Gold surged, USD slips on Trump’s tariff & Fed politicization

 

·         Wall Street stumbled as the Trump tariff finally kicks in ~21% weighted average rate vs 3% earlier; US importers & consumers may have to bear 70-90%

·         Trump may not meet Putin personally until Putin meets Zelenskyy to finalize the Ukraine war ceasefire deal

·         Trump’s growing tendency to weaponize tariffs in geopolitical issues and politicize the Fed and, BLS is undermining the USD and Wall Street

·         The US economy may face both demand and supply shocks as a result of Trump tariffs, something which may not be good for the overall Goldilocks nature

As of July 7, 2025, President Trump’s tariff actions have been a central component of his trade policy, focusing on addressing trade imbalances, boosting U.S. manufacturing, and leveraging tariffs for economic and non-trade objectives. On April 2, 2025, Trump declared a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing large U.S. trade deficits as a threat to national security and the economy. He imposed a baseline 10% tariff on imports from nearly all trading partners, with higher country-specific "reciprocal" tariffs (up to 50%) for nations with significant trade imbalances. These tariffs were initially paused for 90 days (except for China) to allow negotiations, with deadlines extended multiple times.

On July 7, Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff implementation deadline from July 9 to August 1, 2025, to allow further negotiations. He also began sending letters to foreign leaders, announcing new tariff rates effective August 1. These letters outlined country-specific tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, reflecting perceived trade imbalances, geopolitical issues, and negotiation outcomes.

Product-Specific Tariffs: Sectoral tariffs

·         Steel, Aluminum, and Copper: Under Section 232, tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper were raised to 50%. On July 30, Trump imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1.

·         Automobiles: A 25% tariff on imported cars and parts from most countries was implemented, with some relief for vehicles assembled in the U.S. using foreign parts (e.g., a 3.75% rebate in year one).

·         Tomatoes from Mexico: On July 14, the Commerce Department withdrew from a 2019 agreement, subjecting Mexican tomatoes to a 20.91% tariff.

·         Pending Tariffs: On July 14, Trump threatened a 250% tariff on pharmaceutical imports to force pharma companies to manufacture in the US.

·         Transshipment Tariffs: A new 40% tariff on goods transshipped to evade duties was introduced, targeting practices like repackaging Chinese goods in other countries.

·         Non-Trade Objectives: Trump used tariffs to address non-trade issues, such as Brazil’s political situation, India’s buying of Russian oil, and Canada’s inclination for a separate Palestine state, reflecting a strategy of leveraging trade policy for broader geopolitical goals.

·         Fentanyl Tariffs: As of August 8, 2025, President Donald J. Trump has implemented and threatened tariffs on Canada (25%), Mexico (25%), and China (20%), citing the flow of illicit fentanyl and other drugs as a key justification. These tariffs, often referred to as "fentanyl tariffs," are part of a broader trade policy invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to address what the administration calls a national emergency posed by drug trafficking and public health crises.

While Trump’s administration claims tariffs will boost U.S. manufacturing and reduce trade deficits, critics argue they risk global trade wars, increase consumer prices, and disrupt alliances. The inconsistent deadlines and high rates have caused market uncertainty, and the use of tariffs for non-trade issues (e.g., Brazil’s political trials) raises questions about their strategic coherence.

Major Trading Partners: Country-Specific Tariffs from August:

·         European Union(EU): 15% vs 20% in April

·         China: 30% (including Fentanyl tariff 20%) vs 34% in April

·         Canada: Effective weighted average tariffs would be ~11.00% from August vs 10.00% earlier in April’25; 35% base tariff + 25% fentanyl tariff on non-USMCA goods (~10% of imports), effective August 1, 2025; USMCA goods (~40%) exempt; energy/potash at 10% (on ~50% of Canadian exports). Canada’ USMCA-compliant goods (~38/40%) primarily consist of autos and parts meeting 75% North American content. Energy and potash exports (~52/50% consist of mainly oil, gas, and minerals face a 10% tariff. The remaining ~8/10% are non-USMCA-manufactured goods like electronics or agricultural products face the 60% tariff from August’25 vs the earlier 50% in April’25

·         Mexico: ~13.7% from August vs 12.50% in April; Tariffs remain at 25% for most goods, with a 17% tariff on tomatoes.; 25% base tariff + 25% fentanyl tariff on non-USMCA goods (~50%), effective March 4, 2025, under IEEPA. USMCA-compliant goods (~50%) are exempt indefinitely.

