Trump’s work visa and tariff policies may cause US stagflation
·
Trump’s anti-immigration policy may cause some
labor shortage and wage inflation apart from tariff inflation, higher
unemployment, and lower GDP growth
·
The Indian economy also may be affected seriously,
if the Trump administration imposes tariffs on all types of remote service
including Techs
·
India’s current account deficit will increase along
with USDINR in that scenario, which may cause higher unemployment, higher
imported inflation and lower growth
·
The Trump admin will use Work visa Fees and
potential tariffs on remote Indian services to get a favorable trade deal with
India
On September 19, 2025, U.S. President Trump signed
a presidential proclamation imposing a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa
applications, effective September 21, 2025. Initially described by US Commerce
Secretary Lutnick as an "annual" fee in White House announcements,
clarifications from USCIS and Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed it as
a one-time payment per new petition, applying only to future applicants in the
February 2026 lottery (not the 2025 lottery, renewals, or current visa
holders). The policy aims to curb perceived overuse of the program by ensuring
sponsors bring in only "highly skilled" workers not replaceable by
Americans, while funding tax cuts and debt reduction. Commerce Secretary Howard
Lutnick emphasized: "No more will big tech companies train foreign
workers... Train Americans”
On September 19, 2025, during a White House Oval
Office signing ceremony and subsequent press interactions, U.S. Commerce
Secretary Lutnick, a known policy hawk, stood beside President Trump as he
signed the proclamation imposing a $100K annual fee on new H-1B visa petitions.
Lutnick, a key architect of the policy, defended the measure as a tool to end
"abuse" of the program by prioritizing elite talent and protecting
American workers. His remarks emphasized the fee's deterrent effect on
low-value hires while generating revenue for the U.S. Treasury. Below is a
compilation of his key statements, drawn from the event and immediate follow-ups,
focusing on the $100K recurring annual fees.
Core
Rationale: Ending "Training" of Foreign Workers
Lutnick repeatedly framed the fee as economically
unviable for routine or entry-level roles, forcing companies to invest in U.S.
talent instead. In the Oval Office alongside Trump, he stated: “The whole idea is no more with these big
tech companies or other big companies training foreign workers. They have to
pay the government $100,000, and then they have to pay the employee.”
Lutnick
elaborated on a post-signing call with reporters:
“So no longer will you put trainees on an H-1B
visa. That’s just not economic anymore. If you’re going to train people, you’re
going to train Americans... If you have a very sophisticated engineer and you
want to bring them in...”
This ties into the administration's narrative of
curbing wage suppression, where H-1B "entry-level" positions offer a
36% discount compared to U.S. hires.
Confirmation
of Industry Buy-In
Lutnick assured skeptics that major corporations
were consulted and supportive, positioning the fee as a "clear and
swift" process. At the signing event, he said: “A hundred thousand dollars a year for H-1B
visas and all of the big companies are on board. We’ve spoken to them.” During the Friday press briefing, he
reinforced: “All the big companies” had
been briefed on the new fee. On the
reporter call, he added that companies were “very happy” about the fee,
“because they would like a process that is known, that is clear and that is
swift.”
Emphasis on
"Value" and American Hiring
Lutnick stressed the fee's binary outcome: Retain
only indispensable talent or default to U.S. workers. From the Oval Office
briefing: “Either the person is very
valuable to the company and America, or they are going to depart and the
company is going to hire an American. And that’s the point of immigration. Hire
Americans and make sure the people coming in are the top, top people.” He
positioned it as filtering low-wage entrants:
“The revised program would filter out the ‘bottom quartile’ while
generating more than $100 billion for the US Treasury.” (Note: This revenue
projection includes the broader visa overhaul, with the H-1B fee alone
estimated at $8-10 billion annually.)
Context and
Clarifications Post-Announcement
Lutnick's initial description of the fee as
"annual" has sparked confusion over renewals and existing visas. A
White House official later clarified on September 20 that it's a one-time fee
for new applicants outside the U.S., not applying to current holders or
renewals (though policy on renewals is "under discussion"). Lutnick
had consulted companies on the $100,000 figure, per Politico.
