Trump-Zelenskyy-Putin talks may result permanent Ukraine peace

 

·         There may be a temporary Ukraine war air truce to be announced on August 18 after the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting at the White House.

·         The Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on August 15 may have significant progress and a negotiation framework for the permanent end of the Ukraine war and a sustainable, peaceful resolution.

·         Zelenskyy may have to acknowledge some territory to Russia, at least unofficially, in the form of Russia-occupied Eastern Ukraine (including Crimea), to end the bloody war.

·         As Zelenskyy’s political appeal is waning after 3 years of fierce war with Russia, Europe may now have no big issue to concede to Putin to end the Ukraine war.

·         Europe is the biggest loser of the ‘unjustified’ Ukraine war by Putin due to heavy energy dependency on Russia.

The Trump-Putin summit held on August 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, aimed to address the Russia-Ukraine war but concluded without a ceasefire agreement. Both leaders described the talks as "extremely productive," with Trump stating that "great progress" was made, though no specific deal was finalized. He emphasized, "There’s no deal until there’s a deal," and noted that discussions focused on achieving a potential permanent ceasefire, but details on unresolved issues were not disclosed. Putin highlighted that Russian concerns in Ukraine must be addressed for peace to be achieved.

The summit, which lasted nearly three hours, included a one-on-one meeting followed by a joint press conference where no questions were taken from the media by Trump on a rare occasion after such a big event. The scheduled post-press conference luncheon event was cancelled, and both Trump and Putin left Alaska. But overall comments by both leaders and body language (including the welcome of Putin by Trump) were positive, indicating significant progress. No one was an outright dramatic announcement of a Ukraine war ceasefire by either Trump or Putin at Alaska on August 15 without another key stakeholder Ukraine and Europe in confidence. Trump will now discuss Putin’s ceasefire proposals with Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy and NATO partners to make it forward and by August 25, there may be more clarity, including the much-awaited Ukraine war ceasefire, at least temporary, if not permanent.

Key points about the Trump-Putin Alaska summit:

·         No Ukrainian Representation: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was notably absent, raising concerns among European allies. Zelenskyy had expressed hope that the talks would lead to a "trilateral format" including Ukraine, but he rejected proposals for territorial concessions.

·         Territorial Swap Controversy: Trump had previously suggested "land swapping" as part of a potential deal, which Zelenskyy strongly opposed, stating Ukrainians would not "gift their land to the occupier." Trump later clarified that any territorial decisions would be left to Ukraine.

·         Strategic Location: The choice of Alaska, a former Russian territory, was highlighted by figures like Sen. Dan Sullivan as a symbolic reminder of U.S. negotiating strength. Alaska’s proximity to Russia (55 miles across the Bering Strait) and its military significance were also noted.

·         Public and Political Reactions: Protests occurred outside the base, alongside some Trump supporters rallying in favor. A Pew Research Center survey indicated 59% of Americans lacked confidence in Trump’s decision-making regarding Russia, with mixed views on the U.S. responsibility to aid Ukraine.

·         Ongoing Conflict: Russian drone strikes killed seven civilians in Ukraine overnight before the summit, and Russian forces made limited gains in Donetsk, raising concerns about Putin leveraging battlefield advances in negotiations.

·         Russian defenses downed 29 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) overnight (August 15), according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

·         Future Steps: Trump expressed hope for a second meeting involving Zelenskyy and possibly European leaders to continue peace efforts. He also warned of "economically severe" consequences for Russia if progress toward a ceasefire stalls.

The summit was a high-profile attempt to broker peace, but the lack of concrete outcomes and Zelenskyy’s exclusion underscored the challenges in reaching an agreement acceptable to all parties.

At the joint press conference following the Trump-Putin summit on August 15, 2025, Comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin:

President Putin’s Opening Remarks: 

"Mr. President, ladies and gentlemen, our negotiations have been held in a constructive atmosphere of mutual respect. We had very thorough negotiations. They were quite useful. I would like to thank once again my American counterpart for the proposal to travel out here to Alaska. It only makes sense that we’ve met here, because our countries, though separated by the oceans, are close neighbors. So when we’ve met, when I came out of the plane and I’ve said, 'Good afternoon, dear neighbor, very good to see you in good health and to see you alive.' I think that is very neighborly, and I think that’s some kind words that we can say to each other. We’re separated by the Strait of Bering, though there are only two islands between the Russian island and the U.S. island. They’re only four kilometers apart. We’re close neighbors, and it’s a fact."