·         Japan: 15% vs 24%

·         Vietnam: 20% vs 46%

·         U.K.: 10% vs 10%

·         India 25%+25%=50% vs 26% (including Russian oil punishment tariff 25%)

·         South Korea: 15% vs 30%

·         Taiwan: 20% vs 32%

·         Brazil: 10% vs 50% (including 40% Political tariff)

·         50% – Brazil, India

·         41–45% – Syria, Laos, Myanmar

·         30–39% – China, Canada, Switzerland, Algeria

·         25–29% – Mexico, Tunisia, Moldova, Kazakhstan

·         19-20% – Taiwan, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Bangladesh,

·         15% – EU, Japan, Israel, Ghana, over 60 others

·         Targeting 69+ nations-weighted average rate ~21-23% vs 3% prior (3.5-2.5)

·          Highest U.S. tariff regime in 100+ yrs.

Trump’s tariffs may cause synchronized global stagflation in 2026

Overall, as of now, the weighted average Trump tariffs would be ~20.5% from August 7, at least theoretically, against the earlier 3.5% in pre-Trump 2.0 and 10.5% in H1CY25. Assuming ~18% net increase in tariffs, and equal burden sharing by US importers, consumers and also global exporters, each has to bear ~6% each. But as per the ground report, US importers and consumers may have to bear at least 50% and 40% Trump tariff costs; global exporters may not be able to bear more than 10%. In any way, US corporate earnings may face 6-10% Trump tariff pressure, while the cost of living for US consumers may be increased by 6-7%, while global exporters may face a 2-6% margin squeeze to retain US market share. All these may lead to synchronized global stagflation in 2026.

Nobel Peace Prize Aspirant Trump is now trying to pressure Russia to stop the Ukraine war:

Trump has escalated his trade policy by threatening and implementing secondary or "punishment" tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, with a particular focus on India, while also signaling potential actions against China and other nations like Brazil and Turkey. These tariffs aim to pressure Russia into resolving its war in Ukraine by targeting its major oil buyers. Trump’s strategy involves using secondary tariffs—penalties on countries trading with sanctioned nations like Russia—to curb Moscow’s oil revenue, which funds its military actions in Ukraine. These tariffs are distinct from primary tariffs (e.g., reciprocal tariffs under the IEEPA) and are designed to deter countries from purchasing Russian energy. The policy builds on Trump’s earlier executive orders, such as those targeting Venezuelan oil buyers, and reflects a shift from traditional sanctions to trade-based penalties.

Trump’s objective is to starve Russia of oil revenue, which amounted to approximately $192 billion in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Russia exports about 4.5–5 million barrels per day, with China (47%), India (38%), the EU (6%), and Turkey (6%) as its largest buyers. Trump has threatened tariffs up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil, with specific actions already taken against India. These tariffs would apply to all exports from the targeted country to the U.S., not just energy-related goods, significantly impacting trade.

India:

·         July 30, 2025: Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods effective August 7, 2025, citing India’s high tariffs on U.S. goods and its reliance on Russian oil and military equipment. He also threatened an additional “penalty” tariff for India’s Russian oil purchases, accusing India of profiting by reselling Russian oil on the open market.

