focused on the demand-side effects of AI, while supply-side impacts remain less certain.

· None of the 19 (FOMC participants) thought monetary policy needed to be tightened today.

·       More work remains to achieve price stability.

·       I do not believe the Fed faces a stark choice between full employment and price stability.

· It is difficult to say policy is restrictive anywhere except in the housing market.

·       Monetary policy effects are uneven.

·       Artificial intelligence presents both opportunities and risks.

·       The committee discussed productivity and artificial intelligence today.

·       Events in the Middle East will affect the Fed's day-to-day operations, though they are not the Fed's responsibility.

·       The Fed's duty is to ensure there are no second-round price effects.

·       The Fed needs a broad perspective but must have clearly defined responsibilities.

·       Weekly meetings with the U.S. Treasury secretary are very useful.

· I have met three times to date with US Treasury Secretary Bentsen.

·       Warsh asked whether he had spoken with Trump and said he had nothing to say.

·       Authorities must ensure that price moves in oil, eggs, and beef do not spread through the economy.

·       The Fed cannot significantly affect specific prices.

· Warsh declined to comment on the rise in U.S. Treasury yields following the Fed's decision.

·       Markets and the public must know the Fed will achieve price stability.

·       I will not pay special attention to market reactions in the first few minutes and days.

·       Financial markets need to digest substantial changes.

·       The Fed has opened a new chapter in central bank history for markets.

·       The Fed will not outsource its decision-making to anyone.

·       I am open to new modern analytical methods, private-sector and third-party data, and reforms to official statistics, especially for the employment situation of the country.

·       I believe discussions ultimately produced a better outcome.

·       Only one policy proposal is on the table today, i.e., holding rates—all Fed policymakers held a constructive internal discussion on the matter.

·       Markets’ excessive focus on the Fed’s reaction mechanism will reduce efficiency.

·       Financial market prices (reactions) are central bankers' most important source of information.

·       Financial markets perform best when they react to data.

·       I am open to new data sources.

·       Some incoming economic data may only be echoes of the past.

·       Private firms rely on real-time information.

·       Most of the data the Fed uses relies on outdated survey methods.

·       The Fed has missed its inflation target for five years and must now begin correcting it.

·       The statement included the wording we prepared on inflation.

·       The Fed's commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target is firm, consistent, and clear.

·       Some of those changes may take the form of press conferences.

·       I expect further changes—future press conferences may depend on specific communication objectives.

·       Some future changes may warrant holding a press conference.

·       Press conferences are a very effective means of communication, and I hope to use them to convey important information.

·       I do not want to prejudge the outcome of the communications review.

·       Submitting my personal dot plot would not help policy implementation.

· I am impressed by colleagues' openness over the past two days.

·       Not heard a strong conviction in the participants' submitted forecasts.

·       I expect a comprehensive review of Fed communications by year-end, covering press conferences, the dot plot, and meeting schedules.

·       Fed's dot plot is drawn in pencil and can be erased.

· We have work to do.

·       The Fed's policy stance is uneven across economic sectors.

·       The Fed's policy is unevenly restrictive.

·       Fed policy appears restrictive for the housing market but not for financial markets.

·       I cannot provide forward guidance on the Fed's next actions.

·       Some believe providing forward guidance at this time would be inappropriate.

·       The Fed has abandoned forward guidance.

·       Inflation is primarily determined by monetary policy.

·       The Fed has the ability and determination to achieve its 2% inflation target.

·       Assessments of the inflation framework should focus on the drivers of inflation; the 2.0% target remains sacrosanct, not subject to any review.

·       The 2% inflation target will not fall within the remit of the inflation working group.

·       There is no reason to revisit the Fed’s 2% inflation target until that level is reached.

·       2% inflation has long been the Federal Reserve's target.

· I expect to achieve partial results before autumn and expect that working groups will complete their work by year-end.

·       A working group will begin operations within the next few weeks.

·       Each independent working group will assemble top talent from inside and outside the economics profession.

· The balance-sheet working group will review the benefits and risks of an ample-reserves regime.