On Historical Connections Between Russia and Alaska: 

"It’s also important that Alaska has to do with our common history between Russia and the U.S., and many positive events have to do with that territory. Still, there is tremendous cultural heritage from the Russian America, for example, Orthodox churches and more than 700 geographical names of Russian origin. During the Second World War, it was here in Alaska that the origin of the legendary air bridge for the supply of military aircraft and other equipment under the Lend-Lease program. It was a dangerous and treacherous route over the vast emptiness of ice. However, the pilots of both countries did everything to bring hope of victory. They risked their lives, and they gave it all for the common victory.

I was just in the city of Magadan in Russia, and there was a memorial there dedicated to the Russian and the U.S. pilots, and there were two flags, the U.S. flag and the Russian flag. And I know that here as well, there was such a memorial. There was a military burial place several kilometers away from here. The Soviet pilots who were buried there died during that dangerous mission. We’re thankful to the citizens and the government of the U.S. for carefully taking care of their memory. I think that’s very worthy and noble. We’ll always remember other historical examples when our countries defeated common enemies together in the spirit of battle camaraderie and alliance that supported each other and facilitated each other."

On Russia-U.S. Relations: 

As is known, Russian-American summits have not been held for more than four years. This has been a long time. The past period was very difficult for bilateral relations. And, let’s be honest, they have slid to the lowest point since the Cold War. And this is not good for our countries, or the world as a whole. Sooner or later, it was necessary to correct the situation, to move from confrontation to dialogue. And in this regard, a personal meeting of the heads of the two states was overdue.”

On the Ukraine Conflict: 

"As you well know and understand, one of the central issues has become the situation around Ukraine. We see the desire of the U.S. administration and President Trump personally to facilitate the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict, his desire to delve into the essence and understand its origins. I have said more than once that for Russia, the events in Ukraine are associated with fundamental threats to our national security. Moreover, we have always considered and consider the Ukrainian people, I have said this many times, brotherly, no matter how strange that may sound in today’s conditions. We have the same roots, and everything that is happening to us is a tragedy and a great pain.

Therefore, our country is sincerely interested in putting an end to this. But at the same time, we are convinced that for the Ukrainian settlement to be sustainable and long-term, all the root causes of the crisis must be eliminated. All of Russia’s legitimate concerns must be taken into account, and a fair balance in the security sphere in Europe and the world as a whole must be restored. I agree with President Trump — he spoke about this today — that Ukraine’s security must, without a doubt, be ensured. We are ready to work on this. I would like to hope that the understanding we have reached will allow us to get closer to that goal and open the way to peace in Ukraine. We expect that Kyiv and the European capitals will constructively perceive all of this and will not create any obstacles. And that they will not attempt to disrupt the emerging progress through provocation or behind-the-scenes intrigue."

On Economic and Cooperative Potential: 

"It is obvious that the Russian-American business and investment partnership has enormous potential. Russia and the United States have something to offer each other in trade, energy, the digital sphere, high tech, and space exploration. Cooperation in the Arctic, resumption of interregional contacts, including between our Far East and the American West Coast, also seems relevant. Incidentally, when the new administration came to power, bilateral trade started to grow. It’s still very symbolic. Still, we have a growth of 20%. I expect that today’s agreements will become a reference point not only for solving the Ukrainian problem, but will also launch the restoration of business-like, pragmatic relations between Russia and the United States.”

On Cooperation with Trump: 

"Overall, we have established very good business-like and trusting contact with President Trump. And I have every reason to believe that by moving along this path, we can — the quicker the better — reach an end to the conflict in Ukraine. I would like to remind you that in 2022, during the last contact with the previous administration, I tried to convince my previous American colleague that the situation should not be brought to the point of no return when it came to hostilities. And I said it quite directly back then that it’s a big mistake. Today, when President Trump is saying that if he were the President back then, there would be no war, and I’m quite sure that it would indeed be so. I can confirm that.”

Additional Context from Press Conference: 

Putin emphasized that the agreements reached with Trump would “pave the path toward peace in Ukraine,” though he cautioned Europe and Ukraine against any “backroom dealings” that could “torpedo” the progress made. He expressed hope that Kyiv and European capitals would engage constructively without provocations. Putin also referenced historical cooperation, such as the Lend-Lease program during World War II, to underscore the potential for positive U.S.-Russia relations. He noted the symbolic nature of the meeting in Alaska, highlighting its historical ties to Russia and its strategic proximity, with the Bering Strait separating the two nations by just 55 miles at its narrowest point.

