Stocks and gold surged on the US-Iran provisional MOU; oil slumped

 

·       The MOU is slated to be signed on June 19, but there are still many ambiguities between the US and Iranian narratives.

·       Overall, Trump blinks first and, as always, chickens out in his war of attrition with Iran as Trump seeks to unblock the SOH before the G7 summit in France.

·       Israel may not be happy with Trump for the present version of the US-Iran MOU.

As highly expected, after much back & forth, on the early Asian session market opening Monday, June 15, US President Trump dramatically posted about the ‘finalization’ of his peace deal MOU with Iran. Late on US June 14, Trump’s birthday, Trump announced the much-awaited MOU, which is basically an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) fully after the removal of the month-long double blockade. Trump basically blinks first and reopens the SOH in an effort to bring oil down before he leaves for France to face the G7, India, and other global leaders. The SOH was fully opened before the Iran war and closed during Trump’s needless ‘Iran excursion/fun’ (war) with Iran from early March, causing a surge in oil & gas and pushing both sides of the Atlantic and Pacific into synchronized global stagflation-like scenarios.

Trump Truthed:

·       The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP

·       This great deal will bring peace and security to the whole region. Many presidents have tried to make peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The leaders of the region have, for the first time, found a president who can help them achieve real peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the deal on Friday, for purposes of my removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the region and the world! President DONALD J. TRUMP

What we already know about the US-Iran MOU—yet to be officially published

The potential US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), often called the "Islamabad MOU" due to Pakistani mediation, is reportedly scheduled to be signed on June 19, 2026, in Switzerland (likely Geneva). As of June 15, 2026, the deal has been described as finalized in text by both US & Iranian officials and announced by mediators, but it remains a framework agreement/MOU, rather than a full permanent treaty. It aims to formalize a ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and kick off 60 days of further negotiations on nuclear issues, sanctions, and other matters. Details have varied between US and Iranian public statements, reflecting an ongoing saga (differences).

Key Reported Elements of the MOU (from Various Drafts and Statements)

There are differing versions circulating (US vs. Iranian drafts), with some discrepancies on implementation, control of the Strait, nuclear commitments, and sequencing of relief. Common points include:

·       Immediate/Permanent Ceasefire: End to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, but the US may again launch the war if there is no nuclear deal after 60 days of negotiations.

·       Strait of Hormuz: Reopening to commercial traffic by Iran on June 19 (after de-mining) and lifting of the US naval blockade (~30 days in some Iranian narratives). The US side emphasizes "open with no tolls" and unrestricted shipping. Iranian statements (FM Araghchi) describe Iranian/Omani management/sovereignty with possible "service fees" (not called tolls) for civilian vessels and separate rules for military ones—this is a point of tension with US positions.

·       Economic/Sanctions Relief: Release of Iranian frozen assets (~$24-25 billion reported), suspension of sanctions on oil/petroleum exports, waivers, and potential reconstruction support. Some Iranian drafts tie this to performance or partial upfront release; US descriptions stress compliance-based and no upfront cash without verification.

·       Nuclear Issues: Iran reaffirms NPT commitments (no nuclear weapons). Details on highly enriched uranium ("nuclear dust"), enrichment limits, inspections, and dismantling are largely deferred to the 60-day talks. The US side has pushed for strong verification, removal/destruction of material, and indefinite barriers.

·       Miscellaneous: US noninterference in Iranian internal affairs; possible withdrawal/repositioning of US forces in the Gulf/Middle East; supervisory mechanisms; eventual UNSC approval for a final deal. The missile program and support for proxies are reportedly off the table for final talks in some Iranian versions.

The MOU is framed as a short-term bridge to a more comprehensive agreement. Mediators include Pakistan (PM Shehbaz Sharif announced the deal) and Qatar.

