·          If Trump does not extend the tariff pause on India for another 90 days and Trump's tantrum intensifies, then USDINR may hit 92-95 in the coming days ·          The Indian economy may face a stagflation-like scenario under an all-out Trump trade war between the US and India ·          The US is India’s biggest export destination and inward remittance source, accounting for almost 15% of India’s FX/USD reserve ·          Trump’s bullying tactics and insulting comments are making it difficult for Modi to compromise and make a deal, even by September’25 to domestic political compulsion On July 30, 2025, as highly expected, U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods, effective August 1, 2025, citing India's high tariffs on U.S. goods and its purchases of Russian oil and military equipment. He also t...

  ·          Trump may impose 25% tariffs on India, but may also extend it for 90 days (in line with China) for a comprehensive BTA by October’25 ·          Adjusted tariffs & sales tax, US goods now face ~27% weighted average total tax in India (17% tariffs +15% IGST) vs ~11% for Indian goods in the US (3.5% tariffs +7.5% sales tax) ·          Trump is considering both VAT/GST along with tariffs in trade deals with other countries; the US has no Federal VAT/GST, but states have sales tax ~7.5% average As of July 29, 2025, the India-US trade deal remains in negotiation, with no final agreement reached before the August 1, 2025, deadline set by US President Trump for imposing reciprocal tariffs. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that "more negotiations" are needed, particularly due to India's firm stance on protecting its domestic market, especi...