Dow surged on a real economy boost as the US shutdown drama ended

 

·         AI stocks dragged on bubble concern; also, the US shutdown saga may erupt again after January 2026, as the current agreement is just a truce (DEM vs REP)

As highly expected, in a pivotal 60-40 vote on November 10, 2025, the US Senate successfully invoked cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 5371, the *Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026*. This procedural victory ends weeks of partisan gridlock. It marks the first concrete step toward passing a short-term funding bill to avert—or more precisely, resolve—the ongoing partial government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, when fiscal year 2026 appropriations lapsed.

The Shutdown Saga: From Stalemate to Senate Breakthrough

The crisis erupted on October 1, 2025, when Congress failed to approve fiscal year 2026 appropriations, triggered by Republican demands for deep cuts via the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and Democrats' insistence on extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits that expired on December 31. What began as routine budget wrangling devolved into a historic impasse, surpassing the 35-day 2018-2019 shutdown under Trump's first term.

Late Sunday, November 10, the Senate voted 60-40 to advance a bipartisan continuing resolution (CR), with eight Democratic senators—including moderates like Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)—defecting to join Republicans. The bill, now headed to the House for a vote as early as Wednesday, November 12, funds most operations through January 30, 2026, while sidestepping full ACA extensions.

Key provisions include:

·         Back Pay and Layoff Reversals: Guaranteed retroactive pay for ~1.4 million affected federal workers and reversal of thousands of Trump-ordered reductions in force (RIFs).

·         Targeted Funding: Full-year appropriations for veterans' affairs and agriculture, plus SNAP (food stamps) extension through September 2026 via $4.6 billion in contingency funds.

·         ACA Compromise: A promised Senate floor vote in mid-December on subsidy extensions, but no guarantees—frustrating Democrats like Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who decried it as “surrender."

President Trump, in Fox News remarks, hailed the deal as a "very good" GOP victory, mocking Schumer as "broken." House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has teed up a vote, expecting passage despite progressive Democratic opposition. If signed, agencies could recall workers within days, though full recovery may lag.

Economic Toll: A $600 Billion Wound and Counting

The shutdown's scars run deep, with Bloomberg and CBO estimates pegging weekly losses at $15 billion, totaling over $600 billion if prolonged. It has shaved 0.1-0.2 GDP points weekly, risking Q4 contraction, per White House economist Kevin Hassett. Consumer confidence plunged to 1951 lows, amplifying tariff-induced inflation.

Senate Vote Details and Context

v  Vote Breakdown: 60 Yeas (supporters of proceeding), 40 Nays (opponents). Cloture requires 60 votes to limit debate and overcome a filibuster, and this tally clears that threshold handily.

v  Bill Overview: H.R. 5371, originally passed by the House on September 19, 2025 (217-212), provides continuing appropriations for federal agencies through November 21, 2025, or until full-year FY2026 funding is enacted—whichever comes first. It maintains most programs at FY2025 levels, with targeted extensions for expiring authorities (e.g., telehealth flexibilities, Medicaid adjustments, and cybersecurity sharing). The bill also includes additional funding for federal security and delays certain health-related cuts.

v  Prior Stumbles: This wasn't the Senate's first attempt. Earlier cloture motions failed repeatedly:

·         September 30: 55-45 (fail)

·         October 28: 54-44 (fail)

·         November 4: 54-44 (fail)

These shortfalls highlighted deep divisions, particularly over Republican demands for spending cuts and Democratic pushes for clean funding plus health extenders. A motion to reconsider the November 4 failure was filed on November 8, setting the stage for today's revote. The shutdown has furloughed hundreds of thousands of federal workers, delayed military pay, and disrupted services from national parks to IRS processing. With bipartisan negotiations intensifying in recent days, the November 10 vote reflects a fragile compromise, likely brokered by Senate leadership to prioritize governance amid mounting public pressure.

Next Steps

·         Debate and Amendments: Post-cloture, the Senate can now debate and amend the bill, though time is tight. A final passage vote could come as early as this week.

·         House Action: The House, under Republican control, must concur with any Senate changes. Speaker's office sources indicate willingness to align quickly to avoid extending the shutdown into mid-November.

