·          US core PCE inflation data indicates broader price pressure as Trump policy gradually transmits in the real economy with more tariffs from Aug’25 ·          Growing uncertainty about the Ukraine war ceasefire and probabilities of direct/indirect involvement of the US Air Force also boosted Gold and dragged stocks ·          Gold is also boosted by Powell’s Jackson Hole comments, indicating an imminent Fed rate cut and Trump’s attempt to sack Fed Gov. Cook and control the Fed board ·          Overall, the US average core inflation (PCE+CPI) will be around 3.0% vs TGT 2.0% and unemployment rate 4.2% vs TGT 3.7% in 2025 ·          After expected 50 bps rate cuts in H2CY25, the Fed may again go on an extended pause till at least H1CY25 to assess the real impact of Trum...

  ·          If Trump’ attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook succeeds, then Trump will have controlling power of the Fed board and influence to cut rates by 100 bps ·          Trump’ and his loyalists’ 24/7 reality shows indicate an intention to influence Fed policy and control Wall Street, but this may backfire ·          Trump’s tariff policy, secondary sanctions, and USD hegemony may result in US isolation rather than China ·          Wall Street may correct meaningfully in September as valuation is now in a bubble zone; stagflation may be looming Wall Street Futures and Gold got a boost after Fed ChairPowell indicated an imminent rate cut in September by 25 bps, which may be followed by another 25 bps in December, culminating in 50 bps in 2025 against 100 bps in 2024. But overall, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Aug...