Previously, on the weekend (late Friday-early Sunday):

At least three different drafts of a US-Iran interim agreement have surfaced as Trump presses to sign on Sunday. All drafts envisage reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctioning relief for Iran, and restarting nuclear negotiations, but they diverge on key details—chiefly, how much frozen Iranian assets would be released and when. A draft reportedly seen by Bloomberg proposes that the US and regional partners establish a minimum $300 billion reconstruction and economic development package for Iran and defer nuclear issues to subsequent talks. Reuters, citing an anonymous Iranian official, reported a draft would allow the US to unfreeze $25 billion; the Bloomberg copy reviewed did not include that clause. The semi-official Mehr News Agency said final negotiations could only begin after half of the frozen funds are released, oil sanctions are suspended, and the maritime blockade is lifted.

A reported 14-point draft MOU, per Argus Media and Mehr, included:

·       Permanent, immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon

·       US pledge of non‑interference and respect for Iranian sovereignty

·       Full lifting of the US maritime blockade within 30 days

·       US withdrawal of forces from around Iran

·       Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements

·       Suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemicals, and derivatives, and restoration of Iran’s access to its financial resources

·       The US and allies to propose an Iran reconstruction plan worth at least $300 billion.

·       A 60‑day negotiation period to seek a final nuclear agreement and full removal of primary and secondary US sanctions and relevant UNSC and IAEA board measures

·       Unfreezing $24 billion of Iranian funds during the 60‑day talks, with half to be released before negotiations begin

·       America's commitment to non-interference in Iran's internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

·       The need for the United States and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion.

·       Reiterating Iran's commitment in the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons.

·       During the negotiations, the United States has committed not to increase its forces in the region and will not impose new sanctions.

·       Release $24 billion in blocked Iranian funds during the 60 days of final negotiations. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the negotiations begin.

·       Establishing a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.

·       The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution.

·       The final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran's frozen funds, the suspension of Iran's oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade.

·       The final agreement will be made solely on the fate of enriched materials and enrichment and the lifting of sanctions.

·       Discussions about Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda. and the Iranian economic reconstruction program.

·       As the Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced, this text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran.

US Wishlist/Key Demands for the Iran MOU (as articulated by President Trump, White House officials, and US narratives around the potential June 19, 2026, signing):

The US views the MOU primarily as a short-term framework/bridge (often described as a 60-day ceasefire extension) to de-escalate the immediate conflict, reopen key waterways, and set the stage for deeper negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions. It emphasizes performance-based compliance, strong verification, and US leverage rather than upfront concessions. Trump has repeatedly framed it as achieving core US objectives while avoiding the perceived weaknesses of the JCPOA.

·       Strait of Hormuz and Maritime Freedom

o Immediate, unrestricted reopening for commercial shipping in both directions, with no Iranian tolls, fees, or harassment.

o Lifting of the US naval blockade (phased or post-signing).

o Iran must remove all mines ("terminated") within ~30 days and return to pre-war shipping volumes.

o The US maintains the ability to monitor/enforce (warships in the area). This was a frequent Trump red line and condition for ceasefire extensions.

·       Nuclear Program

o Iran commits to never acquiring a nuclear weapon (explicit, indefinite commitment).

o   Handling/destruction of highly enriched uranium (HEU, often called "nuclear dust" by Trump)—unearthed, removed, and destroyed by the US (with IAEA and possible Iranian coordination); emphasis on US technical capability for this.

o Limits on enrichment capabilities, dismantlement, or severe restrictions on the nuclear program (details largely deferred to the 60-day talks, but with strong upfront commitments and verification).

o Robust inspections, access to sites (including hidden ones), and permanent barriers to weaponization.

·       Sanctions Relief and Economics

o   No upfront cash or major releases of frozen assets (no immediate billions; "No money will be exchanged until further notice").

o Sanctions relief and waivers (on oil exports) are performance-based and temporary during the 60 days, tied to verifiable compliance.

potential longer-term relief only after nuclear and other commitments are met in follow-on talks.

·       Ceasefire and Regional Issues

o Permanent or extended ceasefire on all fronts (including Lebanon).

o Limits on Iranian support for proxies/terror groups (mentioned in some US narratives as part of broader goals, though sometimes deferred).

o US non-interference paired with Iranian behavioral changes.