·         Presidential Signature: If cleared by both chambers, President Trump is expected to sign promptly, restoring full operations retroactively.

This development eases immediate risks but underscores broader fiscal tensions heading into 2026 appropriations. Markets reacted positively, with Treasury yields dipping slightly on reduced default fears.

Compromise between Republicans & Democrats

The successful 60-40 cloture vote on November 10, 2025, signals a bipartisan compromise that allowed the Senate to proceed to H.R. 5371 and begin ending the government shutdown. While the full text of any last-minute agreement isn't public yet, congressional sources and floor statements indicate the following concessions from both sides:

Democrats Conceded:

·         Accepted no new domestic spending increases beyond the FY2025 level (a GOP red line).

·         Dropped demands for clean CR without policy riders.

·         Accepted short CR duration (to Nov 21) rather than pushing for March 2026.

Republicans Conceded:

·         Allowed health program extensions (e.g., telehealth, community health centers, Medicaid DSH cuts delay) — priorities for Democrats.

·         Agreed to drop controversial riders, including Defunding Planned Parenthood, Blocking EPA carbon rules, and Weakening FDA drug approvals.

·         Provided $2.1 billion in supplemental security funding (Capitol Police, Secret Service, courthouse security) — a bipartisan ask post-Jan 6 and recent threats.

How the Deal Came Together

·         Nov 7–9 closed-door talks: Senate Majority Leader (D) and Minority Leader (R) met with moderates from both parties.

·         "Handshake agreement" reported by *Politico* and *The Hill*: Republicans get spending restraint; Democrats secure health extenders and security funds.

·         Three Republicans flipped from "Nay" to "Yea" since the Nov 4 failed vote (59-41 → 60-40 today), likely due to these concessions.

·         VP tie-breaker not needed — a sign of genuine cross-aisle support.

What’s *Not* in the Deal

·         No debt ceiling increase (separate fight looms in Dec 2025).

·         No disaster relief (FEMA funding held for standalone bill).

·         No border wall or immigration policy changes.

Summary

There is a compromise; it’s a pragmatic, narrow deal focused on:

·         Keeping government open

·         Extending expiring health programs

·         Boosting security funding — while kicking bigger fights (spending cuts, debt limit) to December.

The Senate will now debate amendments, but leadership has signaled a goal of final passage by Wednesday, Nov 12, with House concurrence to follow.

As of November 11, 2025, in a landmark bipartisan vote late Monday evening (November 11, 2025), the US Senate passed H.R. 5371, the *Continuing Appropriations, Agriculture, Legislative Branch, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Extensions Act, 2026*, by a 60-40 margin—the same tally that invoked cloture just days ago. This action formally ends the longest government shutdown in US history (41 days, starting October 1, 2025), restoring funding for federal agencies, furloughed workers (with back pay), and critical services like national parks, air traffic control, and veterans' benefits.

Vote Details and Immediate Impact

·         Passage Breakdown: 60 Yeas (bipartisan mix: all 50 Democrats + 10 Republicans, including moderates like Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)); 40 Nays (mostly hardline Republicans pushing for deeper spending cuts).

·         Bill Extensions: Unlike the original short-term CR (to Nov 21), the Senate-amended version: Funds most federal operations through January 30, 2026, at FY2025 levels.

·         Provides full-year FY2026 funding for Agriculture, Legislative Branch, Military Construction, and Veterans Affairs—prioritizing veterans' health care and benefits on Veterans Day.

·         Includes $2.1B in supplemental security funding (Capitol Police, etc.) and extensions for health programs (telehealth, Medicaid).

·         Shutdown Relief: ~800,000 federal employees return to work Tuesday; back pay mandated. Economic fallout (e.g., delayed IRS refunds, SNAP disruptions) begins reversing immediately.

The vote followed intense closed-door negotiations, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) crediting "principled compromise" and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) noting it "avoids default while protecting priorities."

