Oil heading for $100 amid escalated Iran war tensions; will Trump blink now?

 


·       Oil is now under multiple blockades in the SOH and Red Sea amid escalating US-Iran war tensions across the Middle East.

·       Ahead of the US midterm election in Nov '26 and Israel's general election in Oct '26, both Trump and Netanyahu are under domestic political compulsions not to allow Iran to emerge stronger.

·       Elevated oil around $100 may affect Trump’s already weak political election prospects further, unless there is another ‘assassination attempt’ on him!

Trump’s Iran war ‘fun’ has caused a serious phase of his political prospects in the forthcoming Nov. '26 US midterm election, which the ruling incumbent Republican party is set to lose badly. The Iran war may have entered the most devastating tit-for-tat combat amid the 10th consecutive night of heavy US airstrikes and Iran’s response in the form of asymmetrical warfare. Iran’s barrage of hypersonic missiles and drones across various US military bases in the GCC has caused severe US casualties and even the ‘rare’ death of several US Marines. As a punishment to kill US soldiers, Trump is adamant about teaching Iran a ‘tough’ lesson in this marathon war of attrition to control the Strait of Hormuz (SOH)—the strategic choke point of the global energy (oil & gas) and also fertilizers.

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Disclaimer:

• I have no position or plan to have any position in the above-mentioned financial instruments/assets within the next 72 hours.

• I am an NSE-certified Level-2 market professional (Financial Analyst—Fundamental + Technical) and not a SEBI/SEC-registered investment advisor. The article is purely educational and not a proxy for any trading/investment signal/advice.

• Please always consult with your personal financial advisor and do your own due diligence before any investment/trading in the capital market.

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Ashish Ghosh is a NCFM certified research analyst for the global and Indian financial markets. With more than 15 years of experience in the capital market, Ashish has been published in high-profile online media regularly. He holds a B.Sc. in Math along with NCFM certification for Technical and Fundamental analysis. Presently, he is working with iForex as a financial analyst/content writer since 2017, analyzing mainly the global and Indian markets. You can reach him for professional levels trading ideas or signals through Gmail/telegram ID: ashishghoshjpg/asisjpg

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