·       Verification, Enforcement, and Other

o Strong monitoring and enforcement mechanisms.

o US ability to verify compliance (on nuclear sites and Hormuz).

o Contrast with past deals: More leverage for the US, no "weak" concessions.

·       Context from Narrative

Trump has described the deal as close to the "entire wishlist" in some contexts but has pushed amendments for clearer timelines, nuclear sequencing, and Hormuz control when drafts didn't meet standards.

o White House officials highlight it as meeting Trump's objectives: reopening the Strait, nuclear dismantlement elements, and conditional economic relief.

o The Iranian side has called US proposals an "American wishlist," reflecting the gap in perceptions (on upfront relief, Strait sovereignty, and nuclear scope).

The MOU is not a final comprehensive treaty but a stepping stone. Sticking points have included sequencing (nuclear actions vs. relief), exact Hormuz language, and enforcement. Information evolves quickly — official texts or post-signing details (if signed on June 19) will clarify the outcome.

On early Monday, June 15, Pakistani PM Sharif tweeted before Trump’s Truth, confirming the US-Iran MOU:

Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June, in Switzerland.

We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of the State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Türkiye for their immense contributions in this regard.

With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Gharibabadi, tweeted that a deal has been reached to end the US-Israeli war with the Islamic Republic: The immediate and permanent end of the war and all military operations on various fronts, including #Lebanon, will be announced starting tonight. The end of the US naval blockade against Iran will begin tonight.

He tells Iranian state TV:

·       The deal includes a ceasefire in the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group.

·       Negotiations for a final deal will be held for 60 days.

·       Tehran will take its own measures in case of breaches from the other side.

·       When negotiations begin within 60 days to reach a final agreement, if such a final agreement is ultimately achieved, the key issue for us will naturally be the implementation of its provisions.

The post from Iran does not reference the Strait of Hormuz. Israel was not included in the talks over the agreement, whose reported terms have caused profound concern among Israeli officials. The deal reportedly fails to achieve any of the goals of the war that were set out by the US and Israel, including eliminating Iran’s nuclear weapons program, depleting its ballistic missile stockpile, ending its support for terror proxies, and creating the conditions for the fall of the regime.

Iran said final talks start only after assets are unfrozen.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said Tehran's commitments under the newly announced understanding with the United States will take effect from Friday. Speaking after confirmation of the agreement, Gharibabadi said negotiations on a final deal would continue for 60 days and would focus primarily on the lifting of sanctions. He added that Iran would enter the next phase of negotiations only after the unfreezing of Iranian assets, the end of the US-led blockade, and the formal end of the war.

Iran’s military claims ‘victory’ as it ‘humiliated’ the US and Israel.

Iran’s military says it “humiliated” the United States and Israel in a statement issued after an agreement to end the US-Israeli war with the Islamic Republic was immediately announced: Iranian forces have, through the imposition of their divine and iron will upon the humiliated American and Zionist enemies, demonstrated with strength that the enemy has no path other than accepting defeat and surrender.

Israel is not amused with the present form of the US-Iran MOU (w/o any resolution of the nuclear dust).

The MOU was also hung in suspense after Israel attacked Lebanon/Beirut and a potential retaliation by Iran, which was averted at the last moment after Trump reportedly intervened and gave some concessions to Iran for the MOU. Israeli PM Netanyahu (BB) is reportedly not very happy with the US-Iran MOU and seeks an urgent meeting with Trump post-G7 meeting next week.

Iran held off Israeli retaliation after a last-minute MoU change—IRGC outlet Tansim.

Iran secured changes to provisions related to the administration of the Strait of Hormuz (SOH) and added guarantees for Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity during the final days and hours of negotiations over a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the US. According to the source, issues related to the management of the strategic waterway were among the final elements revised in the text after proposals from Tehran led to changes in the draft agreement. The source also said that language “guaranteeing Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” was added to the memorandum in the final hours of negotiations. Tasnim reported that the inclusion of the Lebanon clause played a significant role in Iran’s decision not to carry out what it described as a planned military response to an Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh. The source said Tehran viewed the provision as a concession benefiting Lebanon and one that helped avert further escalation.