These comments, delivered with Trump present,
underscore the administration's "America First" push, amid backlash
from tech firms (e.g., Microsoft's scramble to recall H-1B staff) and India
(71% of recipients affected). The fee, part of a 12-month restriction
(extendable), includes waivers for "national interest" hires and ties
into wage revisions. Legal challenges are brewing, but Lutnick's tone signals unyielding
enforcement.
Lutnick, a vocal proponent of the "America
First" overhaul, used the event to pitch the fee as a game-changer for
curbing "abuse" in the program—framed as displacing U.S. workers with
lower-paid foreign talent—while ensuring only "extraordinary" hires
cut. His remarks, delivered with Trump interjecting, emphasized economic
deterrence, industry buy-in, and revenue for tax/debt relief. Lutnick hammered
home that the $100,000 annual cost (initially described as such, though later
clarified as a one-time payment for new applicants) makes sponsoring
entry-level or trainee roles "non-economic," pushing companies to
upskill Americans instead. This aligns with the administration's data on H-1B
wage suppression (e.g., 36% discount for entry positions).
Core Pitch
During Q&A:
"Well, they're $100,000 per year. So the whole
idea is that these big tech companies or other big companies train foreign
workers. They have to pay the government $100,000. Then they have to pay the
employee. So it's just non-economic. If you're going to train somebody, you're
going to train one of the recent graduates from one of the great universities
across our land. Train Americans. Stop bringing in people to take our jobs.
That's the policy here."
In response
to a question on patron visas and renewals, Lutnick doubled down: "Renewals first times the company needs to
decide whether they want the person valuable enough to have a $100,000 a year
payment to the government or they should head home and they should go hire an
American. The whole idea is annual and it's for the total. It can be a total of
six years. So $100,000 a year-- So either the person is very valuable to the
company and America or they're going to depart and the company's going to hire
an American. And that's the point of immigration. Hire Americans and make sure
the people coming in are the top--top people. Stop the nonsense of letting
people just come into this country on these visas that were given away for
free."
These lines
echo Lutnick's Oval Office opener:
"A hundred thousand dollars a year for H-1B visas, and all of the big
companies are on board. We've spoken to them." He positioned it as a
binary: Pay up for irreplaceable expertise or default to domestic hiring,
filtering out the "bottom quartile" reliant on government aid.
The
transcript's "annual" emphasis sparked immediate chaos—Microsoft
emailed H-1B/H-4 staff to rush back by September 21, fearing re-entry denials. By September 20, White House Press Secretary
Karoline Leavitt clarified: It's a one-time fee for new applicants outside the
U.S., exempting current holders, renewals, and 2025 lottery participants.
Lutnick's comments "sowed confusion," per anonymous officials, but he
stood by the intent in a reporter call: "No longer will you put trainees
on an H-1B visa. That it's just not economic anymore."
This move has sparked immediate panic, with major
U.S. firms like Amazon, Microsoft, and JPMorgan advising H-1B holders abroad to
return before the deadline, leading to a surge in last-minute U.S. flights.
Legal challenges are expected, and India's Ministry of External Affairs called
it a "setback" for professionals and families. Nasscom (India's IT
trade body) highlighted the "abrupt" one-day rollout as disruptive to
ongoing projects.
Lutnick's Oval Office performance—blunt, salesy,
and unapologetic—mirrors his Cantor Fitzgerald roots, blending Wall Street
bravado with MAGA populism. It set the tone for a policy that's already
reshaping tech hiring, but the clarifications suggest the administration's walking
a tightrope on implementation.
White House
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt tweeted early Saturday:
“To be clear:
1.) This is NOT an annual fee. It’s a one-time fee
that applies only to the petition.
2.) Those who already hold H-1B visas and are
currently outside of the country will NOT be charged $100,000 to re-enter.