·         August 6, 2025: Trump signed an executive order doubling India’s tariff to 50%, adding a 25% penalty tariff (effective August 27, 2025) on top of the existing 25% tariff (effective August 7, 2025). The order, titled “Addressing Threats to the US by the Government of the Russian Federation,” explicitly cited India’s direct or indirect imports of Russian oil. This places India among the highest-tariffed nations, alongside Brazil, at a competitive disadvantage compared to other Asean peers (15-20%).

India’s Ministry of External Affairs called the tariffs “unjustified and unreasonable,” emphasizing that its oil imports are driven by market factors and the need to ensure energy security for 1.4 billion people. India noted that the U.S. and EU also trade with Russia (e.g., $3.5 billion in U.S.-Russia trade in 2024, 67.5 billion euros in EU-Russia trade, including LNG). New Delhi vowed to protect its national interests and has not committed to halting Russian oil purchases.  Analysts estimate Trump tariffs could reduce India’s GDP by 0.3–0.5%, primarily affecting textile, leather, and seafood exports. However, some argue the impact is minimal compared to the cost of losing discounted Russian oil, which has stabilized global prices. Indian refiners have paused some Russian oil purchases, but long-term contracts remain unchanged.

China:

By July 7, China faced a 30% tariff under Trump’s reciprocal tariff framework, but no specific secondary tariffs for Russian oil were announced. China, the largest buyer of Russian oil (47% of Russia’s crude exports), was in ongoing trade negotiations, with a 90-day tariff pause granted in some contexts, possibly to secure concessions. Trump hinted at potential secondary sanctions on China, stating on August 6, “You’re going to see a lot more… so much secondary sanctions,” when asked why India was singled out while China, the largest Russian oil buyer, faced no additional tariffs.

Trump’s August 6 executive order directed U.S. officials to identify other countries importing Russian oil and recommend further actions, potentially targeting Brazil, Turkey, and others. Brazil’s 50% tariff rate aligns with India’s, indicating it may also face penalties for Russian oil purchases. Turkey’s status remains unclear, but its role as a major buyer makes it a likely target.

NATO chief Mark Rutte, on July 16, 2025, urged Brazil, India, and China to pressure Putin for peace talks, warning of economic consequences if they continue buying Russian oil. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, on July 29, 2025, warned Chinese counterparts in Stockholm that Trump’s threats to escalate sanctions on Russian oil buyers should be taken seriously. China has remained largely unfazed, continuing to import Russian oil and even sanctioned Iranian oil via intermediaries, suggesting confidence in navigating U.S. pressure. No specific penalty tariff on China for Russian oil was confirmed by August 8, 2025, raising questions about selective enforcement.

Trump’s secondary tariffs aim to isolate Russia economically by targeting its oil revenue, but critics argue they risk alienating key allies like India, a strategic counterweight to China. The selective targeting of India over China has drawn accusations of inconsistency, as China’s larger oil purchases have not yet faced equivalent penalties. Curtailing Russian oil exports (5% of global consumption) could spike prices above $120 per barrel, harming U.S. consumers and triggering inflation. India’s purchases have helped stabilize global prices by absorbing discounted Russian oil.

Trump-Putin meeting delayed

Noble Peace Prize Aspirant Trump is now seeking to end the Ukraine war immediately, while Putin may also be exploring favorable ceasefire terms & conditions under Trump 2.0. On August 6, 2025, U.S. President Trump announced that "great progress" was made during a meeting between his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The talks, described as "highly productive" by Trump on Truth Social, focused on seeking a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, ahead of a U.S.-imposed deadline for Russia to reach a peace deal by August 8, 2025, or face severe economic sanctions, including secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, such as India.

On August 7, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would only meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin if Putin also agreed to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. This condition highlights Trump’s push for a trilateral summit to address the ongoing conflict. Also, a White House official told ABC News that a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has not been finalized, contradicting earlier Kremlin claims that a meeting had been agreed upon with a location secured.