Trump calls Netanyahu ‘very difficult guy,’ says attacks on Iran could resume if nuclear deal is not reached—NYT/TOI.

US President Donald Trump tells the NYT that if Iran fails to reach a final nuclear accord with the United States, he will restart military attacks on Tehran or make the United States “the guardian of the Middle East” in return for 20% of the region’s revenues. Trump tells the NYT in an interview that the agreement he reached with Iran would ultimately ensure that the Strait of Hormuz is “permanently toll-free.” He also calls Israeli PM Netanyahu a “very difficult guy” and claims the premier should be grateful. Israel was not involved in the negotiations over the just-announced US-Iran deal, and its terms have sparked profound concern among Israeli officials: He’s a very difficult guy—and to be honest with you, he should be very thankful to us for doing this—because if Iran had a nuclear weapon, Israel wouldn’t be around for two hours.

Trump posted on his Truth on Saturday, June 13:

This morning’s attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a peace deal with Iran. Israel has the right to defend itself against threats, but the attack it was responding to was very small and meaningless; nobody was hurt, injured, or killed, and it should not disrupt this important process. We are very close to a deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down. There should be no more attacks by Israel anywhere in Lebanon, but there should also be no more attacks by any other party, including Hezbollah, against Israel. This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace—let's not blow it! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Israeli PM BB may be under pressure ahead of the Sep-Oct election:

The Democratic Party chief, Golan, says the US deal with Iran is terrible for Israel: Tremendous military achievements won through the courage of our pilots and the blood of our fighters were erased while Netanyahu stood aside—weak, ill, isolated, and lacking influence—but it’s the culmination of many years of failure with the prime minister, the man who promised "total victory," ending his tenure with Israel’s enemies stronger, Israel weaker, and the deterrence built with the blood of our fighters eroding before our eyes.

Israel may resist US pressure over Lebanon pullback—Ynet

Senior Israeli officials said Israel may have to confront US pressure if Washington demands Israeli withdrawals or limits on military operations in Lebanon following an agreement with Iran, Ynet reported on Monday.

·       Right now, the prime minister is standing firm and succeeding in pushing back such Iranian demands.

·       The Americans understood that Israel viewed the issue as a red line.

·       The view inside Israel’s Security Cabinet was that Israel would “stand firm” on Lebanon, even at the cost of a dispute with Washington.

· NETANYAHU INFORMED TRUMP THAT ISRAEL IS NOT BOUND BY THE LEBANON CLAUSE IN THE AGREEMENT.

·       THE ISRAELI ARMY WILL CONTINUE ITS DEPLOYMENT AT THE SITES IT IS SPREAD ACROSS INSIDE LEBANON.

US rejects Iranian claims on frozen funds under deal – Axios.

A senior US official rejected Iranian claims that Tehran would receive billions of dollars in frozen funds before negotiations on a final agreement begin, calling the characterization a "spin." Speaking to Axios, the official denied reports that Iran would gain unconditional access to $12 billion in blocked assets before the start of the 60-day negotiating period: This is completely not true—this is a pay-for-performance deal, and no frozen funds will be released without the Iranians implementing their commitments.

Iranian officials have said final negotiations will begin only after key commitments are implemented, including the release of some (at least 50% of $24B) frozen assets (funds) and the lifting of the US maritime blockade.

Summary of Trump's comments in his latest WSJ interview (Sunday, June 14, 2026):

In the interview with The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), conducted amid announcements of a reached interim peace deal/MOU with Iran (set for signing on Friday, June 19/20), President Trump expressed optimism about the agreement while addressing key sticking points. Here are the main points:

·       On the Deal and Ceasefire

o Confirmed that the U.S. and Iran have reached an interim peace deal to stop fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift the U.S. naval blockade.

o Emphasized the deal includes immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.