H-1B visa holders can leave and re-enter the
country to the same extent as they normally would; whatever ability they have
to do that is not impacted by yesterday’s proclamation.
3.) This applies only to new visas, not renewals,
and not current visa holders.
It will first apply in the upcoming lottery cycle.”
White House
Fact Sheet: Trump Suspends Entry of Certain H-1B Workers with $100,000 Fee
The White House released a fact sheet detailing
President Donald J. Trump's September 19 proclamation restricting H-1B visa
entries for certain nonimmigrant workers, mandating a $100,000 payment per
petition to combat perceived abuses that displace American jobs and pose
national security risks. This builds on the executive order signed Friday,
which also introduced a $1 million "Gold Card" visa for
high-net-worth immigrants, intensifying Trump's immigration overhaul amid
backlash over soaring U.S. grocery prices and strained U.S.-India trade ties.
The policy, effective immediately for new applications, targets the H-1B
program—used by U.S. firms to hire skilled foreign talent—by imposing financial
barriers unless exemptions are granted in the "national interest."
The
proclamation directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to limit approvals for
petitions from aliens outside the U.S. without payment, with the Departments of State and Homeland
Security verifying remittances and denying entry for non-compliance. Employers
must retain payment documentation, and joint guidance from Labor and Homeland
Security will outline verification, audits, and penalties. Additionally, it
orders rulemaking to revise prevailing wage levels and prioritize high-skilled,
high-paid H-1B applicants, aiming to curb "lower-paid foreign labor"
replacing Americans.
Protecting
American Jobs: The Administration's Rationale
The fact sheet frames the restrictions as essential
to safeguarding U.S. workers, citing a surge in H-1B usage displacing domestic
talent. Key statistics highlighted include:
·
The share of IT
workers on H-1B visas has risen from 32% in FY2003 to over 65% recently.
·
Unemployment
among recent computer science graduates is at 6.1% and computer engineering at
7.5%—double the rates for biology or art history majors.
·
Foreign STEM
workers in the U.S. more than doubled from 2000 to 2019, while overall STEM
employment grew only 44.5%.
Trump's
team alleges corporate abuse, pointing to specific examples:
·
One unnamed
company approved for 5,189 H-1B workers in FY2025 while laying off 16,000 U.S.
employees this year.
·
Another secured
1,698 approvals but announced 2,400 layoffs in Oregon in July.
·
A third reduced
its U.S. workforce by 27,000 since 2022, amid 25,075 H-1B approvals.
·
A fourth cut
1,000 American jobs in February despite 1,137 approvals.
Reports of U.S. IT workers training foreign
replacements under nondisclosure agreements are cited as evidence of
exploitation, with the policy described as creating "disincentives for
future American STEM careers," threatening national security. The $100,000
fee—potentially generating $8-10 billion annually—is positioned as a tool to
"stop undercutting wages" and enforce accountability.
Prioritizing
American Workers: Broader Trump Agenda
The sheet ties the proclamation to Trump's mandate,
emphasizing:
·
Negotiated trade
deals bringing manufacturing home and attracting investments.
·
Strategic
tariffs under Section 232 to protect supply chains and counter unfair
practices.
·
All employment
gains since Trump's return are going to American-born workers, unlike the prior
year under Biden, when gains favored foreign-born workers.
·
New guidance
barring illegal aliens from federal workforce development resources.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, during the
signing, reiterated that the fee deters training foreign workers over
Americans, stating, "If you're going to train somebody, train one of the
recent graduates from our great universities—stop bringing in people to take
our jobs." White House Staff Secretary Will Scharf added that it ensures
companies hire "very high-skilled workers... not replaceable by American
employees."