Response of Putin to a Reporter’s Question: 

When asked by a reporter if Russia wanted Alaska back as part of a Ukraine deal, Putin reacted with shock, saying “What?” in Russian, then laughed and responded, “No, that’s history. We’re here for peace in Ukraine, not territory swaps.”

These remarks reflect Putin’s focus on framing the summit as a step toward peace, emphasizing historical ties, mutual respect, and the need to address Russia’s security concerns while warning against external interference in the peace process. No specific details on agreements were disclosed, and no questions were taken from the press.

Highlights of Putin’s comments:

·         Hopes Kyiv, Europe will take the agreements positively

·         Agrees with Trump: Ukraine security must be guaranteed

·         The war in Ukraine would not have occurred with Trump

·         US bilateral trade starts growing with Trump

·         Today sees agreements should be the starting point

·         Trump would have prevented the war in Ukraine

·         Today's agreements should be the starting point

·         Bilateral trade between us started growing

·         Hope Kyiv and Europe will view agreements positively

·         The Ukraine war is a tragedy, bringing great pain year on year

·         The Ukraine situation is one of the key issues

·         The Ukraine war is a tragedy, a great pain for us

·         The Ukraine situation was one of the key issues

·         The meeting has been long overdue

·         The discussion with Trump was sincere and substantive

·         The Alaska visit was timely, quite useful

At the joint press conference following the Trump-Putin summit on August 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, President Trump made the following remarks:

President Trump’s Opening Statement: 

"Good afternoon, everyone; It’s a great honor to be here in Alaska, the great state of Alaska, with President Putin. We’ve had a very productive meeting, extremely productive, one of the most productive I’ve ever had. We discussed a lot of things, but the main focus was on Ukraine, on stopping the killing, stopping the tremendous loss of life. Nobody wants to see people dying, and we want to get this resolved. We made great progress today, tremendous progress, but I’ll tell you, there’s no deal until there’s a deal. We’re not there yet, but we’re closer than we were before. And I think that’s a big thing.

I want to thank President Putin for coming all this way. It’s a long trip, but it’s worth it for peace. Alaska is a special place, a strong place, and we should be here because it shows the strength of America. We’re neighbors, Russia and the U.S., just across the Bering Strait, and we can work together when we want to."

On the Ukraine Conflict: Trump

"The situation in Ukraine is a tragedy, a total disaster. Thousands of people are dying, and it’s got to stop. We talked about a ceasefire, about how to get there, and we agreed on many points. Not all, but many. I won’t go into what we didn’t agree on because we’re going to keep working, and I’m very optimistic we can get this done. I told President Putin, and he agrees, that Ukraine’s security is important, but so is Russia’s security, and we need a deal that works for everybody. Ukraine has to be at the table, no question about it. I want Zelenskyy involved, and we’re going to make that happen, maybe in the next meeting. But we’re not giving up. We’re going to keep pushing for peace."

On U.S.-Russia Relations: Trump

"Russia and the United States, we’re two great countries. We don’t have to be enemies. We can do amazing things together. Look at what we did in World War II, fighting side by side. President Putin mentioned the Lend-Lease program, the pilots who flew right here in Alaska, risking their lives. That’s history we can build on. I think we can have a great relationship, a strong relationship, and it starts with meetings like this. People said this couldn’t happen, but here we are. And we’re talking, and that’s a big deal."

On the Choice of Alaska: Trump

"Alaska was the perfect place for this. It’s America’s frontier, it’s strong, it’s tough, just like our country. And it’s close to Russia, just a few miles across the water. That’s symbolic. It shows we can meet as neighbors, not as enemies. And let me tell you, the people of Alaska are thrilled we’re here. They know how important this is. I want to thank Senator Sullivan and the whole team here for making this happen. It’s a great day for Alaska, and it’s a great day for America."

On Future Steps: Trump

"We’re not done yet. This is just the start. I want to see another meeting, maybe with President Zelenskyy, maybe with some of our European friends. We’re going to keep working until we get peace. And if we don’t make progress, let me be clear, there will be consequences; Severe consequences, economically, for Russia. Nobody wants that, but we’re prepared. I think President Putin knows I mean business, and we’re going to keep the pressure on until we get this right."