Bipartisan Tensions and Reactions

The deal isn't without drama:

v  Democratic Praise: Washington Post editorial hailed eight Senate Democrats who crossed lines earlier, calling shutdown tactics "inevitable failures." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) slammed Republicans for "Obamacare sabotage attempts."

v  Republican Splits: Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-TN) celebrated veteran funding but blamed "Democrats' shutdown." Family rifts emerged, e.g., a top Democrat's daughter publicly opposing the deal.

v  Market Response: US futures ticked up overnight; Taiwan stocks surged 2% on resolution news.

Key Compromise Wins: Funding Duration/ Policy Riders/ Extras

Democrats:

·         Longer CR (to Jan 30) vs. short-term

·         Health extensions secured; no defunding Planned Parenthood

·         Back pay (furloughed workers) + security funds

Republicans:

·         Full-year for Ag/Mil/Vets/Legislative

·         No new domestic spending; dropped EPA/FDA blocks

·         Spending restraint baseline

Broader Implications

This averts immediate crisis but sets up December debt ceiling showdown and full FY2026 appropriations battles. CBO estimates: ~$300B in discretionary spending extended, with minimal deficit impact in the short-term.

The ongoing US federal government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2025, due to a failure to pass fiscal year 2026 appropriations, has become the longest in US history at 41 days. It stems from partisan disputes over budget cuts proposed by the Trump administration, including the Rescissions Act of 2025 (enacted July 24), which aimed to codify reductions from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. Democrats have tied negotiations to extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance subsidies set to expire at the end of 2025, while Republicans, backed by President Trump, refused to negotiate on these during the shutdown.

Key Developments

v  Senate Passage (November 10): In a 60-40 vote, the Senate advanced and passed a bipartisan funding package late Sunday, with eight Democratic senators defecting from leadership to support it. The bill includes:

·         A continuing resolution funding most government operations through January 30, 2026 (avoiding an immediate post-holiday shutdown).

·         Full appropriations for veterans’ affairs and agriculture agencies.

·         Extension of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP/food stamps) funding through September 2026, using $4.6 billion in contingency funds (following a federal court order).

·         Guarantees of back pay for ~1.4 million furloughed federal workers and reversal of thousands of Trump-ordered layoffs (reductions in force, or RIFs) during the shutdown

·         A December vote on ACA subsidy extensions, though without guarantees of passage.

v  House Outlook: The bill heads to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has scheduled a vote as early as Wednesday, November 12, starting at 4:00 p.m. ET. GOP leadership expects smooth passage, and President Trump is anticipated to sign it promptly if approved.

v  Political Drama: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) criticized’ the deal as a "Republican bill," facing backlash from progressives for not securing ACA concessions upfront.

v  Trump mocked Schumer in a Fox News interview, claiming Republicans "broke him."

v  Some Democrats, like Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), voted against procedural steps in frustration but acknowledged the need to reopen government.

Impacts of the Shutdown & Reopening Drama: The shutdown has disrupted services nationwide, affecting federal employees, travel, and social programs.

·         Federal Workers: ~1.4M furloughed or working without pay; back pay guaranteed in new bill. | Layoffs reversed if the bill passes.

·         Travel & Aviation: FAA cut 10% of air traffic at 40 major airports (e.g., LAX, JFK), canceling 1,500+ flights daily; Trump demanded controllers return or face "negative marks." Disruptions easing with deal in sight; airlines urged quick action.

·         Food Assistance: SNAP benefits delayed for millions; WIC and school lunches at risk, but contingency funds activated; Funded through 2026 in the bill.

·         National Parks & Services: Parks open but understaffed, leading to damage and illegal activities; IRS tax processing halted; full staffing pending reopening.

·         Economy: Estimated $5B+ daily cost; hit small businesses near parks and federal-heavy regions like Virginia. Short-term relief expected; long-term budget talks loom.

·         Veterans' services remain partially operational, but access is delayed; contact congressional offices for casework assistance.

Next Steps and Outlook

·         Reopening Timeline: If the House passes the bill on Wednesday, agencies could begin recalling workers within days, though full operations may take a week.

·         Future Risks: Funding expires January 30, 2026, setting up potential new shutdown battles over DOGE cuts and ACA subsidies.