Implications
amid US-India Tensions
This policy amplifies challenges for Indian workers,
who hold 70-72% of H-1Bs (over 377,000 petitions in FY2024), particularly in
tech and consulting. NASSCOM estimates a 40% drop in approvals, potentially
slashing Indian IT exports to the U.S. by 15-20% ($50 billion+ annually) and
remittances ($100 billion+). It complicates Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA)
talks, where visa reciprocity is contentious, alongside 50% U.S. tariffs and
the Chabahar Port sanctions revocation—further straining ties after Trump's
recent Modi birthday wishes.
Tech firms like Infosys, TCS, and U.S. giants
(Amazon: 12,000+ approvals) face steep costs, likely accelerating offshoring to
India. Critics, including the American Immigration Council, decry it as a
"tax on innovation," projecting 0.5-1% GDP drag and talent shortages.
Legal challenges from the ACLU are imminent, arguing that Congress sets H-1B
fees for adjudication only.
Fact Sheet:
President Donald J. Trump Suspends the Entry of Certain Alien Nonimmigrant
Workers
The White
House-September 19, 2025
PROTECTING
AMERICAN JOBS
“Today, President Donald J. Trump signed a
Proclamation to restrict the entry into the United States of certain H-1B
aliens as nonimmigrant workers, requiring a $100,000 payment to accompany or
supplement H-1B petitions for new applications to curb abuses that displace
U.S. workers and undermine national security.
The Proclamation restricts entry for aliens as
nonimmigrants to perform services in specialty occupations in the H-1B program
unless their petition is accompanied by a $100,000 payment.
It directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to
restrict approvals for petitions from aliens that are currently outside the
United States that are not accompanied by payment, and allows case-by-case
exemptions if in the national interest.
The Proclamation requires employers to retain
documentation of payment remittance, with the Secretary of State verifying
payment during the petition process and the Departments of State and Homeland
Security denying entry for non-payment for the relevant aliens and taking other
relevant steps needed to implement the Proclamation.
It requires the Departments of Labor and Homeland
Security to issue joint guidance for verification, enforcement, audits, and
penalties.
The Proclamation directs the Secretary of Labor to
initiate rulemaking to revise the prevailing wage levels for the H-1B program
and directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to initiate rulemaking to
prioritize high-skilled, high-paid H-1B workers.
COMBATING
H-1B ABUSES
American workers are being replaced with lower-paid
foreign labor, creating an economic and national security threat to the nation.
The share
of IT workers with H-1B visas has risen from 32% in FY 2003 to over 65% in
recent years.
Unemployment among recent computer science
graduates has reached 6.1% and 7.5% for computer engineering graduates — more
than double the rates for biology or art history majors. The number of foreign
STEM workers in the United States has more than doubled between 2000 and 2019,
while overall STEM employment only increased 44.5% during that time.
·
American
companies are laying off their American technology workers and seemingly
replacing them with H-1B workers:
·
One company was
approved for 5,189 H-1B workers in FY 2025, while laying off roughly 16,000
U.S. employees this year.
·
Another company
was approved for 1,698 H-1B workers in FY 2025, yet announced it was laying off
2,400 U.S. workers in Oregon in July.
·
A third company
has reduced its U.S. workforce by 27,000 since 2022 while receiving 25,075 H-1B
approvals.
·
Yet another
company reportedly cut 1,000 American jobs in February despite receiving 1,137
H-1B approvals for FY 2025.
·
American IT
workers have even been reportedly forced to train their foreign replacements
under nondisclosure agreements.
·
The H-1B program
is creating disincentives for future American workers to choose STEM careers,
which threatens our national security.
·
President Trump
is imposing higher costs on companies seeking to use the H-1B program to
address the abuse of the program, stop the undercutting of wages, and protect
our national security.
PRIORITIZING
AMERICAN WORKERS
·
Voters gave
President Trump a resounding mandate to put American workers first, and he has
worked every day to deliver on that commitment.
·
President Trump
has aggressively and successfully negotiated new trade deals to bring
manufacturing jobs back home and attract new investments to the U.S.
·
President Trump
is using tariffs as a strategic tool to rebuild American manufacturing, secure
our supply chains, and protect U.S. national security.