Response to a Reporter’s Question: Trump

When a reporter asked if the U.S. would give Alaska back to Russia as part of a Ukraine deal, Trump laughed and said, "Are you kidding me? Alaska’s ours, and it’s staying ours. That’s a crazy question. We’re here to talk about peace in Ukraine, not some history lesson. Come on, next question—oh wait-- no questions. We’re done.”

Trump’s comments emphasized the progress made toward a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, the importance of continued dialogue, and the symbolic choice of Alaska as the meeting location. He expressed optimism about future talks while stressing that no final deal was reached and that Ukraine must be involved in any agreement. No questions were taken from the press beyond the single interruption noted.

Trump’s comments at the presser with Putin:

·         May visit Moscow Next Time

·         Will probably see you (Putin) again soon

·         Putin wants to see an end to killing like I do

·         Some things remain to be resolved

·         Many points were agreed upon in an extremely productive meeting

·         Just a few points left to agree on

·         I will begin making a few phone calls to Zelenskyy and European allies (NATO)

·         Deal only after there is a deal

·         Fantastic relationship always with Putin

·         No deal until there is a deal

·         Will contact Zelenskyy and NATO; it's up to them to agree

·         Always Had a Fantastic Relationship With Putin

·         Made great progress today

·         Praises Russian Business Representatives at Meeting

·         Deal only when there is a deal; They decide to agree

·         Agreed on major ones, have made some progress

·         Many points agreed on; no deal until there is a deal

·         Agreed on major ones, have made progress; many points we agreed on

In his Fox News interview with Sean Hannity following the Trump-Putin summit on August 15, 2025, President Trump shared several key remarks about the meeting and its implications for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He described the summit as “a very warm meeting between two very important countries,” emphasizing that it was “very good when they get along.” Trump rated the meeting “a 10” on a scale of one to ten, suggesting it was highly successful despite no ceasefire deal being reached. He claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin said the U.S. is now “hot as a pistol,” indicating newfound respect for the country.

Trump highlighted that “great progress” was made, with “many points” agreed upon, though he reiterated, “There’s no deal until there’s a deal,” underscoring that no final agreement was secured. He expressed a desire to stop the loss of lives, stating, “I want to see people stop dying,” and noted that any peace deal would require Ukraine’s agreement, saying, “Ukraine has to agree to it.” He suggested that Ukraine might resist a deal due to extensive financial support from the Biden administration and Europe, commenting, “Maybe they’ll say no because Biden handed out money like it was candy and Europe gave them a lot of money.”

On the prospect of revealing disagreements with Putin, Trump was reserved, stating, “No, I’d rather not. I guess somebody’s gonna go public with it, they’ll figure it out. But no, I don’t want to do that, I want to see if we can get it done.” He also acknowledged the importance of the negotiations for U.S. allies in Europe, responding to Hannity’s question about why he was pursuing the talks by saying, “Number one is lives, and number two is everything else. Wars are very bad.” These comments reflect Trump’s focus on progress toward peace while managing expectations about the challenges of securing a final agreement.

Highlights of Trump’s comments: August 15, 2025

·         Confident we can get this done in a fairly short time

·         Putin, Zelenskyy Both Want Me There

·         To consider Russia's penalty in 2-3 weeks, not today

·         Need not consider tariffs after meeting today

·         Meeting Today Went Well

·         Putin Wants to Solve the Problem

·         Zelenskyy should 'make a deal'

·         Putin wants to solve the problem

·         My advice to Zelenskyy: Make a deal

·         Rutte is a great guy, great relationship with NATO

·         To arrange a meeting between Putin, Zelenskyy

·         We're nearly there. Ukraine has to agree

·         The meeting was a very warm gathering

·         One or two important things remaining

·         Believes Putin respects our country

·         Close to a deal, Ukraine has to agree

·         The meeting was very cordial

·         We were side by side for nearly three hours, and agreed on a lot

·         Zelenskyy to get it done

·         We were together almost three hours, agreeing on a lot

·         Ukraine must agree, Zelenskyy must agree

·         Experienced private time with Putin

·         Trump does not comment on a completed agreement

·         Hopefully, it will get completed

·         I spoke again to Putin after the press conference

·         We made a lot of progress

·         Ukraine must agree, Zelenskyy needs to agree; it's not a done deal at all

·         I want to see people stop dying in Ukraine

·         Many points negotiated

·         Always had a great relationship with Putin

·         We are dealing very well with European countries

·         We made significant progress

·         Very good meeting today, but we will see

·         Agreed on many points

·         Dealing very well with European countries

·         A lot of points were negotiated

·         We agreed on many points

·         I want to see people stop dying in Ukraine

·         Very good meeting today, but we will see

·         Always had a great relationship with Putin

While returning from Alaska, August 16, aboard Air Force One, the US President Trump finished his conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other European leaders, with the concall lasting over an hour and a half. Trump briefed them on how his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska went. Zelensky will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., on Monday, August 18, 2025. Zelenskyy reiterated he wants Europeans to be involved in talks.