Trump may replace Fentanyl tariffs on China with Russian oil punishment tariffs:

Looking ahead, Trump may withdraw 20% Fentanyl tariffs on China for ‘satisfactory’ progress in preventing the precursor supplies, but may also impose 25% Punitive Russian oil (punishment) tariffs on China, so that all main BRICS countries has to face 30%-50% tariffs to sell goods in the US; India (50%); Brazil (50%); China (30-35%); South Africa (30%) and Russia (may be 50%). Trump will not like the sudden romance between India and China, supported actively by Brazil, Russia and other BRICS countries. BRICS may officially respond and state Trump’s unilateral tariff imposition and bullying tactics in the coming days.

Trump’s New Golden Age for America reaches 200 days:

On August 7, 2025, the White House published an article titled “200 Days of Winning: President Trump Is Keeping His Promises,” detailing President Trump’s accomplishments in his first 200 days of his second term. The article frames these achievements as evidence of Trump’s commitment to an “America First” agenda, claiming his first 200 days outpaced most administrations’ full terms, with more progress expected along with a rercord amount of ~$17T investment commitments by various US/non-US MNCs to set up their production facilities in the US (at Trump’s tariff gun point).

·         Trade and Tariffs: Trump secured eight historic trade deals covering over half of global GDP, generating over $150 billion in tariff revenue, fulfilling his March 9, 2024, promise to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries like China to address unfair trade practices.

·         Economic Policies: The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law, delivered the largest tax cut in history, including no tax on tips, overtime, or Social Security, as promised on October 12, 2024. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs, inflation moderated, and egg prices dropped 67% from their peak, aligning with Trump’s September 13, 2024, prosperity pledge.

·         Immigration: Illegal border crossings reached a new monthly low, with zero releases into the U.S. interior for multiple months, and border wall construction resumed in El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley, fulfilling an October 12, 2024, promise to close the border.

·         Energy: The administration opened 13 million acres in Alaska for mining and drilling, ending Biden-era wind energy preferences, as promised on August 3, 2024. Gas prices hit a 20-year low by Memorial Day 2025, per a January 16, 2024, pledge.

·         Defense and Foreign Policy: NATO nations agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, exceeding Trump’s August 26, 2024, 3% target. A draft plan for a U.S.-built “Golden Dome” missile defense system was announced, fulfilling a June 15, 2024, promise.

·         Crime and Safety: Deportation of tens of thousands of criminal illegal immigrants contributed to a projected record-low murder rate, as promised on November 4, 2024. Over 13,000 of 325,000 missing migrant children were located, addressing a November 1, 2024, pledge.

·         Technology and Crypto: The America’s AI Action Plan and the GENIUS Act for stablecoin regulation were unveiled, fulfilling December 12, 2024, and May 26, 2024, to lead in AI and cryptocurrency.

·         Regulatory Reform: Trump cut regulations at a 10-to-1 ratio, surpassing his first term’s 4-to-1 rate, as promised on October 10, 2024. A merit-based federal hiring plan was also implemented, per an August 29, 2024, commitment.

·         Social Policies: Multiple medical institutions halted gender-affirming care for minors, and the U.S. Olympic Committee banned men from women’s sports, keeping promises made on November 18, 2023, and May 26, 2024. Federal agencies were directed to protect religious expression, per a January 19, 2025, commitment.

USD slips, Gold surged after Trump appointed his ‘yes man’ and tariff hawk (czar) Miran as temporary Fed Governor, while hinting at Waller as the next Fed Chair. On August 7, 2025, President Trump announced the appointment of Dr. Stephen Miran, the current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board until January 31, 2026. The announcement, reported by breakingthenews.net, highlights Miran’s temporary appointment while a permanent replacement is sought. Trump praised Miran’s credentials, noting his Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University, his service during Trump’s first administration, and his role from the start of the second term. Trump emphasized Miran’s economic expertise, expressing confidence in his ability to excel in the role. Trump said he will nominate CEA Chair Stephen Miran to fill the Fed seat being vacated this week by Adriana Kugler. Miran has been a resolute advocate of Trump's economic agenda and very critical of the Fed's decision to cut rates last year.