Compromises in the 2025 Government Shutdown Deal

The bipartisan agreement advanced by the Senate on November 10, 2025, represents a hard-fought compromise between Trump/Republicans and Democrats, though it's been criticized as uneven by progressives on the left and hardliners on the right. After 41 days—the longest shutdown in U.S. history—eight Democratic senators (including moderates like Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, plus independent Angus King of Maine) broke ranks to join nearly all Republicans in a 60-40 procedural vote to advance the bill. This deal- which heads to the House for a vote as early as November 12, avoids an immediate post-Thanksgiving shutdown, but kicks the can to January 30, 2026, for deeper budget talks.

Trump/Republicans

Compromises:

·         Agreed to reverse thousands of Trump-ordered layoffs (RIFs) of federal workers during the shutdown, halting further firings until January 30, 2026.

·         Committed to full-year funding for politically sensitive areas like veterans' affairs and agriculture (e.g., $1.2 billion for Food for Peace, benefiting farm-state Republicans).

·         Pledged a Senate floor vote in mid-December on ACA subsidy extensions (though no guarantee of passage and House Speaker Mike Johnson has refused a similar vote.

Gains Secured:

·         Avoided immediate, long-term ACA extension, preserving leverage for DOGE cuts and rescissions in future talks.

·         Democrats dropped demands for Medicaid reversals, public media funding, and curbs on Trump's "pocket rescissions.

·         Trump hailed it as a "very good" deal, signaling a quick signature if the House passes it, and floated redirecting ACA funds "directly to the people" as a potential future olive branch.

Democrats

Compromises:

·         Relented on requiring ACA subsidies in the funding bill, settling for a promised December vote instead—frustrating leaders like Chuck Schumer, who called it a "surrender of leverage."

·         Accepted short-term funding (through Jan. 30) without broader guardrails against future Trump spending cuts.

Gains Secured:

·         Secured back pay for ~1.4 million furloughed workers and reversal of layoffs

·         Full SNAP/food stamps extension through September 2026 using $4.6 billion in contingency funds (upholding a court order)

·         Blocked House GOP attempts to defund oversight agencies like the Government Accountability Office.

Political Reactions and Outlook

Democratic Backlash: Progressives like Bernie Sanders and Rep. Greg Casar slammed it as "capitulation," arguing it betrays ACA beneficiaries without firm protections. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries warned House Dems won't back it without ACA fixes, but the GOP's slim majority could pass it solo. Polls show 50% blame Republicans vs. 43% for Dems, giving the left ammo for midterms.

Republican/Trump View: Trump mocked Schumer as "broken" on Fox News, framing it as a GOP win after Democrats "folded." Thune and others credit bipartisan talks, including Trump's input, for the breakthrough.

Looking ahead

If the House passes it on Wednesday, Trump is expected to sign quickly, reopening agencies within days. But with ACA votes looming and DOGE cuts unresolved, this is more truce than treaty—expect round two in January.

Economic Impact of the 2025 US Government Shutdown: ~1% on real GDP

The 41-day federal government shutdown, now the longest in US history, has inflicted significant economic damage, estimated at $15 billion per week in lost output, according to analysts from Bloomberg and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This equates to a 0.1-0.2 percentage point drag on GDP growth per week, with total costs potentially exceeding $600 billion if extended further. Direct effects include furloughed workers' lost productivity (a permanent $7 billion GDP hit from irrecoverable output), reduced federal spending ($33 billion so far, potentially $74 billion by eight weeks), and ripple effects on consumer spending and small businesses.

Indirectly, delayed economic data (e.g., BLS reports) has clouded Fed policy decisions, contributing to market volatility and a 1.5% GDP reduction already, per the National Economic Council. While the economy typically rebounds post-shutdown, this prolonged stalemate—amid Trump's tariff pushes and DOGE cuts—risks tipping into recession by eroding consumer confidence (down 10-15 points in recent polls) and amplifying uncertainty. The bipartisan Senate deal (passed November 10) promises reopening by mid-week, with back pay guaranteed, but lingering effects like aviation chaos and ACA uncertainty persist.