·
President Trump
has implemented several Section 232 tariffs to protect manufacturing that has
been undermined by unfair trade practices and global excess capacity.
·
Since President
Trump returned to office, all employment gains have gone to American-born
workers—unlike last year during the same period under President Biden, when all
employment gains went to foreign-born workers.
·
The Trump
Administration issued new guidance to ensure illegal aliens are not allowed
access to federal workforce development resources and related grants,
protecting job training for American workers.
H-1B FAQ: The
White House-September 21, 2025 (Clarifications)
On Friday, September 19, 2025, President Donald J.
Trump signed a Proclamation, “Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers,”
that took an important, initial, and incremental step to reform the H-1B visa
program to curb abuses and protect American workers.
This
Proclamation:
·
Requires a
$100,000 payment to accompany any new H-1B visa petitions submitted after 12:01
a.m. eastern daylight time on September 21, 2025. This includes the 2026
lottery and any other H-1B petitions submitted after 12:01 a.m. eastern
daylight time on September 21, 2025.
·
Authorizes the
Department of Homeland Security and the Department of State to coordinate to
take all necessary and appropriate action to implement this Proclamation.
·
U.S. Citizenship
and Immigration Services has so far taken such action by issuing guidance
regarding the Proclamation, available here.
·
U.S. Customs and
Border Protection has also issued guidance, available here.
·
The Department
of State has posted guidance to all consular offices, consistent with the
guidance from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and U.S. Customs and
Border Protection.
This
Proclamation does not:
·
Apply to any
previously issued H-1B visas, or any petitions submitted before 12:01 a.m.
eastern daylight time on September 21, 2025.
·
Does not change
any payments or fees required to be submitted in connection with any H-1B
renewals. The fee is a one-time fee on submission of a new H-1B petition.
·
Does not prevent
any holder of a current H-1B visa from traveling in and out of the United
States.
Further
steps that will be taken to reform the H-1B program, as contemplated in the
Proclamation, include:
·
A rulemaking by
the Department of Labor to revise and raise the prevailing wage levels to
upskill the H-1B program and ensure that it is used to hire only the best of
the best temporary foreign workers.
·
A rulemaking by
the Department of Homeland Security to prioritize high-skilled, high-paid
aliens in the H-1B lottery over those at lower wage levels.
·
Additional reforms are also under consideration and
will be announced in the coming months.
Overall,
for the top 20 Indian based IT service companies, almost 66% of revenue comes
from the US and 20% from the EU/UK, with growth driven by the BFSI and
manufacturing sectors. FY24 saw ~5.5% overall industry growth in USD terms,
with the US driving ~60% of exports and Europe ~25%.
Impact of the $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
on US Tech Companies
US
tech companies listed in the top 40 H-1B sponsors (e.g., Amazon, Google,
Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and others) will be significantly
affected by President Trump's September 19, 2025, proclamation imposing a
one-time $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa petitions (clarified as applying only to
future applicants in the February 2026 lottery, not renewals or current
holders). This policy, aimed at curbing perceived overuse and prioritizing
"highly skilled" talent, hits these firms hard because they rely
heavily on H-1B visas to fill critical STEM roles—particularly in software
engineering, AI, and cloud computing—where domestic talent shortages persist.
Why US
Techs Are Affected
·
High Sponsorship Volume: US tech giants dominate H-1B filings and
approvals. For instance, Amazon sponsored over 10,000 approvals in the first
half of FY2025 alone, while Microsoft, Meta, and Google each exceeded
4,000–5,000. This represents 2–3% of their total workforce but is vital for
innovation-driven roles.
·
Cost Escalation: The fee adds a massive per-petition burden—e.g., Amazon could face $1B+
in costs for 10,000 new hires—potentially squeezing margins, forcing budget
reallocations, or accelerating automation/offshoring. Smaller tech firms and
startups may be priced out entirely, but even giants like Google and Apple are
reassessing hiring strategies.