Trump has called for a peace agreement rather than a ceasefire to end the war in Ukraine, following his summit with Russian President Putin in Alaska. In a post on Truth Social, Trump described the Alaska summit as a “great and very successful day” and stated that he had spoken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European allies. He emphasized that all parties agreed the best approach to ending the “horrific war between Russia and Ukraine” is to pursue a direct peace agreement rather than a temporary ceasefire, which he noted often fails to hold.

On August 16, 2025, Trump posted on his Truth:

“A great and very successful day in Alaska! The meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia went very well, as did a late-night phone call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, and various European Leaders, including the highly respected Secretary General of NATO. It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often do not hold up. President Zelenskyy will be coming to D.C., the Oval Office, on Monday afternoon. If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin. Potentially, millions of people’s lives will be saved. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Zelenskyy tweeted on August 16, 2025:

“Today, following a conversation with President Trump, we further coordinated positions with European leaders. The positions are clear. A real peace must be achieved, one that will be lasting, not just another pause between Russian invasions.

Killings must stop as soon as possible, the fire must cease both on the battlefield and in the sky, as well as against our port infrastructure. All Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians must be released, and the children abducted by Russia must be returned. Thousands of our people remain in captivity – they all must be brought home. Pressure on Russia must be maintained while the aggression and occupation continue.

In my conversation with President Trump, I said that sanctions should be strengthened if there is no trilateral meeting or if Russia tries to evade an honest end to the war. Sanctions are an effective tool. Security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term, with the involvement of both Europe and the U.S. All issues important to Ukraine must be discussed with Ukraine’s participation, and no issue, particularly territorial ones, can be decided without Ukraine.”

“We had a long and substantive conversation with @POTUS. We started with one-on-one talks before inviting European leaders to join us. This call lasted for more than an hour and a half, including about an hour of our bilateral conversation with President Trump.

Ukraine reaffirms its readiness to work with maximum effort to achieve peace. President Trump informed about his meeting with the Russian leader and the main points of their discussion. It is important that America’s strength has an impact on the development of the situation.

We support President Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the USA, and Russia. Ukraine emphasizes that key issues can be discussed at the level of leaders, and a trilateral format is suitable for this.

On Monday, I will meet with President Trump in Washington, D.C., to discuss all of the details regarding ending the killing and the war. I am grateful for the invitation.

Europeans must be involved at every stage to ensure reliable security guarantees together with America. We also discussed positive signals from the American side regarding participation in guaranteeing Ukraine’s security. We continue to coordinate our positions with all partners. I thank everyone who is helping.

I thank our partners who are helping. Today, there is an important statement from European leaders that strengthens our position. We continue working together – Europeans, Americans, and everyone in the world who wants peace and stability in international relations.”

“I received a report from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. The front, the defense of positions, and up-to-date information on the intentions and movements of the Russian army. We are defending our positions along the entire front line, and for the second day in a row, we have achieved successes in some extremely difficult areas in the Donetsk region – in the direction of Dobropillia and Pokrovsk.

In particular, I want to commend the units of the 1st Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine “Azov”, the units of the 7th Corps of the Air Assault Forces, the units of the 38th Separate Marine Brigade named after Hetman Petro Sahaidachnyi, as well as the units of our 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade “Kholodnyi Yar.” The destruction of the occupiers who tried to infiltrate deeper into our positions continues. There has also been an important replenishment of Ukraine’s “exchange fund” with Russian soldiers.

The Commander-in-Chief also reported on the actions of our units in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. I am grateful to all our warriors for their resilience. Based on the political and diplomatic situation around Ukraine, and knowing Russia’s treachery, we anticipate that in the coming days the Russian army may try to increase pressure and strikes against Ukrainian positions to create more favorable political circumstances for talks with global actors.