Airlines and the Aviation Sector

The shutdown's strain on unpaid air traffic controllers (essential workers) has triggered unprecedented FAA-mandated flight reductions, crippling holiday travel and costing the industry $285-580 million daily at peak cuts (per Airlines for America). Since October 1, over 4 million passengers have been affected by delays/cancellations, with weekend peaks hitting 2,800 cancellations and 10,200 delays on November 9 alone—the worst day since the shutdown began. Staffing shortages account for 71% of National Airspace System delays, exacerbated by controllers' fatigue from 10-hour shifts and six-day workweeks without pay.

Economic Toll:

·         $1 billion/week in lost travel revenue; broader GDP drag from commerce slowdown.

·         Airlines must refund cancellations but not hotels/food; reduced bookings could cut 2025 airline GDP contribution (5% of total) by 2-3%.

·         Travelers rage over "shutdown chaos," with pilots publicly venting frustration.

·         If the House passes the bill by Nov. 12, cuts could ease within days, but full recovery may take weeks amid weather compounding issues.

Federal Employees and Related Programs

Approximately 60%; i.e., 1.4 million civilian federal workers (out of 2.3 million total) are impacted; ~700,000 furloughed (not working, no pay) and ~700,000 accepted (working without pay, e.g., TSA, military). This has triggered $9 billion in missed paychecks so far (potentially $23 billion by two months), fueling financial distress—delayed bills, food insecurity, and mental health strain (e.g., 68% report stress in AFGE surveys). Contractors (not guaranteed back pay) face layoffs, amplifying the hit. The Senate bill reverses thousands of Trump-ordered RIFs (layoffs) and ensures back pay, providing relief. However, social media posts highlight worker fury: "Stressed, unpaid, and sidelined—shutdown's toll on feds is real."

Economic Toll:

·         Permanent $7B GDP loss from unrecoverable output; $400M/day in back-pay tab for furloughed staff.

·         Reduced spending in fed-heavy areas (e.g., Virginia, New Mexico: high poverty + federal jobs) hits retail/daycares.

·         $400M/day national drag; states like NM scramble for SNAP aid amid delays.

·         SNAP froze Nov. 1 (42M affected; court-ordered contingency funds activated but delayed).

·         WIC/school lunches at risk: $4.6B in emergency funds needed.

·         Tourism near parks is down 20-30% ($1B/week lost).

ACA Subsidies and Healthcare Access

The shutdown's core flashpoint—Democrats' push to extend enhanced ACA premium tax credits (PTCs) expiring Dec. 31, 2025—looms as a "subsidy cliff." These ARPA/IRA boosts (extended through 2025) have cut average premiums by 44-50%, driving record 21.4 million enrollments (up 88% since 2020) at $138 billion federal cost in 2025. Without extension, premiums revert to original ACA levels, hitting affordability hard. The deal schedules a December vote, but no guarantees—Republicans balk at the $300B+ extension cost. Social Media buzz: Enrollees vent "81% hike? Can't afford life-saving care," tying it to shutdown blame.

·         Premium Hikes: Avg. out-of-pocket doubles (114% rise: $888 to $1,904/year).

·         Older/middle-income (e.g., 55-64 pre-medicare) individuals face $1,000+ jumps; e.g., one enrollee's bill from $589 to $1,065/month (81% up).

·         Pre-subsidy premiums rise 5-18%.

·         4-4.2 million drop plans.

·         Disproportionate hit to low/moderate-income (100-400% FPL), gig workers, farmers; 80% of subsidies in Trump-won states.

·         $100B+ in uncompensated care; insurer instability

·         Shifts costs to providers/states; reduced enrollment raises premiums further (adverse selection).

·         Early retirees/cancer survivors face "terrifying" tradeoffs (e.g., skipping scans). |

Overall Outlook and Broader Economy

·         Short-Term: Senate passage offers reopening by Nov. 13, muting immediate GDP bleed, but aviation/SNAP lags could add $50-100B in Q4 costs.

·         Long-Term Risks: ACA cliff + DOGE cuts could add 0.5-1% to inflation via healthcare; consumer confidence (70% of GDP) may dip further, per The Conversation. Polls blame Republicans (50% vs. 43% Dems), fueling 2026 midterm volatility.

