Will Trump sign the Iran MOU by this week?
·
Although the Iran war may be over, the SOH double
blockade may remain in place until Trump removes ‘nuclear dust’ from Iran.
·
After the World Cup, Trump may try to remove
‘nuclear dust’ from Iran before the US midterm election to
declare US ‘victory.’
·
In the Monday US session, Wall Street futures, gold,
and oil wobbled as Iran and Israel agreed on a truce—after trading missiles
earlier in the day.
The 2026 Iran War, a multifaceted conflict
involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, along with its regional proxies,
has entered a critical phase approximately 100 days after its outbreak in early
March '25. What began as a series of coordinated US-Israeli strikes on February
28, 2026—aimed at degrading Iran's nuclear capabilities, missile
infrastructure, and military assets—has evolved into a protracted confrontation
marked by direct attacks, proxy skirmishes, and fragile diplomatic
interventions.
As of June 8, 2026, the region stands on a
knife-edge following the most serious breach of the April ceasefire to date.
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel on the evening of June 7, marking
the first direct assault since the truce took hold. Israel responded with
airstrikes on Iranian military targets early on June 8. These developments
threaten to unravel ongoing US-brokered peace efforts led by President Trump,
who has repeatedly emphasized the proximity of a negotiated settlement while
urging restraint from both sides.
Background
and Outbreak of Hostilities
The conflict erupted in late February 2026 amid
heightened tensions over Iran's nuclear program, its support for proxy groups
like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and longstanding US-Israeli security concerns.
Operation Epic Fury, the initial US-Israeli campaign, targeted Iranian military
bases, nuclear-related facilities, and regime infrastructure. Iran retaliated
with missile barrages, drone swarms, and attacks on US bases and Gulf shipping
routes, including disruptions in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Key early developments included significant damage
to Iranian sites, civilian casualties on multiple sides, and the death of
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leading to the ascension of his son Mojtaba
Khamenei. The war quickly drew in regional actors, with escalations involving
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi activities in Yemen, contributing to thousands
of deaths and widespread displacement.
Economic fallout has been severe: global oil prices
surged due to attacks on energy infrastructure and Iran's attempts to control
Hormuz shipping. Markets have remained volatile, with ripple effects on
international trade, aviation, and finance.
The
April Ceasefire and Its Fragility
A temporary ceasefire, brokered with involvement
from Pakistan and others, took effect in early April 2026. It included
provisions for de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, pauses in direct strikes,
and a framework for negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief,
and regional security—with a separate Lebanon ceasefire following shortly
after.
However, the truce has been repeatedly tested.
Skirmishes continued in southern Lebanon, Gulf incidents involving US naval
forces and Iranian drones persisted, and diplomatic talks—often conducted
indirectly—have stalled over core issues like uranium enrichment limits, frozen
assets, and Hormuz access. Iran has demanded concessions, including the release
of billions in frozen funds, while the US and Israel insist on verifiable curbs
to Iran's military and nuclear ambitions.
Recent
Escalations (June 5–8, 2026)
Tensions spiked dramatically in the first week of
June. On June 5, US forces struck Iranian radar sites in response to drone
threats against maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with
missiles targeting US-associated bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, though most were
intercepted with no reported casualties.
The situation deteriorated further on June 7.
Following a Hezbollah rocket attack on northern Israel, Israeli forces struck
Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburbs. Iran responded that evening by
launching approximately 10 ballistic missiles toward Israel, specifically
targeting sites like the Ramat David airbase, from which Israeli operations had
reportedly originated. Israeli air defenses, including Arrow and Iron Dome
systems, intercepted the majority, with no major casualties reported.
Early
on June 8, Israel carried out retaliatory airstrikes on military targets in
western and central Iran, with explosions reported near Tehran, Tabriz, and
Isfahan. Iranian state
media described the attacks as limited but vowed further responses if
aggression continued. President Trump publicly urged Israel to exercise
restraint, stating he had advised against immediate retaliation and expressing
confidence that a deal remained within reach.
In
the early US session, Monday, June 8, 2026, Wall Street futures and gold
recovered, while oil stumbled after Trump called for a renewed ceasefire
between Iran and Israel in his Truth post:
Both
sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final
negotiations on "peace" are proceeding, subject to ignorance or
stupidity getting in their way. The blockade will remain in place and in full
force and effect until a “final deal" is reached. Things should move
quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Iran
military command: Operations against Israel halted
Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya joint military command said
on Monday that the armed forces had halted operations against Israel after what
it called a “painful response." The command said the strikes were carried
out in support of the people of Lebanon after Israeli attacks in southern
Lebanon and Dahiyeh, which it said were backed by the United States. It warned
that any continued attacks, including in southern Lebanon, would bring a much
harsher response.
Iran
says Israel must ‘learn a lesson’ after the latest attacks.
Iran’s armed forces say its attacks on Israel are a
response from which the “Zionist regime and its supporters must learn a lesson.