·       The Fed's data working group will consider new data sources and methodological changes.

·       The Productivity and Employment Task Force will study the scope of the impact of artificial intelligence and other general‑purpose technologies.

·       A balance-sheet working group will review the Fed's bond holdings.

·       A communications working group could reshape the Fed's dot plot.

·       The working group's remit includes communications and the balance sheet; data sources, productivity, and employment; and the inflation framework.

·       Warsh names working groups covering five areas of monetary policy.

·       Forward guidance is not well-suited to the current environment.

· I encourage others to continue participating.

·       The Fed will ask what changes could improve monetary policy.

·       No dot-plot projections were provided today.

·       The statement omitted prior wording and stated only the facts.

·       Today's policy statement is shorter and simpler.

·       Leadership changes are a timely opportunity to reassess current practices.

·       Recent history should not be seen as a prelude to inflation problems.

·       FOMC members unanimously expect to achieve price stability.

·       Persistently elevated prices are a burden-- inflation remains far above 2% for over 5 years.

·       The economic activity is expanding at a robust pace.

·       Congress's mandate for price stability and maximum employment guided the meeting.

·       My colleagues and I are here to fulfill our statutory duties.

·       The meeting reflected the Fed's finest traditions.

Conclusions

The Fed needs to bring down core PCE inflation by around 100 bps and the unemployment rate by 30 bps for its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Thus, the Fed has to be around neutral or slightly restrictive to bring down core PCE inflation below 2.0% by keeping the unemployment rate around 4.0%. In the longer run, the Fed usually considers the average of core CPI and PCE inflation for 1.9% as inflation and 3.5% as unemployment targets. But for such a Goldilocks economic scenario, the Fed needs fiscal/government policy certainty and no supply chain disruptions (like Trump’s Iran war, tariffs & trade war, etc.). Till then, under Trump (November '28), the Fed may be under some types of political and policy uncertainty and may not be able to achieve such a goldilocks outcome.

As the present weakness in the US labor market is largely structural due to Trump policy uncertainty and AI issues, the Fed’s rate cuts may not ensure higher employment; it’s now a supply issue rather than demand. The Fed’s policy tool largely works on demand management, not supply. Some Trump MAGA supporters argue that if the Fed cuts rates further, then companies/businesses will borrow more to employ more people. But this is a bizarre idea. The US needs to impose a fair AI policy to ensure no structural harm in the labor market while keeping corporate America in good shape. Trump also needs to ensure a middle ground in tariff policies to ensure price stability, considering the harsh reality on the ground.

Taylor's Modified Rule indicates no rate action by the Fed in an ideal scenario.

The focus of the market is now on the Iran war/peace and the SOH/oil & inflation trajectory. Overall, at a glance, under Trump’s unpredictable policies, the US economy may now be facing a stagflation-like scenario.

·       Higher cost of living/inflation (adverse effects of tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and higher cost of energy/fertilizers/commodities) (Avg CPI 3.0% in 2024 vs 2.7% in 2025 and 3.2% current 3MRA till May '26).

· A higher number of unemployed persons despite a lower labor force; potential for higher unemployment.

· Lower economic growth (2.1% in CY25 vs. 2.8% in CY24); ~2.2% expected in CY26 by Fed.

The Fed has to act in a balancing way to bring down core inflation (average 3.0%) by around 100 bps for its inflation target. And at the same time, it has to ensure the headline unemployment rate is below the 4.5% red line and further bring it down to around 3.6% pre-COVID levels (maximum inclusive employment). Thus, overall, the Fed has to ensure neutral monetary policy—neither tight nor loose—to ensure a balancing act to bring down inflation without causing a sharp decline in employment. To ensure a soft landing, the Fed may continue to keep the real interest rate around +1.0% above the average (12M/6M) core inflation (CPI+PCE). Thus, the Fed may be on hold at least till Dec '26 amid transitory hotter US inflation (due to the SOH blockade and higher oil) and a stable, but not solid, labor market.

