·          But Nifty may not fall heavily for the time being on hopes of an early Ukraine war ceasefire; both India and the US are trying hard to persuade Putin ·          Noble Peace Prize aspirant Trump may also meet Putin by next week to sign the ‘historical’ Ukraine ceasefire deal in the remote presence of Zelenskyy and EU leaders ·          Trump’s 50% tariffs on India are an effective embargo to export in the US; ALTHOUGH Trump may withdraw it before August 27, India-US relations will get a permanent scar ·          If there is no BTA between India and the US, Nifty may fall towards 22000 levels by September-October’25 due to stagflation concern On July 30, U.S. President Trump imposed a 25%tariff on Indian goods, effective August 7, 2025, followed by an additional 25% "penalty" tariff, announced on August 6...

  ·          Trump is trying to publicly pressure India & privately China to force Putin to stop the Ukraine war by August 8-12; will Putin oblige? ·          Trump’s bullying tactics and insulting comments about India may compel the Modi admin to go slower on BTA talks due to domestic political compulsion. ·          Trump 2.0 no longer needs India to counter China, as Trump is now not seeking decoupling, but derisking with China on various strategic issues. ·          India needs the US and USD; the US is India’s biggest source of USD (trade surplus + remittances) for ~$95B ·          The US alone constitutes almost 15% of India’s FX/USD reserve; USDINR may soar to 95-100 if Trump's tariff tantrum lingers and intensifies seriously. ·       ...