·          Considering the correlation between M2 & core inflation with Gold, along with geopolitical premium, $4400-4500 may be the best-case scenario for Gold. ·          Apart from geopolitical and macroeconomic issues, China is accumulating gold to support CNY credibility as an alternative to the 'king' USD Gold (XAU/USD) has undergone an insane rally over the past few years, roughly doubling from around $2,000 per ounce in late 2023 to almost $4,400 per ounce by late 2025—a gain of almost 120%. This dramatic & unusual rally has been led by a combination of macroeconomic pressures, global uncertainties, safe-haven demand, and US hegemony, unilateralism over USD sanctions, especially visible after the Russia-Ukraine war erupted. Why is gold looking like a highly volatile commodity in 2025? In 2025 specifically, under Trump 2.0, the yellow metal hit multiple record highs, including $4,381 in...

  ·          Latest US jobs data indicates a higher unemployment rate amid higher labor force participation due to reverse immigration; tech & other layoffs . ·          The US economy may be heading for stagflation, if not recession, in 2026 amid Trump policy chaos, Fed credibility, a looming subprime/prime crisis, and AI bubbles . · Although the Fed may cut 25 bps in Dec'25, going forward, the Fed may have to launch QE-4 in 2026, along with crisis-era rate cuts to almost ZRIP, to fight an all-out recession . On November 20, 2025, apart from Trump's Ukraine plan and Fed talks, the focus of the market was also on the U.S. NFP/BLS delayed job report for September'25, which may help the Fed to decide on any rate cuts at the forthcoming December 10 FOMC meeting, despite lingering data drought after 43-days US government shutdown drama, hampering official data collection process. The BLS Establi...