·
Immediate Disruption: Post-announcement chaos ensued, with companies
like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Tesla, and JPMorgan (tech-adjacent)
issuing urgent memos advising H-1B holders abroad to return to the US before
the September 21, 2025, deadline to avoid entry risks under the new rules.
Although White House clarifications eased some panic (no fee for re-entry), the
scramble highlights operational vulnerabilities.
·
Long-Term Risks: Critics, including immigration experts and tech lobbyists, warn it
could "put the brakes on American competitiveness" by deterring
global talent, especially from India (71% of approvals). Supporters like
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick argue it ensures companies "train
Americans," but firms like Tesla (Elon Musk's vocal H-1B defender) may see
hiring slowdowns in AI/engineering.
Comparative
Impact: US Tech vs. Indian IT Firms
US techs face similar (but not identical)
challenges to Indian outsourcers like TCS and Infosys, which sponsor ~20–25% of
all H-1B approvals but have higher relative exposure (4–5% of workforce). Both
will see reduced new hires, but US firms' deeper pockets may allow pivots to alternatives
like O-1 visas or domestic upskilling.
Broader
Outlook
·
Short-Term:
Expect a 10–20% drop in new H-1B filings from tech in FY2026, per early
estimates, with legal challenges likely from industry groups like the US Chamber
of Commerce.
·
Mitigations:
Firms are exploring workarounds like L-1 intracompany transfers or lobbying for
exemptions (e.g., AI-focused roles). Brain drain to Canada/EU could rise.
·
Innovation risks
and shifts to non-US markets for Indian talent.
Overall,
while Indian IT faces export revenue hits, US techs risk a talent pipeline crisis that could slow US dominance in
AI/tech—ironically counter to Trump's "America First" tech revival
goals.
IT/Tech companies typically:
·
Have ~15% of the workforce in the U.S.
·
Of this, ~70% are locals
·
~30 on visas (H-1B/L1)
·
~5% of overall US tech employees are on
some work visas
·
Only 1–3% of the global workforce is on
H-1B on average
·
less than 1/3rd of H-1Bs are new
applicants
Pay the fee/fine
·
$100k spread over 3–6 yrs = $16.6k–33k/year
·
Cost possibly shared with clients (for
Indian Techs)
·
EBIT margin hit: ~20–50bps
·
EPS impact: ~2–5%
Hire locals instead
·
Local hiring = ~25–30% higher cost
·
Net extra cost per employee: ~$25K; EPS
impact: ~2–4%
·
No material impact on IT company margins in
FY26
·
FY27: mild EPS hit (3–5%)
·
Offshoring could increase if local talent
is unavailable → margin positive
·
But if the Trump admin really implements
the proposed HIRE Act, levying ~25% tariffs on IT/Tech/any service outsourcing
from India, then it may become serious for the Indian IT/Tech outsourcing
business model and EPS
Indian techs and economy may be
affected much more than the US.
The
message is loud & clear by the Trump administration for US-based Companies:
Focus on local hires and go for only foreign/Indian hires with much higher cost
(Visa Fees) under exceptional cases. This nationalistic sentiment for local
hiring (vocal for local) is also being echoed by Europe, Canada, and even
Australia. Thus, in the longer run, Indian IT service companies have to stress
local hiring, which is bound to affect their margins and earnings growth. The
IT sector may be rerated even if Trump is not in the White House after 2028;
this policy will be followed by even Democrats to ensure vote bank, although it
may affect the note bank. Various big US techs may also be affected due to
Trump’s Visa fee policies and vocal for local jobs narratives, but to a lesser
extent.