Accordingly, the operations of the armed forces are hereby declared halted. However,
if the aggressions and acts of mischief continue—including in southern Lebanon—much
more severe and crushing actions than before will follow.”
Iran’s
Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said Iran is not afraid of US talks collapsing.
·
Neither
diplomacy prevents military operations, nor do military operations prevent diplomacy.
·
At
one point, with the threat of an attack and cutting off negotiations, you prevent
Israel’s attack on Beirut.
·
At
another point, with an attack, you show that you are not afraid of negotiations
being cut off and that you are fully prepared.
·
By
God’s grace, the result is that they are forced to retreat from our rights, and
we establish our own rights.
· So
it is not that we are supposed to either fight or negotiate.
·
Rather,
we are supposed to fight when it is time and negotiate when it is time. This is
how we can defeat the enemy. This is how, when we say negotiation is the
continuation of struggle, it becomes real.
·
Contrary
to what some think, there is no coordination among officials. There is full
coordination among officials to reach the objectives.
·
The
hands of our armed forces are always open for action.
·
Our
goal is to end the war and create lasting security, not fireworks in relations
with America.
·
We
also have no trust in the other side.
·
The
US naval blockade as a war crime
·
Iran
would turn it into another defeat for its enemies.
·
With
national cohesion, diplomacy of power, and military strength under the command
of the leader, we will make the enemy lose hope in the surrender of the Iranian
people.
Trump
warns Netanyahu he could be left ‘alone against Iran.' - Channel 12
US President Trump told Israel’s Channel 12 News he
warned Prime Minister Netanyahu that if Israeli attacks turn into a full-scale
war, he could find himself alone with the Iranians: "I told Bibi, 'You
better be very careful with what you do, because you might soon be left alone
against Iran.'"
Israel
had planned a ‘dramatic' Iran attack before Trump called it off—N12
Israel had approved plans for a "dramatic attack"
against Iran before Trump called it off, Israel's Channel 12 reported on
Monday.
Five
Middle East states urged Trump to rein in Israeli strikes—Axios.
Five countries from the Middle East involved in the
mediation efforts between the United States and Iran asked Trump to pressure
Netanyahu to stop the attacks and move forward with an agreement, Axios
reported, citing an interview with the US president: "They, the Israelis,
gave us an update at a very late stage. They were already on their way to Iran.
I managed to reduce the scope of the attack."
Netanyahu
told Trump inaction would embolden Iran and hurt a possible deal—Axios.
Israeli PM Netanyahu argued in a phone call with Trump
that not responding to the Iranian attack would be bad for Israel, bad for the
US, and bad for the deal Trump was trying to negotiate. He argued that inaction
would send the message that Iran has the upper hand and can deter the US and
Israel from taking military action, the report said.
PM Netanyahu agreed to halt a larger operation
against Iran this afternoon after a direct intervention by US President Donald
Trump, Channel 12 reports, citing unnamed Israeli officials. Israel had been
preparing a major strike for late afternoon, which had been approved by
Netanyahu, but the premier ultimately blocked it after Trump urged him to
de-escalate. The report describes several communications between Jerusalem and
Washington that led up to this afternoon’s call.
Following Israel’s retaliatory strikes against
Hezbollah targets in Beirut yesterday afternoon, Washington conveyed a message
to Israel that it was unhappy about the strikes, to which Israel responded that
they were measured strikes that could not be avoided given Hezbollah’s attacks
on northern Israel.
After
Iran’s ballistic missile attacks against Israel in support of Hezbollah last
night, Netanyahu held a tense phone call with Trump, during which the president urged him against
escalation, telling him not to respond to the attacks, with Netanyahu
reportedly replying, "The Iranians violated our sovereignty. We have to
draw a red line.” Trump replied that Washington would not grant Israel “a green
light,” while adding that Netanyahu has his “own calculations,” according to
the network.
Some senior Israeli officials tell Channel 12 that
Trump came away from the conversation believing Israel would not strike, while
others claimed that Trump understood from Netanyahu’s comments that Israel
intended to proceed.
During a second conversation with Trump today,
Netanyahu justified the choice to strike Tehran, telling the president that
Israel “knew that a strike on Iran would not lead to a [full-blown] war,”
according to the report. It isn’t clear from the report how Netanyahu made that
argument while also having planned the larger attack on Iran that was called
off.
Following Israel’s strikes against Iran overnight
and again this morning, and Iran’s two rounds of strikes in return, Tehran
approached the Trump administration and said it was prepared for a ceasefire,
the network says.
Around the same time, intense discussions were
underway at the Kirya IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv regarding a major operation
Israel hoped to carry out later that afternoon, the report continues.
Around 4:30 p.m., Netanyahu reportedly approved the
operation shortly before Trump called him and instructed him to halt any
further attacks so Washington could pursue a deal with Iran.