We are documenting the movement and preparations of Russian troops. Of course, we will counteract, if necessary, asymmetrically. I asked the Commander-in-Chief to speak with combat commanders. Ukraine needs strong positions and truly tangible resistance to the enemy. I thank every one of our soldiers, sergeants, and officers who are carrying out combat missions and destroying the occupiers in the way that is necessary for Ukraine's confidence. Glory to Ukraine!”

“On the day of negotiations, the Russians are killing as well. And that speaks volumes. Recently, we’ve discussed with the U.S. and Europeans what can truly work. Everyone needs a just end to the war. Ukraine is ready to work as productively as possible to bring the war to an end, and we count on a strong position from America. Everything will depend on this – the Russians factor in American strength. Make no mistake – strength.”

Meanwhile, an emergency meeting of European Union ambassadors took place on Saturday, August 16, 2025, in Brussels as envoys from all 27 member states gathered to discuss the bloc's next steps, Politico reported, citing two EU diplomats. The officials met under strict conditions in a "restricted format" without aides or mobile phones to reduce the chance of leaks. The meeting followed United States President Donald Trump's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and his 90-minute call with EU officials and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

European leaders issued a joint statement following United States President Donald Trump's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The EU leaders praised Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine and pledged support for his upcoming talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as a potential trilateral summit. They called for "ironclad security guarantees" for Ukraine and welcomed Trump's pledge that the US is prepared to provide them. The leaders emphasized Ukraine's right to decide on its territory and rejected any border changes by force. They also vowed to maintain sanctions on Russia until a "just and lasting peace" is reached. The statement was signed by French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, European Council President Antonio Costa, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. European leaders were also invited to come along with Zelenskyy to DC on August 18.

On August 16, 2025, European leaders stated Trump's call regarding Ukraine:

·         The next step must involve more discussions with Zelenskyy

·         Ready to work with Trump, Zelenskyy on trilateral meeting

·         Ukraine must have security guarantees

·         It’s up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory

·         Strengthening Russia Sanctions until Peace

·         Ukraine to Decide on Territory

Air truce likely agreed for Ukraine war after Trump-Putin Alaska summit

A trilateral meeting between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine to discuss a possible peace deal is likely to take place in the coming week. U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin likely agreed to a temporary air truce during their Alaska summit on Friday, which would pause drone and missile strikes to create space for negotiations. Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to join talks in Washington, D.C., on Monday to discuss further steps.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev commented on the meeting between United States President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, calling it a step in restoring high-level talks between the two countries. Medvedev underlined that both Moscow and Washington placed responsibility for future progress on Ukraine and European partners, a point Trump echoed after the meeting. Medvedev described the discussions as calm and direct, without threats or ultimatums. He added that after nearly three hours of talks, Trump decided not to increase pressure on Russia, "at least for now."

Conclusions:

Overall, Trump’s body language in the presser with Putin may indicate some disappointment as Putin may have preferred a permanent Ukraine peace solution rather than the temporary band-aid of a ceasefire. Media addicted and also a Nobel Peace Prize aspirant, Trump wants media hypes about the Ukraine war ceasefire headlines. But beyond publicity and domestic political compulsions, the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on August 15, 2025, is a significant step toward the permanent end of the Ukraine war. Trump and even the NATO Head have no issue with Russia-occupied Eastern Ukraine, at least unofficially.

For Zelenskyy, although it’s a tough decision, he has no other option (card) as now almost 75% of Ukrainians want a speedy negotiated settlement of the Ukraine war rather than protracted destruction of the country and unlimited bloodshed. This is quite contrary to early 2022, when almost 75% of Ukrainians agreed to the bloody war. Also, the political appeal value of Zelenskyy is now almost nil in Europe after 3 years of relentless war with Russia; Europe is the biggest loser of the Ukraine war because of its dependency on fuel, food, and commodity imports from Russia.

The Ukraine war, resultant geopolitical fragmentations, and various economic sanctions on Russia affected not only the energy security of Europe but also overall economic activities, especially German industrial activities, which were dependent on cheap Russian energy. Europe has to buy ‘dirty Russian oil’ from Indian and Chinese refiners after the ‘whitewashing’. China and the US may be the biggest beneficiaries of the Ukraine war in terms of trade to fulfill the demand amid a lack of supplies, from consumer goods to military equipment and energy products. Russia, Ukraine and also European economies suffered a lot. Thus, almost all primary stakeholders of the Ukraine war are now vying for a face-saving exit.