 Noted the blockade had been effective ("more powerful than the hits") but is now being lifted as part of the agreement.

·       On the Nuclear Program

 The deal includes Iran’s agreement not to obtain nuclear weapons.

 Downplayed urgency on highly enriched uranium ("nuclear dust"): “We’ll get the nuclear dust later on when we’re ready to go in and do it. I’d say over the next month or two, there’s no rush.” He called it “harmless” for now.

 Mentioned strong inspections on Iran but did not detail mechanisms.

o Framed follow-on talks (likely 60 days) as the place for deeper nuclear and sanctions issues.

·       On Sanctions and Economics

Iran would not receive cash up front in the deal.

o Sanctions relief would be conditional: “We’ll see how they behave.”

·       On Regime Change and Iranian Leadership

o Clarified that regime change was never his goal: “As far as regime change, I never cared about regime change.”

o   Praised the current Iranian leadership as the “most rational group yet” that the U.S. has dealt with (referring to it as the third group).

·       On Israel/Netanyahu and Regional Dynamics

o Criticized recent Israeli actions in Lebanon: “Bibi shouldn’t have done that. I didn’t like it at all.” He viewed them as risking derailing the deal.

o Claimed Netanyahu is ultimately “OK with it” because “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon under any circumstance.”

 Expressed frustration with the cycle of retaliation in the Middle East.

Trump’s Overall Tone

Trump portrayed the deal as a pragmatic breakthrough that ends immediate conflict and sets up longer-term negotiations, while maintaining U.S. leverage. He highlighted improved U.S.-Iran relations compared to prior administrations and downplayed some risks (timing on nuclear material) to focus on de-escalation and economic benefits (reopening shipping). This interview aligns with his public Truth Social posts and earlier statements emphasizing a “great deal” or no deal, performance-based elements, and Hormuz reopening without Iranian interference. Details continue to evolve ahead of the signing.

Trump posted on his Truth Social and compared his present deal/MOU with Obama’s JCPOA in 2015.

Barack Hussein Obama’s Deal with Iran, the JCPOA, was an easy, beautiful, smooth road to a Nuclear Weapon, which Iran would have had six years ago and would have used long before now. My Agreement with Iran is the exact opposite: A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS! In fact, they no longer want a Nuclear Weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement. The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.

Our relationship with Iran is a much different and better one than previous Administrations have had. Unlike Obama’s Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in payments to them, including 1.7 Billion Dollars in green, cold cash, no money will exchange hands.

At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and down-blend and destroy it, whether in Iran or the United States.

We look forward to working with Iran and the entire Middle East long into the future. Hopefully, this process will all work out quickly, easily, and smoothly. If it doesn’t, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again! Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Conclusions

After many back-and-forths for weeks, the US-Iran deal MOU might be a reality. But Trump blinks first and, as usual, always chickens out after issuing repeated bellicose threats. Looking ahead, there may be various ambiguities/disputes over the MOU, including:

·       Absolute control over the SOH—whether it’s shared by Iran and Oman (with or without any tolls/service fees) or the US

·       Payment of at least 50% (~$12B) of Iranian frozen funds by the US to Iran even before starting the 60-day nuclear deal negotiations

·       Iran may not agree to sign the MOU on June 19/20 if the US does not agree to transfer at least 50% of frozen funds (~$24B) to Iran

·       Israel may not be on board in line with the US-Iran MOU, as it may be politically difficult for Netanyahu to accept a ‘stronger/nuclear’ Iran before the Sep-Oct general election

·       If Iran does not agree to destroy so-called nuclear dust by/under US supervision/control, Trump may attack Kharg Island and Isfahan/Natanz nuclear facilities after 60-days (early September) to control Iran’s oil and HEUs to announce a unilateral victory ahead of the Nov. '26 midterm election.