Miran’s public profile centers on trade policy, tariffs, and addressing U.S. trade deficits through measures like the proposed “Mar-a-Lago Accord,” rather than advocating for loose monetary policy. While he might push aggressively for lower interest rates, aligning with Trump’s criticism of the Fed, others label him an inflation hawk, and his writings suggest a pragmatic approach focused on trade leverage and dollar valuation over traditional dovish policies like rate cuts. His economic philosophy, rooted in protectionism and fiscal policy, aligns more closely with Trump’s agenda than with conventional dovish or hawkish monetary policy categories.

Last year, Miran and a co-author decried the "revolving door" between the Fed and the executive branch: "Short-circuiting the revolving door between the Fed and the executive branch is critical to reducing the incentives for officials to act in the short-term political interests of the president." In a paper, they proposed a top-to-bottom legislative overhaul of the governance of the Fed, which they said had failed to remain apolitical under its current institutional arrangements. Among their proposals: make governors removable by the president for any reason and impose a four-year ban on Fed officials from serving in an executive branch office.

Trump posted on his Truth:

·         It is my Great Honor to announce that I have chosen Dr. Stephen Miran, current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, to serve in the just vacated seat on the Federal Reserve Board until January 31, 2026. In the meantime, we will continue to search for a permanent replacement. Stephen has a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and served with distinction in my First Administration. He has been with me from the beginning of my Second Term, and his expertise in the World of Economics is unparalleled — He will do an outstanding job. Congratulations Stephen!

Highlights of comments by US CEA's Miran: August 7, 2025

·         Fed's Waller hasn't succumbed to tariff derangement syndrome

·         Waller has built up an impressive track record in forecasting inflation and employment

·         There will be checks on the chip tariff exemption

·         Chip tariff exemption depends on good-faith efforts

·         Fed's Waller has met with the Trump team, but not with the President

·         The Trump team likes Fed's Waller's desire for rate cuts based on forecasts, and favors him for Fed Chair

The US Commerce Secretary Lutnick:

·         Trump has spoken to all key tech leaders in recent days

·         The US is likely to extend the China deadline for another 90 days

·         On China: I expect the deadline to be extended

The US Treasury Secretary Bessent:

·         TikTok Deal Is Separate From China Trade Deal

·         China is purchasing Russian oil

·         China tariffs could be considered at some point

·         The BRICS countries gathering is largely ceremonial (according to reports of BRICS combating US tariffs)

·         Fed's lack of logic on rates

·         Manufacturers consuming tariffs

Trump’s comments:

·         Asked if Putin needs to meet with Zelenskyy first: No

·         Putin does not need to meet Zelenskyy before I do

·         On India tariff: No talk until we get things resolved

·         On Russia Deadline: Up to Putin

·         Trump stands next to the board of BLS charts in the Oval Office, criticizing its data integrity.

·         Trump signed an executive order to allow 401(k) investors to access alternative assets (cryptocurrencies) for better returns and diversification.

·         Trump directs labor department to consider private assets in 401(k)s

·         Trump on Fed board pick: We will continue to search for a permanent replacement

·         On a visit to China: I'm most likely going in too not-too-distant future, maybe before the year is out.

Trump is also aiming for the Nobel Prize in economics for his tariff policies to change global trade dynamics; MAGA or MAWA.

·         The reason that The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board is always negative on “TRUMP,” and the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars we’re bringing into our Country through Tariffs, numbers that the U.S.A. has never seen before, is because they are China centric or, at a minimum, Globalists, and they would rather see China and the World, for reasons unknown, “WIN, BABY, WIN.” If the United States were not able to charge Tariffs to other Countries, it would be Economically defenseless and of no further force or effect. The only thing that can destroy our Country are Crooked, Radical Left Judges, of which there are many!