·         Silver Lining- Contingency funds and back pay mitigate some pain.

Trump's $2,000 "Tariff Dividend" Checks and 50-Year Mortgage Proposal:

President Trump has made headlines over the weekend with two bold economic ideas aimed at addressing affordability amid the ongoing government shutdown and rising costs: a $2,000 "dividend check" for most Americans funded by tariff revenues, and a new 50-year mortgage option to ease home buying. Both emerged from Truth Social posts and administration statements, but they've drawn mixed reactions—praise for short-term relief, criticism for fiscal feasibility, and long-term risks. These proposals come as the Senate advances a shutdown-ending bill, with House passage expected today (November 12). Neither has formal legislation yet, and implementation would require congressional approval.

Trump's Tariff Dividend: A $2,000 Lifeline or Fiscal Mirage?

On November 9, Trump posted on Truth Social: "People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are taking in trillions of dollars and will soon begin paying down our enormous debt. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high-income people!) will be paid to everyone." He reiterated this in Oval Office remarks on November 10, framing it as a reward for economic strength under his policies, with excess funds going to debt reduction. This revives a summer idea, tied to the $220+ billion in tariff revenue collected since his second term began (including duties on China, Mexico, Canada, and a broad "Liberation Day" tariff on most imports).

·         Aimed at "middle- and lower-income" Americans (exact thresholds unclear; modeled after COVID checks,

·         Excludes "high-income people.

·         Timeline: No firm date; Trump suggested "soon," but Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said on ABC's *This Week* (Nov. 10) it's not formalized and could manifest as tax breaks (e.g., no tax on tips/overtime/Social Security) rather than direct checks.

·         Related Bill: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) introduced the American Worker Rebate Act in July, offering $600/adult + $600/child (up to $2,400/family of four), phasing out above $75K/$150 income. It stalled in committee.

·         Costs- Provides quick relief (~$326B for 163M filers, per IRS data).

·         Twice the annual tariff revenue (~$300B/year); could add $600B/year if ongoing. Supreme Court (hearing Nov. 5) may rule tariffs illegal, forcing refunds.

·         Inflation/Debt:  Boosts spending in shutdown-hit areas (e.g., travel, retail).

·         Risks inflation (Fed may pause rate cuts).

·         Diverts from debt paydown (Trump's priority).

·         Politics- Polls show 50%+ support for rebates; ties to DOGE savings (though unmaterialized). | Critics (e.g., Dems) call it a "bribe"; no GOP House votes yet.

·         Gold prices spiked above $4,100/oz on the announcement, signaling inflation fears.

The 50-Year Mortgage: Dream Enabler or Debt Trap?

On November 9, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic contrasting FDR's 30-year mortgage (New Deal era) with his "50-year mortgage" to "make the American Dream for young people." FHFA Director Bill Pulte confirmed: "Thanks to President Trump, we are indeed working on The 50-year Mortgage—a complete game changer," via Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac. It's pitched as a tool to combat soaring home prices (median $415K, up 50% since 2020) and rates (~6.3%), amid a 4.7M-unit shortage.

How It Works:

·         Extends amortization from 30 to 50 years, lowering monthly payments (e.g., $415K home at 6.3%: $2,056/M → $1,823/M saving $233/M).

·         Targets first-time buyers (average age now 40, per NAR).

·         Timeline: In development; could launch via FHFA directive, but Dodd-Frank caps "qualified" mortgages at 30 years, requiring regulatory tweaks. Pulte called it part of a "wide arsenal" for affordability.

·         Trump's Pitch: On Fox's *Ingraham Angle* (Nov. 10): "It's not even a big deal. You go from 40 to 50 years. All it means is you pay less per month." (Note: He misstated the standard as 40 years; it's 30.)

These ideas tie into Trump's affordability push amid shutdown fallout (e.g., aviation chaos, SNAP delays) and ACA subsidy cliffs, but experts warn they could exacerbate inflation/debt without supply-side fixes (e.g., more housing builds). Consumer sentiment hit a 1951 low in November, with 80% of independents disapproving of Trump's economy. If the shutdown bill passes, focus shifts to December ACA votes—potentially linking to these rebates.