Overall, the US economy and labor
market dynamics
·
H-1B Workers: Nonimmigrant workers in
specialty occupations (e.g., IT, engineering). Estimates account for active
visa holders, not just annual approvals~600/700K (0.40%)
·
Other Temporary Visa Workers: Includes
categories like L-1 (intracompany transfers), O-1 (extraordinary ability), TN
(NAFTA professionals), and H-2A/B (seasonal/agricultural). These are
nonimmigrant visas authorizing temporary employment~700/800K (~0.45%)
·
Total Temporary Visa Workers: Combined H-1B
+ other temporary visas (nonimmigrant workers)~1400/1500K (0.90%)
·
Native Americans: Interpreted as
native-born (US-born) workers, per BLS terminology (excluding foreign-born,
regardless of citizenship) ~1300K (80.40%)
·
Indigenous Americans (e.g., American
Indian/Alaska Native) comprise ~1% of the workforce (~1.6 million employed)
·
Foreign-Born Overall: ~31.9 million employed
(19.6% of workforce), including temporary visas, permanent residents, refugees,
and undocumented. Temporary visas make up ~4–5% of foreign-born workers.
Overall,
around 80% of U.S.-employed persons are Native Americans (U.S.-born), while 20%
are foreign-born immigrants. Temporary workers grew ~5% YoY, driven by H-1B
(~71% Indian nationals) and H-2A (agriculture), while the Native-born share has
declined from 82% in 2014 due to an aging population (unfavorable demography)
and immigration. Overall, Impact of 2025 H-1B Fee: Could reduce new H-1B
inflows by 10–20% in FY2026, potentially lowering the share to ~0.3% from the present
0.5%. Trump’s temporary work visa policy will cause a lower supply of the labor
force and higher demand and higher wages due to the limited supply of skilled
Native Americans (locals). Ordinary Average Americans need to go back to the
schools/colleges with STEM (Science, Tech, Engineering and Math) in focus.
Conclusions
Trump’s
vocal support for local labor/job policies may cause a labor shortage to some extent
and higher wage inflation, which may be exacerbated by higher wage inflation
and eventually stagflation despite potentially some deflationary impact of
lower immigrants. Also, higher input costs for producers may cause higher
output prices; i.e., higher inflation, higher cost of living.
On
the other side, for India, Trump’s immigration (work visa) and tariff policies,
including potential taxes on remote services, may also cause higher
unemployment, lower economic growth, higher USDINR and higher imported
inflation; i.e., stagflation.
Market wrap:
Wall Street continues to hit new highs almost every
other day as Big Tech shines. Nvidia soared on $ a $100B
OpenAI JV, Oracle jumped on AI & TikTok US server buzz, Apple surged on iPhone
17 solid demand, Tesla gained to 2025
peak on signs of a Trump-Musk truce. Kenvue plunged 7.5% on Trump’s medical
advice against Tylenol. Dovish Talks by Fed's Maran (Trump Appointee) also
sparked hopes of further 50 bps rate cuts in Q4CY25.
Weekly
Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500 and Gold
Looking
ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 45900) now has to sustain over 46300-46600*
for a further rally to 47100/47200 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining
below 46200/46 may fall to 45800/45500-45300/44900 and further to
44200/43900-43400/42400 and 41700/41200-40700/39900 in the coming days.
Similarly,
NQ-100 Future (25000) now has
to sustain over 25300 and further rally to 25500/25700-26000/26200 in the
coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 25200-25100, NQ-100 may fall to 24700/24500-24300/24000
and further 23700/23000-22600/22400 in the coming days.
Looking
ahead, whatever may be the fundamental narrative, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 6750) now has to sustain over 6800 for a
further rally to 6900/7000-7500/8300 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining
below 6775-6700, may fall to 6575/6550-6525/6500, may fall to
6450-6375/6300-6250/6200 and further fall to 6000/5800-5600/5300 in the coming
days.
Technically
Gold (CMP: 3765) has to sustain over 3795-3805 for a
further rally to 3815/3825-3855/3875, and even 3775/3805-3825/3855 and
3900/3950-4000/4070 and 4265 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 3785-3765/3700-3645/3635,
Gold may again fall to 3575/3545-3520/3500 and 3475/3435-3415/3380 and further
3350/3335-3305/3275-3225/3200 and 3175-3115 in the coming days.