New Fed Chair Warsh often looks & sounds blunt. He is trying to bring QT from 2027 to reduce the Fed’s B/S size and inflation structurally, while at the same time, it may reduce/exempt the regulatory limit for banks & institutions in the form of SLR (supplementary leverage ratio)—so that US banks & financial institutions may buy a higher amount of US bonds to keep bond yield lower. Warsh may also justify higher economic growth along with higher productivity, resulting in lower/stable inflation.

The Fed may be on hold—in wait & watch mode—till at least Dec '26. But to bring down the higher probability of a rate hike in late 2026, the Fed’s new chair and other influential Fed officials have to talk (jawbone) proactively and sound dovish. Now the question is whether the new Fed Chair, Warsh, will do that, considering his recent comments on lower Fed speeches (jawboning) by various Fed officials.

Bottom line:

With transitory hotter inflation and a stable but not solid labor market, coupled with Trump’s policy uncertainty, the Fed may be in wait & watch (hold) mode for the rest of 2026 rather than in any hike or cut. But under Warsh & Trump, the Fed may be in a higher-for-longer policy till at least 2028-29, until at least another all-out recession or financial crisis hits the US/global economy. In that scenario, Fed’s Warsh may cut twice (50 bps) in 2028, ahead of the Nov. '26 US Presidential Election.

New Fed Chair Warsh is clearly a Republican supporter—given his repeated indirect remarks against his predecessor Powell, blaming him fully for reckless policy for higher inflation. But Warsh should have also noted Trump’s bellicose trade policies, COVID, fiscal stimulus, and again Trump’s trade & Iran policy—all are causing some types of supply chain disruptions and higher inflation, which may not be resolved by higher interest rates or tighter monetary policy and curtailing demand. The Fed's overall aim is to bring down inflation back to target, ensuring no hard landing. The Fed's talk (jawboning) is a powerful instrument to manage such a situation without acting on anything in reality. But under Warsh, it may not work properly, as Warsh is discouraging active jawboning and official forward guidance. The monetary & fiscal policy uncertainty under Warsh and Trump may not be good for stimulus-addicted Wall Street.

Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500, Gold, and Oil

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 51120) now has to sustain over 51500-51700 for a further rally to 52400*-52700 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 51300/51000, it may fall to 50500/50200-50000/49750*-49500/48800 and further to 48500/48000-47600/46600 and 46000/45700*-45200*/45000 and 43800/43000-42000/39000-36800 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (30500) now has to sustain over 30700-900* for a further rally to 31000/31200-31500*/32000 and even 32400/32500 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 30600/30300-30000/29500-29100/28300*-28100/27800, it may fall to 27400-27000 and 26600/26300-26000/25600; NQ-100 may again fall to 24600/24400-24000/23900 and further to 23600/23300-22800/22400 and 21900-21000 in the coming days.

Looking at the chart, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 7525) now has to sustain over 7700 for a further rally to 8000-8300 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 7675/7650-7550/7500-7300/7200 and 7100-6900, it may fall to 6835/6700 and further 6600-6500/6450 and 6350/6300-6250/6180 and 5860-4800 in the coming days.

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically gold ($4330) now has to sustain over 4375 for a further rally to 4400/4450-4500/4585 and 4725-4825; otherwise, sustaining below 4360/4300-4230/4190, gold may again fall to 4150/4090-4050/4000* and further 3970/3895-3715/3600 and 3540/3340-3080/2770 and 2660-2370 in the coming days.

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically oil ($80.00) now has to sustain over 76.00-77.00 for a recovery to 83.00-85.00 and 90.00-91.00-92.00/93.00 and 94.00/97.00-107.00/118.00 in the coming days. On the flip side, sustaining oil below 76.00 may further fall to 75.00/71.00 or 60.00/55.00 in the coming days.

 

 Disclaimer: 

• I have no position or plan to have any position in the above-mentioned financial instruments/assets within the next 72 hours.

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• Please always consult with your personal financial advisor and do your own due diligence before any investment/trading in the capital market.

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