Conclusions

Trump is now increasingly looking like a ‘Modern day Hitler’; his dictator/autocrat like attitude and policies influenced by his most obedient inner circles is causing more harm to the US economy and causing US isolation globally; almost all major global leaders are now looking for the end of his 2^nd term in 2029 and also the 2026 mid-term election result amid his declining popularity. The weighted average rate of Trump’s tariff from August’25 would be ~20.5% vs 3.5% prior and the highest in 100 years, and the majority of it will have to be borne by US importers/producers and consumers, not global exporters or by FX leverage as being portrayed by the Trump admin.

Higher tariffs may affect the Goldilocks nature of the US economy, helped by cheaper imported goods and a strong/stable USD. Trump's politicization of Fed BLS (economic data) is also affecting the US institutional credibility and the USD. The US dollar index is now down over 12% over the last year. Although, weaker USD is theoretically good for US export-savvy MNCs, overall, it will be bad for the US economy as imported inflation will go up in conjunction with higher tariffs. Also, the increasing trend of ‘boycotting’ US goods in various countries, being bullied heavily by Trump, may affect US exports or sales of products by various US MNCs abroad. All these may affect the US economy in the coming days and result in MAWA (Make America Worse Again) contrary to MAGA (Make America Great Again).

Market impact:

On Thursday, August 7, 2025, Wall Street closed mixed. The S&P 500 edged down 0.1%, while the Dow-30 stumbled 224 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq 100 managed a modest 0.3% gain, initially buoyed by semiconductor stocks after Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported chips—excluding US-based manufacturers. However, sentiment quickly deteriorated on broader economic concerns as Trump tariffs kicked in in their full modified form after months of delay and dallying. USD slips, while Gold surged on the concern of stagflation and as Trump appointed his ‘Tariff Man’, obedient present CEA Miran as a temporary Fed Governor on the Fed board and indicated Waller as the next Fed Chair. Trump has also fired the BLS head, as the latest job data indicates a weak labor market under Trump 2.0. All these Trump actions will undermine the Fed, the US and the USD's credibility. The market is already discounting 50 bps cumulative Fed rate cuts in September and December’25.

On the corporate front, Eli Lilly shares tumbled after disappointing results from an obesity drug trial, while Intel slid following Trump’s call for the company’s CEO to resign—both moves adding to the market’s decline. Apple bucked the trend, surged after the company announced a $100 billion US investment plan, adding to prior commitments of $500B, in a sign of reconciliation after months of tariff threats escalation over Apple’s production facilities in India, from where most of the US iPhones are now exported to the US. Trump wants 100% production of all vital goods for Americans in the US rather than outside, but due to a lack of basic raw materials, the US has to import these and overall production costs may jump in the US for various other issues. Trump has to develop a China-like industrial and logistical infrastructure to compete with China; mere tariffs may not be sustainable in the long run, which will ultimately encourage inefficiencies on the part of US manufacturers.

Weekly Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500 and Gold

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 44800) now has to sustain over 45000 for a further rally towards 45300*/45800* and only sustaining above 45800, may further rally to 46100/46500-47100/47200 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 44950, DJ-30 may again fall to 44200/43900-43400/42400 and 41700/41200-40700/39900 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (23600) now has to sustain over 23800-24000 for a further rally to 24100/24450-24700/25000 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 23750-22900, NQ-100 may again fall to 22400/22200-21900/20900-20700/20200 and 19890/18300-17400/16400in the coming days.

Looking ahead, whatever may be the fundamental narrative, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 6400) now has to sustain over 6500 for a further rally to 6600/7000-7500/8300 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 6450-6375/6300-6250/6200, SPX-500may again fall to 6000/5800-5600/5300 in the coming days.

Technically Gold (CMP: 3400) has to sustain over 3405-3425 for a further rally to 3450/3475-3495/3505*, and even 3525/3555 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 3400-3360, Gold may again fall to 3340/3320-3300*/3280 and 3255*/3225*-3200/3165* and further to 3130/3115*-3075/3015-2990/2975-2960*/2900* and 2800/2750 in the coming days.

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