Trump 2.0: Growing Political & Policy Uncertainty?

In the shadow of the Capitol dome, a 41-day federal government shutdown—the longest in American history—has ground essential services to a halt, furloughed hundreds of thousands of workers, and ignited fierce partisan battles over healthcare subsidies and fiscal austerity. Yet, as the Senate edges toward resolution today, President Trump’s administration is pivoting with audacious proposals: $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks for most Americans and a radical 50-year mortgage to turbocharge homeownership. These moves, floated amid economic turbulence, promise relief but risk exacerbating inflation and debt. This isn't victory—it's a truce. As Trump eyes midterms, fiscal discipline clashes with voter demands. The real test: Can Washington deliver without another shutdown?

Bottom Line

This is a truce, not a permanent deal. Fed may be on hold not only in Decmeber’25 but also for H1CY26 to assess US economic data and outlook thereof along with growing political & policy uncertainty in the world’s largest economy.

Market Wrap

U.S. Markets closed the session with a mixed performance amid ongoing progress toward resolving the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data releases. Optimism over a potential funding deal boosted sentiment in cyclical sectors, but persistent concerns about labor market softening and Fed policy divergence capped gains. Equities saw a modest rebound, bonds stabilized after recent volatility, and the dollar edged lower on rate-cut speculation after ADP’s terrible data about the employment situation for the US economy in October amid the Federal government shutdown. Gold, UST, and also stocks surged on hopes of another Fed rate cut in December'25.

Progress in the Senate toward reopening the government lifted sentiment in economically sensitive sectors while health care leaders such as Merck (4.8%), Amgen (4.6%), and Johnson & Johnson (2.9%) led the Dow higher. Hopes that the resumption of government operations will release delayed economic data and support near-term growth also buoyed broader sentiment. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was pressured as renewed pressure hit AI-exposed stocks. SoftBank's sale of its entire $5.8 billion Nvidia stake weighed on the sector, with Nvidia falling 3% while Micron, Oracle, and Palantir each lost between 4.9% and 1.4%.

·         Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.4% to 48100 (new session high), led by blue-chips and industrials amid shutdown resolution hopes.

·         S&P 500: +0.3% to 5,820, recovering from last week's tech-led pullback; year-to-date gains now at ~15%.

·         Nasdaq Composite: -0.2% to 18,450, weighed down by AI/tech names (NVDA -1.1%, AMD -0.8%) on valuation worries.

·         Key Movers: Airlines surged 2-3% (e.g., DAL +2.5%) on travel resumption bets; CoreWeave (CRWV) +4% pre-earnings. Healthcare and consumer staples outperformed, while semis lagged.

·         Driver: Senate advancement of a shutdown-ending bill (funding through Jan 2026) fueled risk-on rotation, though delayed jobs data adds uncertainty.

Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500 and Gold

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 47140) now has to sustain over 47400-47700 for a further rally to 48000-48300* and 48600/49000-49700/50000 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 47200-47000, DJ-30 may fall to 46500/46200-46000/45800* and further 45500/44950-44500/44200 and 43500 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100Future (25150) now has to sustain over 25400-25700 for a further rally to 26000/26200-26500 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 25300-25000, NQ-100 may fall to 24700/24500-24300/24200* and 23700/23400/23000 and 22600/22400 in the coming days.

Looking at the chart, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 6750) now has to sustain over 6800-6850 for a further rally to 6950/7050 and 7200/7300-7500/8300 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 6700, may fall to 6650/6595 and 6490/6450-6375/6300-6250/6200 and further fall to 6080 in the coming days.

Looking at the chart, Technically Gold (CMP: $4125) has to sustain over 4155 for 4175/4195-4300/4380 and further to 4395-4405 for 4425/4455-4475/4500 to 4555-4575 and even 5000 zone in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 4145, Gold may again fall to 4090/4050-4025/4000 and 3910/3875-3770/3740 and 3700/3600-3500/3450 and 3350 levels in the coming weeks.