Putin also wants the end of Western/US isolation in doing trade rather than a forever Ukraine war. He is also trying to use the Alaska summit with Trump as a platform to end Western isolation and restore Russia’s lost position as the number two global superpower, not only in terms of military/nuclear strengths, but also in terms of economy. And the deal maker and businessman man US President Trump, wants to make a deal with Putin not only for regular trade, but also for Rare Earth Materials (REEs) and other natural resources in Ukraine, and other areas. We may see a negotiated permanent peace agreement for the Ukraine war by August 25, 2025, so that Trump could be nominated as the next Nobel Peace Prize winner in September-Ovctober’2025.

But the question is whether Zelenskyy gives his approval for the mineral (REEs) rich Russia-occupied Eastern Europe instead of a protracted war?

As per an FT report, Putin told Trump he could relax some territorial claims in exchange for the Donetsk region. The Russian president offered at the Alaska summit to freeze the front lines if Ukraine withdraws from the crucial eastern area. Vladimir Putin demanded that Ukraine withdraw from the eastern Donetsk region as a first step toward ending Russia’s war, while Donald Trump urged European leaders to abandon efforts for a ceasefire with Moscow. Putin made this request during his meeting with Trump in Alaska on Friday, according to three people with direct knowledge of the talks. Trump relayed this demand to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders in a call on Saturday. Ceding Donetsk would give Moscow full control of a region it has partially occupied for over a decade, where its troops are advancing at the fastest rate since November.

In exchange, Putin offered to freeze the frontline in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where Russian forces hold significant territory, and to refrain from new attacks, according to two sources. Russian forces control about 70 percent of Donetsk, but Ukraine holds key western cities critical to its eastern defenses. Sources familiar with Zelenskyy’s thinking said he would not agree to surrender Donetsk but is open to discussing territory with Trump in Washington on Monday and in a potential trilateral meeting with Trump and Putin. The White House and Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, did not respond to requests for comment.

On Truth Social, Trump wrote that a “Peace Agreement” is the best way to end the war, not a ceasefire, which he said often fails, after speaking with European leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron. He added that a meeting with Putin would be scheduled if progress continues. The Kremlin said a trilateral meeting was not discussed in Anchorage.

Putin emphasized that his core demands, including ending Ukraine’s current statehood and rolling back NATO’s expansion, must be addressed, though a former Kremlin official noted he is open to territorial compromises if these are met. European leaders, alarmed by Trump’s earlier land-swap suggestions, were reassured by his promise to secure a halt in hostilities, but the three-hour summit produced no such commitment. Instead, it gave Putin, wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court since 2022, a chance to break his international isolation. Trump welcomed him with a red carpet in Anchorage and was seen joking with him before the three-hour private talks.

Potential impact on the market

A permanent peace or even a temporary ceasefire or air truce may be positive for equities, USD, EUR, and industrial metals like copper and silver. But it may be negative for Gold and oil to some extent amid reduced geopolitical tensions. And defense stocks may also lose. India may be a major beneficiary as Trump may soon withdraw his 25% punishment tariff for ‘reckless’ trading in Russian oil.

Weekly Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500 and Gold

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 45000) now has to sustain over 45600 for a further rally to 45800 and only sustaining above 45800, may further rally to 46100/46500-47100/47200 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 45300-44900, DJ-30 may again fall to 44200/43900-43400/42400 and 41700/41200-40700/39900 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (23800) now has to sustain over 24250 for a further rally to 24300/24450-24700/25000 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 24250/24000-23750/22900, NQ-100 may again fall to 22400/22200-21900/20900-20700/20200 and 19890/18300-17400/16400in the coming days.

Looking ahead, whatever may be the fundamental narrative, technically SPX-500 (CMP: 6475) now has to sustain over 6600 for a further rally to 6800/7000-7500/8300 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 6550/6500-6450-6375/6300-6250/6200, SPX-500may again fall to 6000/5800-5600/5300 in the coming days.

Technically Gold (CMP: 3325) has to sustain over 3360/3375-3405/3425 for a further rally to 3450/3475-3495/3505*, and even 3525/3555 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 3355, Gold may again fall to 3330/3320-3300/3280* and 3255*/3225*-3200/3165* and further to 3130/3115*-3075/3015-2990/2975-2960*/2900* and 2800/2750 in the coming days.

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