Although another all-out Iran war may already be over, the SOH double blockade is not—at least till mid-July (30-days from the MOU signing) for complete de-mining. Overall, apart from the nuclear issue, SOH control may be another issue that may hamper permanent peace between the US/Israel and Iran. Trump’s body language may be showing that he is very happy with the present form of the Iran MOU, but in reality, Iran may not agree to US control over the SOH and any transfer of the ‘nuclear dust’ (HEUs) out of the country, even to a trusted ally like China.

Both the Trump/US and Iran are looking for a face-saving exit from this war of attrition. For Trump, the domestic political compulsion may be an issue ahead of the midterm election (Nov '26) amid his plunging approval rate. For Iran, it’s facing economic repression and thus may not afford another all-out war with the US. For Israel’s PM Netanyahu (BB), his warmongering stance with Iran/Hezbollah proxies may help him politically in the forthcoming general election (Sep-Oct '26). But Trump may have the ultimate control over BB (Netanyahu), despite any story about Epstein’s file with Mossad.

The worst of the Iran war may be over, including the recent skirmishes between Iran and Israel/the US. Trump will not allow an all-out Iran war during the FIFA World Cup. He will ensure no major escalation. But after the World Cup event in the US, Trump may also launch a major surgical strike on Iran around September-October (after the expected 60-day ceasefire and ahead of the November US midterm election) to retrieve the so-called ‘nuclear dust” (HEUs) and declare victory (if the negotiation fails). Trump may also attempt to occupy Iran’s oil depot at Kharg Island as the ‘end game.'

Trump is looking for a face-saving exit from his Iran war mess before the midterm US election. Trump is not happy with the US mainstream media—still ‘refusing’ to acknowledge the ‘massive US military victory’ over Iran, with the destruction of the navy, military, and air force, with only around 20-25% of missiles left. Thus, Trump has to prove his Iran war victory for the mainstream US media by removing the ‘nuclear dust’ (HEUs) either through negotiations or through a military/surgical action.

Bottom line ─ summary

Trump may sign an MOU with Iran within the next few days and extend the ceasefire by 60 days, paving the way for a potential nuclear and SOH deal. Although the MOU may be signed, it may not result in an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (SOH). Thus, oil may stay elevated in the coming days, keeping pressure on stocks, bonds, and gold. All focus now on Trump’s morning moods, truths, and non-stop media bytes. Trump’s chaotic policies and uncertainties may eventually bring down Wall Street under correction territory, i.e., 10% down from the recent lifetime high or even 20% into bear territory against the present 5% swing low/time correction.

Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500, Gold and Oil

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 51120) now has to sustain over 51500-51700 for a further rally to 52400*-52700 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 51300/51000 it may fall to 50500/50200-50000/49750*-49500/48800 and further to 48500/48000-47600/46600 and 46000/45700*-45200*/45000 and 43800/43000-42000/39000-36800 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (30500) now has to sustain over 30700-900* for a further rally to 31000/31200-31500*/32000 and even 32400/32500 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 30600/30300-30000/29500-29100/28300*-28100/27800, it may fall to 27400-27000 and 26600/26300-26000/25600, NQ-100 may again fall to 24600/24400-24000/23900, and further to 23600/23300-22800/22400 and 21900-21000 in the coming days.

Looking at the chart, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 7525) now has to sustain over 7700 for a further rally to 8000-8300 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 7675/7650-7550/7500-7300/7200 and 7100-6900, it may fall to 6835/6700 and further 6600-6500/6450 and 6350/6300-6250/6180 and 5860-4800 in the coming days.

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Gold ($4330) now has to sustain over 4375 for a further rally to 4400/4450-4500/4585 and 4725-4825; otherwise, sustaining below 4360/4300-4230/4190, Gold may again fall to 4150/4090-4050/4000* and further 3970/3895-3715/3600 and 3540/3340-3080/2770 and 2660-2370 in the coming days.

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically oil ($80.00) now has to sustain over 76.00-77.00 for a recovery to 83.00-85.00 and 90.00-91.00-92.00-93.00 and 94.00-97.00-107.00-118.00 in the coming days. On the flip side, sustaining oil below 76.00 may further fall to 75.00/71.00, 60.00/55.00 in the coming days.