Some Israeli officials portray the leaders’
conversation to Channel 12 as one characterized by mutual understanding, while
other sources say it was effectively a directive from the president. In any
case, Netanyahu apparently agreed to halt the fire and ordered an end to the
operation, leading to “considerable confusion” within the military high
command, as aircraft were already prepared for takeoff. The Prime Minister’s
Office does not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.
'Why
should we pick a fight with him? ’Netanyahu is said to have resisted far-right
pressure to defy Trump on Iran strikes. '—TOI.
Discussions held today exposed disagreements
between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and far-right security cabinet
ministers over how Israel should respond to US President Donald Trump’s demand
that Israel halt its strikes in Iran and over whether it should prioritize
confronting Iran directly or intensifying pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The exchanges happened during a series of limited
security consultations between Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and
senior security officials at the Kirya headquarters on June 8.
Netanyahu reportedly defended coordination with
Washington, arguing that Trump remains aligned with Israel’s broader objectives
regarding Iran: “We are on the same page as Trump. He is not releasing Iran’s
frozen funds; he is determined to secure the nuclear material, and he is
maintaining the pressure. Why should we pick a fight with him?”
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir
reportedly argued that Israel should resist US pressure, saying, “We need to
stand our ground against Trump. We need to fight tooth and nail and make it
clear that we have red lines.”
Netanyahu reportedly responded by suggesting Ben
Gvir’s position was influenced by the approaching election campaign, a charge
the minister rejected.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reportedly argued
that Israel should continue focusing its military response on Hezbollah targets
in Beirut, seeming to suggest this would both weaken Hezbollah and reinforce
Israel’s rejection of Iranian demands that Lebanon be included in any
ceasefire.
“The right course of action is to stick with the
Beirut model… Strike hard in Beirut. That will cause Hezbollah to beg for it to
stop, and it could help further separate the [Iranian and Lebanese] fronts…
Action in Iran carries diplomatic costs and is complicated. We can flip the
equation. We should take advantage of the separation of the fronts and turn the
tables,” Smotrich reportedly said.
The report also says that after Trump urged him
against further attacks on Iran this afternoon, Netanyahu told senior security
officials that Israel will strike Hezbollah targets in Beirut if the terror
group attacks northern Israeli communities, even at the risk of triggering
another round of confrontation with Iran, the report adds. Katz openly stated
as much earlier today.
Iran
official says US changes to draft memo unacceptable—Al Jazeera.
The Trump administration has made unacceptable
changes to the draft memorandum with Iran, Al Jazeera reported, citing an
Iranian official. “Without the release
of frozen assets and the lifting of sanctions, no deal is possible,” the
official was quoted as saying.
Broader
Regional and Global Impacts
The 40-day Iran war has strained alliances and
economies. Gulf States face security threats and oil market instability.
Hezbollah's involvement has prolonged instability in Lebanon, while proxy
dynamics involving the Houthis continue to threaten Red Sea shipping.
Humanitarian costs are mounting, with damage to civilian infrastructure,
cultural sites, and essential services in Iran and Lebanon. Internationally,
the conflict has tested diplomatic relations, with China and others calling for
de-escalation. Oil prices hovered near $95 per barrel amid supply concerns,
contributing to inflationary pressures worldwide.
The recent missile exchanges between Iran and
Israel underscore the precarious nature of the April ceasefire and the immense
challenges facing peace negotiations. While President Trump's administration
continues to push for a comprehensive deal addressing nuclear issues,
sanctions, and regional security, mutual distrust and domestic political
pressures on all sides hinder progress. Iran's insistence on concessions and
Israel's security imperatives create a narrow path for diplomacy.
Conclusions
The worst of the Iran war may be over, including the
recent skirmish between Iran and Israel. Trump will not allow an all-out Iran
war during the FIFA World Cup. He will ensure no major escalation. But after
the World Cup event in the US, Trump may also launch a major surgical strike on
Iran around September-October (after the expected 60-day ceasefire and ahead of
the November US midterm election) to retrieve the so-called "nuclear dust”
(HEUs) and declare victory (if the negotiation fails). Trump is looking for a face-saving
exit from his Iran war mess before the midterm US election. Trump is not happy
with the US mainstream media—still ‘refusing’ to acknowledge the ‘massive US
military victory’ over Iran, with the destruction of the navy, military, and
air force, with only around 20-25% of missiles left. Thus, Trump has to prove
his Korean War victory for the mainstream US media by removing the ‘nuclear
dust’ (HEUs) either through negotiations or through a military/surgical action.
Bottom
line
Trump may sign an MOU with Iran within the next few
days and extend the ceasefire by 60 days, paving the way for a potential
nuclear and SOH deal. Although the MOU may be signed, it may not result in an
immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (SOH). Thus, oil may stay elevated
in the coming days.
Technical
outlook: Oil
Looking
ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically oil ($91.75) now has to sustain over 90.00 for a further recovery
to 94.00/97.00-107.00/118.00 in the coming days. On the flip side, sustaining
below 89.50, oil may further fall to 87.00/80.00-75.00/71.00 in the coming
days.
